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Forums - Sales Discussion - Ni no Kuni western sales? Predictions?

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ishiki on 16 January 2013
Soriku said:

 

ishiki said:
A lot of JRPGs are exclusivedo you know was xenoblade overtracked? if it was I'm lowering my estimate :P. I was basing it on a highly reviewed game selling a bit better.


No actual numbers but considering every other JRPG VGC has tracked was overtracked (by comparing VGC numbers to NPD numbers, such as Persona 4 and P4G, Tales of Symphonia: DotNW, Vesperia, Graces F, Abyss 3D, Lost Odyssey, The Last Story...) there's not much reason to assume that Xenoblade isn't.

I guarantee every prediction in this thread will be over the mark when NPD numbers come in. The closest one will be BasilZero since his prediction was the lowest.


technically bristow was the lowest with 200k... BasilZero had 400K in west (counting europe), and I had 500k, but my prediction is around what xenoblade sold :P.


Obviously I want more home console JRPG's. But looking at it from an objective standpoint, it seems like a high risk investment where it's hard to crack a million. compared to portables where the development cost is substantially lower, and the tech doesn't hold back gameplay in JRPG's just eye-candy.



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Boutros on 16 January 2013

It's currently Amazon.com's best seller, a feet games like Xenoblade or Tales of Graces F never achieved. It's going to sell much better than most other JRPGs on consoles this gen (outside of the big names).

I think Namco will be very satisfied by the sales.

That being said I do believe we have it overtracked on the pre-order chart.



CityOfNoobs on 17 January 2013

I would be very surprised if the game reached 1 million WW lifetime. I just cannot see it doing any more than 300K in the US life time (and thats very optimistic) with another 200-300 for Europe. The numbers just are not there for it to sell enough copies to be a real financial success, my guess is they are really bummed by Japans numbers.

They might not lose money , but they are not going to make very much either.



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Mad55 on 17 January 2013
Soriku said:
People are going to be disappointed when NPD numbers come out for the game. VGC has it at 75k preorders right now but it's likely overtracked like every other JRPG on here.

For some perspective, Tales of Graces F only sold around 60k in NA LTD and there were a lot of people clamoring about that to release here. Persona 4 on PS2, one of the most popular JRPGs in recent years, sold 110k LTD in NA. KH Dream Drop Distance, a much bigger game in an established series sold a little over 220k first month. And yes VGC has them all overtracked.

Honestly if it cracks 100k in just NA I'd consider that a success. It's just not the nature of the JRPG these days to sell hundreds of thousands of copies.

Where did you get those numbers from?



Boutros on 17 January 2013
Soriku said:
Boutros said:

It's currently Amazon.com's best seller, a feet games like Xenoblade or Tales of Graces F never achieved. It's going to sell much better than most other JRPGs on consoles this gen (outside of the big names).

I think Namco will be very satisfied by the sales.

That being said I do believe we have it overtracked on the pre-order chart.


Xenoblade made it. Remember back when Monado was #1 when the campaign happened?

It was even in the top 10 trending Twitter topics WW at one point. Now, this was back when the game wasn't slated for NA yet, and I'm not sure how well the game did on Amazon once it was announced for NA, but Xenoblade came out like 8 months after the EU release and a lot of people had imported and a lot of hype had died down (relatively). Ninokuni is coming to NA/EU at the same time. I wish we had a better idea of what Xenoblade sold but at least Reggie said it did well for them. I think Ninokuni will do well too but we won't see how well it does until NPD.

All those pre-orders were cancelled though lol

Xenoblade was exclusive to Gamestop.



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Boutros on 17 January 2013

One thing that is nice is that NPD data for Ni No Kuni will illustrate only one week so we'll have the exact first week sales.



NintendoPie on 17 January 2013

I can't see this game doing more than 300k copies. Which is sad because this game really, truly deserves to have all the sales it can get. America just isn't a JRPG madhouse.



leatherhat on 17 January 2013

All I know is that vgchartz will overtrack it



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outlawauron on 17 January 2013
Soriku said:
Bristow9091 said:
ishiki said:

500K in the west to 0.7 million overall.  I'm being optimistic I think.

The 4 most comparable titles
Xenoblade sold 0.6 million in the west 0.16 in japan. and got stellar reviews.
The Last Story sold 0.26 in the west and 0.18 in japan.
Lost Odyssey 0.75 in the west 0.11 in Japan (this parts skewed because of obvious reasons.)
Persona 4 sold 0.42 in the west and 0.36 in japan, and got stellar reviews.

Star Oceans numbers are around there as well.

Vgchartz preorders are aweful in accuracy.

Wow, I never realised those games sold that much better in the west than in Japan... interesting, maybe that means Ni no Kuni will pull some impressive numbers in the west afterall, not to mention there's a lot of Studio Ghibli fans in the west too, which should help boost sales. And yeah, the preorder tracking on this site is pretty mediocre at best, but so is the game tracking anyway, look how many games and under and overtracked, lol, but oh well, it's not about that, I'm just using them as a guide anyway, I'm sure once the actual sales numbers release, frm NPD or wherever, the numbers will be radically different, but hopefully still in my prediction range, lol.



You shouldn't be surprised. All of them are overtracked in the West. I'm sorry but VGC JRPG tracking is really quite awful. I'm not trying to bash, but it just is. How about a recent example: Persona 4 Golden was going to sell 100k+ first week according to VGC preorders. Actual NPD numbers? A little over 50k. You're going to see a discrepancy with Ninokuni too. Hopefully it still sells like 100k LTD in US but that might be difficult. I really wish JRPGs sold more.

@Korean

That doesn't even make sense considering Ninokuni is on the DS too. Seriously, why do people say things like this? I've heard this a lot. This whole "history" or maybe even "honor" stuff. Is this a play on the "I'm an expert" meme? They won't port it because it won't be beneficial and won't sell enough to be worthwhile, not because of some "history" that you made up. Are Inazuma, Professor Layton, Fantasy Life, etc Nintendo exclusive because of some "history" too? Sorry for being harsh, but come on.

This is true. Although, some of the games listed above have been adjusted. LO was much near a million at one point.



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Otakumegane on 17 January 2013
NintendoPie said:
I can't see this game doing more than 300k copies. Which is sad because this game really, truly deserves to have all the sales it can get. America just isn't a JRPG madhouse.


They used to be more open towards them, I think part of the reason is the decline of Final Fantasy and other Jrpgs in terms of quality and storytelling, and part the rise of quality of games like Mass Effect/Bioshock.

Personally I think that Japan will always lose in the graphics front, Western devs simply have more resources. I would prefer if they stuck to great art style/gameplay and acceptable graphics. (The floating building things in Halo 4 didn't impact me as much as the moving pistons of Xenoblade). I mean sticking to the traditional turn-based combat might not be such a good idea anymore.



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