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Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction: Wii U to dominate & PS4 to fall behind - Jan. 2013

S.T.A.G.E. on 07 January 2013
*Sound Of Rain said:
I realize that this is just a prediction and could easily be wrong so don't shoot me!

@People saying that Sony could easily get back on top: How so? Your prediction is just as good as mine but I don't see it. The PS/PS2 were the obvious choices due to the massive exclusive 3rd party support. While the N64/GC/XB were getting a solid game every couple of months, the PS/PS2 got a couple good games a month. This was Sony's huge advantage. Microsoft took those exclusives and made them go multi-platform. Sony relied and still relies a ton on 3rd parties. I don't think Sony will ever dominate like that again. They might be #1 but not dominate.

You guys are right about online. Nintendo does lag behind in that area which could definitely be a huge factor. I think we have reached the point where graphics and such won't matter as much as before. Sony & Microsoft will likely release something new to get the casual market. This will also hurt Sony as IMO they don't have much appeal when it comes to the casuals without the massive exclusive 3rd party support.

Sony expanded the marketshare of gaming by a hundred million when they first entered the gaming industry. They have the loyality of third parties that Nintendo doesnt have and could only ever had if Sega was their only competition. In order for Nintendo to ever beat Sony legit they need the casuals or third parties. People took gaming hardware seriously for once and saw consoles as multimedia tools from outside of the industry.The stigma of Nintendos leading console being a toy followed by Sega was over. The dominance continued through to the PS2 era. Microsoft sensed the dominance and joined. Microsoft is vying for Sonys marketshare. The last gen Microsoft only created 24 million gamers for themselves, which means they are sitting on 50 million former Sony gamers. Without the casuals Nintendo is destrined to ride around the 30-40 million range. Sony took their pride and beat them with it in before this current gen.



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Mnementh on 07 January 2013
ninjablade said:
Mnementh said:
ninjablade said:

 

 i will take the bet.

 


Well, I have put it into my sig.

what if 720 launches first.

Does it matter?



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Mazty on 07 January 2013
S.T.A.G.E. said:
Mazty said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:
Nintendo might not ever recover that hardcore spot with gamers they had in the 90's. Sony rocked their worlds and had a far better relationship with third parties and Microsoft came and basically duplicated Sonys game. What Nintendo needs to go back to the casuals because that is what has kept them above the competition.


Agreed, but not really possible. The casuals tend to flock to whatever is popular then whatever is good as quality isn't a prequesite for a casual. Therefore to get the casuals back, Nintendo would have to gain the "in" status once again, which is very, very hard as they are now up against google, apple and the rest of the phone/tablet crowd. 


They tried to be the 'in' console with the Wii U but they are confusing people as to who they are truly up against.No casual will want a Wii U when they could just buy a tablet. Nintendos graphics are also current gen, so thats not going to impress casuals without a gimmick. They have left onlookers confused. Are they up against Sony? Microsoft? Apple? They havent made that clear distinction and their lineup leaves a lot to the imagination. Playing the "core" console is playing right into Sony and Microsofts hands. When it comes to the core audience they have already been spoken for. Mark my words, if the PS4 and 720 are reasonably priced, the Wii U is fucked outside of Japan. Whether the Wii won or not they are not the core console of choice which is generally predicted by adequate third party support. 

 

This is a good read about Nintendos issues with the core audiene, check it out:

http://www.nowgamer.com/news/1689492/wii_u_nintendo_shouldnt_compete_with_sony_microsoft_analyst.html

100% agree with everything there. If the next consoles show a significant jump in power as well, the wii u is doomed as it won't have any market other then die hard fans rooting for it. 



S.T.A.G.E. on 07 January 2013
Mazty said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:
Mazty said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:
Nintendo might not ever recover that hardcore spot with gamers they had in the 90's. Sony rocked their worlds and had a far better relationship with third parties and Microsoft came and basically duplicated Sonys game. What Nintendo needs to go back to the casuals because that is what has kept them above the competition.


Agreed, but not really possible. The casuals tend to flock to whatever is popular then whatever is good as quality isn't a prequesite for a casual. Therefore to get the casuals back, Nintendo would have to gain the "in" status once again, which is very, very hard as they are now up against google, apple and the rest of the phone/tablet crowd. 


They tried to be the 'in' console with the Wii U but they are confusing people as to who they are truly up against.No casual will want a Wii U when they could just buy a tablet. Nintendos graphics are also current gen, so thats not going to impress casuals without a gimmick. They have left onlookers confused. Are they up against Sony? Microsoft? Apple? They havent made that clear distinction and their lineup leaves a lot to the imagination. Playing the "core" console is playing right into Sony and Microsofts hands. When it comes to the core audience they have already been spoken for. Mark my words, if the PS4 and 720 are reasonably priced, the Wii U is fucked outside of Japan. Whether the Wii won or not they are not the core console of choice which is generally predicted by adequate third party support. 

