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Forums - Sales Discussion - Ni no Kuni western sales? Predictions?

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ishiki on 16 January 2013
kain_kusanagi said:

I'm thinking it will do about 150k - 200k this year and do about 500k - 600k lifetime. If it gets ported to other platforms I could see it breaking 1m. Since it's a remake of a NDS game and made by the 3rd party Level 5 and published by the 3rd party Namco I see no reason why it can not or should not be ported. All 3rd party games should be multiplatform unless a hardware company pays for it to be exclusive. If Namco wants to make real money they should have Level 5 or another company port the crap out of that sucker.


Level 5 themselves money would probably be better spent developing a new game that sells better. Namco could outsource it but well, they're illogical.



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kain_kusanagi on 16 January 2013
Bristow9091 said:
kain_kusanagi said:

I'm thinking it will do about 150k - 200k this year and do about 500k - 600k lifetime. If it gets ported to other platforms I could see it breaking 1m. Since it's a remake of a NDS game and made by the 3rd party Level 5 and published by the 3rd party Namco I see no reason why it can not or should not be ported. All 3rd party games should be multiplatform unless a hardware company pays for it to be exclusive. If Namco wants to make real money they should have Level 5 or another company port the crap out of that sucker.

It's not a remake, they're two seperate games...

The English translation of the DS version is "The Jet-Black Mage", whereas, as you know, the PS3 version is "Wrath of the White Witch"


"Level-5 also revealed that both versions are being developed separately from scratch, and as such will feature different data, artwork, graphics, specifications and story developments, while only retaining the same "story axle""

That sounds like a remake. A remake from the ground up, but a remake still.



Moonhero on 16 January 2013

I'm buying. So there is at least 1 sale.



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TheKoreanGuy on 16 January 2013
kain_kusanagi said:

I'm thinking it will do about 150k - 200k this year and do about 500k - 600k lifetime. If it gets ported to other platforms I could see it breaking 1m. Since it's a remake of a NDS game and made by the 3rd party Level 5 and published by the 3rd party Namco I see no reason why it can not or should not be ported. All 3rd party games should be multiplatform unless a hardware company pays for it to be exclusive. If Namco wants to make real money they should have Level 5 or another company port the crap out of that sucker.

Level-5 and Sony have a history together. Don't expect it to port over so easily.



ishiki on 16 January 2013
Bristow9091 said:
ishiki said:

500K in the west to 0.7 million overall.  I'm being optimistic I think.

The 4 most comparable titles
Xenoblade sold 0.6 million in the west 0.16 in japan. and got stellar reviews.
The Last Story sold 0.26 in the west and 0.18 in japan.
Lost Odyssey 0.75 in the west 0.11 in Japan (this parts skewed because of obvious reasons.)
Persona 4 sold 0.42 in the west and 0.36 in japan, and got stellar reviews.

Star Oceans numbers are around there as well.

Vgchartz preorders are aweful in accuracy.

Wow, I never realised those games sold that much better in the west than in Japan... interesting, maybe that means Ni no Kuni will pull some impressive numbers in the west afterall, not to mention there's a lot of Studio Ghibli fans in the west too, which should help boost sales. And yeah, the preorder tracking on this site is pretty mediocre at best, but so is the game tracking anyway, look how many games and under and overtracked, lol, but oh well, it's not about that, I'm just using them as a guide anyway, I'm sure once the actual sales numbers release, from NPD or wherever, the numbers will be radically different, but hopefully still in my prediction range, lol.

I'm personally a bit uncertain about how many extra ghibli fans that aren't JRPG fans would buy this game. It's gotten stellar reviews so I'm not sure it gains a whole lot sales-wise by being ghibli but we'll see. This is why I didn't bump up my sales higher. 



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ishiki on 16 January 2013
Bristow9091 said:
Dark Cloud series:
http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=dark+cloud

Rogue Galaxy:
http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=rogue+galaxy&publisher=&platform=&genre=&minSales=0&results=200

... I'm actually VERY impressed with the numbers in the west for these three games o.O


The initial dark cloud I'd say is an anomaly :P. It looked like zelda and PS2 had like no games.

I'm being positive with my numbers, I could see it doing your numbers too.

The more dissapointing thing is that it doesn't seem ghibli helped much in Japan, where they are extremely mainstream (stores all over have some sort of totoro keychain or something like that). 



Ji99saw on 16 January 2013

Not enough to justify it's creation, I heard it was a collaboration between Level 5 and Studio Ghibli not mention the music written by Joe Hisaishi and played by Tokyo Philharmonic Orchestra. It's a shame so much went into this game with very little return.



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ishiki on 16 January 2013
Soriku said:
Bristow9091 said:

Wow, I never realised those games sold that much better in the west than in Japan... interesting, maybe that means Ni no Kuni will pull some impressive numbers in the west afterall, not to mention there's a lot of Studio Ghibli fans in the west too, which should help boost sales. And yeah, the preorder tracking on this site is pretty mediocre at best, but so is the game tracking anyway, look how many games and under and overtracked, lol, but oh well, it's not about that, I'm just using them as a guide anyway, I'm sure once the actual sales numbers release, frm NPD or wherever, the numbers will be radically different, but hopefully still in my prediction range, lol.



You shouldn't be surprised. All of them are overtracked in the West. I'm sorry but VGC JRPG tracking is really quite awful. I'm not trying to bash, but it just is. How about a recent example: Persona 4 Golden was going to sell 100k+ first week according to VGC preorders. Actual NPD numbers? A little over 50k. You're going to see a discrepancy with Ninokuni too. Hopefully it still sells like 100k LTD in US but that might be difficult. I really wish JRPGs sold more.

@Korean

That doesn't even make sense considering Ninokuni is on the DS too. Seriously, why do people say things like this? I've heard this a lot. This whole "history" or maybe even "honor" stuff. Is this a play on the "I'm an expert" meme? They won't port it because it won't be beneficial and won't sell enough to be worthwhile, not because of some "history" that you made up. Are Inazuma, Professor Layton, Fantasy Life, etc Nintendo exclusive because of some "history" too? Sorry for being harsh, but come on.

do you know was xenoblade overtracked? if it was I'm lowering my estimate :P. I was basing it on a highly reviewed game selling a bit better.



Screamapillar on 16 January 2013

200-300k lifetime sales in the US. Don't see it going beyond that, unless it gets heavily bundled/discounted this fall for Christmas. Which is entirely possible. It is that special kind of game that makes people go "OH MAN I REALLY WISH I HAD A PS3". At least that's the effect the game is having on me.



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Wander_ on 16 January 2013

180k FW
1M LT