To be honest I think with current downward trends I think it'll be a miracle if it equals last years numbers, especially since retail and developer support seems to be dwindling.

Tagging this thread. I hope the OP keeps up with the updates!

If the Vita gets a Wifi $50 price drop and 3G $100 price drop globally, then I could see Vita selling 8 million consoles in 2013.

At this point I am excited for what Vita games are in/coming to Japan, I just wanna buy english versions of those games (any region, since Vita is region free :D )

I updated the numbers, because I realized, that with the last update the numbers for previous weeks got adjusted down. I also introduced a gap-chart, that is showing the gap in the yearly sales. At the moment leads the Vita 2013 with 73,330 units, but next week the pre-release sales VGChartz tracked for Vita last year (I remember we all were pretty confused seeing the Vita turn up a week before release) are present in last years number, they account for 66,585 units. So expect next week to see this gap nearly be gone, and the week after that (the real release-week in US and europe) to see go the 2012-sales be better (negative gap). The week after that the price-cut announced for at least Japan will go into effect, we will see how much that will change the fate of the Vita.

I updated the numbers with this weeks numbers from the front-page. The gap between 2013/2012 is down to 13K, next week the Vita last year had sold more at this point than this year (except we see an unusual sales-spike).

The poll at the moment:
How the Vita will do in the second year?
Worse (<3 million) 70 19.18%
Same (3-4 million) 102 27.95%
Better (4-7 million) 153 41.92%
Doubling (>7 million) 40 10.96%
Total: 365

Although the data so far points to the same sales, better is the most chosen option and doubling + better (=194) > worse + same (=172).

Updated with current weeks numbers. As the launch in europe and the US kick in, the gap now is in favor of 2012. This gap will be growing in the following week. After that it is getting interesting.

Looking forward to your continued efforts.

I'm excited to see what change the monster month in Japan will do. I hope it will improve weekly sales permanently, so they never fall below 40k in Japan alone.

It's a long way to 40K in Japan, but we will see. I don't know why we have the momentary spike come from. shouldn't it spike on the upcoming price-drop? Anyways, we will see what will come sales-wise.