Yes, this looks exciting. Exactly the reason I created the thread for, I had hoped for some events that affect sales. Now we have to wait and look how strong these effects will be and what new momentum is generated.

Don't forget we've got a ~ 12k adjustment for USA figures incoming.  That's about 3k/week it was undertracked through February, so you'd hope they'd change their algorithm to take that into account for March.  So from 5k/week in NA to 8k/week.  With Europe, that'd put it around 16k/week, so if you're predicting it'll drop to 35k next week in Japan, that'd be pretty much spot on.  But there's "rest of the world", which last week counted for 8k sales.  I still think it'll be a few weeks until we see it at 50k/week (although, depends how steep the drop is in Japan, like you say).

As for making up ground, it'll unfortunately have to be all through the holidays.  I think "flat" is a pretty good assessment.  Unless there's a steeper price cut than I'm expecting or better 'surprise' games than I'm expecting.

Vita vs. Vita...

GO Vita!

I agree that flat is the most likely option at the moment. But the spike in Japan was much bigger than I expected. So maybe it could happen in US and europe too. Also we have yet to see how much the new baseline is in Japan. And the adjustment after NPD. So much hings to consider, that is exciting.

Updated the OP with fresh numbers including the adjustments. Vita was adjusted up. A second week of more than 60K in Japan help a lot. If a higher sales-level can be kept in the following weeks, the gap to last-years sales can be closed again.

OK, updated with this weeks numbers. One thing we can say for sure now: the price-cut in Japan alone will not help the Vita to sell better worldwide than last year. The global sales are already to a level the Vita last year only did later the year. So a price-cut in the west too or something else is needed. The gap is now bigger than 400K. What is yet not clear, is the new level of sales in Japan. We will see in the next weeks.

Updated with current numbers. another bump keeps the Vita from dropping after pricecut and games. If Sony can manage more momentum now...

Dat Japan graph.

I think It will do better than 2012, Good games are coming mostly to Japan this year, FUCK YOU JAPAN! (But keep making good games pls, thx. :P) I just want God Eater 2, Dragon's Crown, Phantasy Star Online 2 and KillZone to be release... I'm sure those games will be just enough to boost the Vita sales to the skies.

Updated with current weeks numbers. We have yet to wait to see where Vita sales will find the new plateau in Japan.

Actually you basically said 650K behind (half of that). Hmm, so far (end of march):

Vita 2012: 1,038,233

Vita 2013: 606,815

gap: 431,418

So far you about right, although the Vita does a bit better than you expected. And you were absolutely right about the pricecut. That has a pretty good effect so far, and it will be interesting how much it sells in Japan as new baseline after the dust settles. That may be well double of the sales of last year. If that is the case, the pricecut (+games) should be applied to the west too.