The poll at the moment:
How the Vita will do in the second year?
Worse (<3 million) 70 19.18%
Same (3-4 million) 102 27.95%
Better (4-7 million) 153 41.92%
Doubling (>7 million) 40 10.96%
Total: 365
Although the data so far points to the same sales, better is the most chosen option and doubling + better (=194) > worse + same (=172).