 

This is a good read about Nintendos issues with the core audiene, check it out:

http://www.nowgamer.com/news/1689492/wii_u_nintendo_shouldnt_compete_with_sony_microsoft_analyst.html

100% agree with everything there. If the next consoles show a significant jump in power as well, the wii u is doomed as it won't have any market other then die hard fans rooting for it. 


Makes sense, but I dont believe the Wii U is doomed. It will turn profit but being that this new gen wont last very long (about five years or so) Nintendo will gain around 30-40 console sales, I believe. Nintendo will turn profit on the Wii U sooner than later, but they will not win for sure with the way they set up the Wii. They had no plans to follow up that crowd at all. Lets see what they do with the Wii Fit to gather female sales. You're so right though, even the analysts know right now that the majority of the Wii U owners are the die hard fans and children.



*Sound Of Rain on 07 January 2013
S.T.A.G.E. said:
*Sound Of Rain said:
I realize that this is just a prediction and could easily be wrong so don't shoot me!

@People saying that Sony could easily get back on top: How so? Your prediction is just as good as mine but I don't see it. The PS/PS2 were the obvious choices due to the massive exclusive 3rd party support. While the N64/GC/XB were getting a solid game every couple of months, the PS/PS2 got a couple good games a month. This was Sony's huge advantage. Microsoft took those exclusives and made them go multi-platform. Sony relied and still relies a ton on 3rd parties. I don't think Sony will ever dominate like that again. They might be #1 but not dominate.

You guys are right about online. Nintendo does lag behind in that area which could definitely be a huge factor. I think we have reached the point where graphics and such won't matter as much as before. Sony & Microsoft will likely release something new to get the casual market. This will also hurt Sony as IMO they don't have much appeal when it comes to the casuals without the massive exclusive 3rd party support.

Sony expanded the marketshare of gaming by a hundred million when they first entered the gaming industry. They have the loyality of third parties that Nintendo doesnt have and could only ever had if Sega was their only competition. In order for Nintendo to ever beat Sony legit they need the casuals or third parties. People took gaming hardware seriously for once and saw consoles as multimedia tools from outside of the industry.The stigma of Nintendos leading console being a toy followed by Sega was over. The dominance continued through to the PS2 era. Microsoft sensed the dominance and joined. Microsoft is vying for Sonys marketshare. The last gen Microsoft only created 24 million gamers for themselves, which means they are sitting on 50 million former Sony gamers. Without the casuals Nintendo is destrined to ride around the 30-40 million range. Sony took their pride and beat them with it in before this current gen.

Do you really think the 70 Million PS3 owners are all Sony's core audience? In order for any System to sell extremely well and come out on top they need to have casual support. As I said, the PS/PS2 were not massive due to Sony changing the industry it was because they basically had 95% of the 3rd Party games with many of them being exclusive. It was a no-brainier choice for the casual crowd. Not to take the accomplishment away from Sony because it was a great idea to make Systems that developers wanted to exclusively develop for. They no longer have that kind of 3rd Party dominance.

 

@ the people saying Japan won't matter much: I disagree. I think it will be close in the U.S & Europe & Nintendo will win based off Japan



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TheLastStarFighter on 07 January 2013

Sony didn't expand the market, the market expanded as people grew up. People that grew up with Nintendos and Segas were now adults and would buy games as adults while there were a whole new batch of kids coming up and playing games. Older people were slow to adapt to games but those that grew up with them loved them and continued to play them. What Sony did do that Nintendo didn't was make a game system that looked adult and was fine to have in a grown-ups living room. It was also affordable and appealed to the mass market. In the 7th gen, Nintendo switched things up and made the most adult-oriented system and sold it at a good price. Sony went the opposite direction and sold and expensive machine that only the most dedicated tech-heads would spend $600 to buy. The term 'casuals' as a group is stupid. It's the mass-market that makes an industry leader, and those people want something that is sylish, trendy and affordable. They want games like Mario, WiiSports, GTA and COD. Sony milked them, Nintendo milked them and now MS has gotten a good chunck of them more recently. Who will get them and what it will take to get them in the coming years is TBD.



Max King of the Wild on 07 January 2013
TheLastStarFighter said:
Sony didn't expand the market, the market expanded as people grew up. People that grew up with Nintendos and Segas were now adults and would buy games as adults while there were a whole new batch of kids coming up and playing games. Older people were slow to adapt to games but those that grew up with them loved them and continued to play them. What Sony did do that Nintendo didn't was make a game system that looked adult and was fine to have in a grown-ups living room. It was also affordable and appealed to the mass market. In the 7th gen, Nintendo switched things up and made the most adult-oriented system and sold it at a good price. Sony went the opposite direction and sold and expensive machine that only the most dedicated tech-heads would spend $600 to buy. The term 'casuals' as a group is stupid. It's the mass-market that makes an industry leader, and those people want something that is sylish, trendy and affordable. They want games like Mario, WiiSports, GTA and COD. Sony milked them, Nintendo milked them and now MS has gotten a good chunck of them more recently. Who will get them and what it will take to get them in the coming years is TBD.



the wii didn't expand the market, the market expanded as people grew up.



S.T.A.G.E. on 07 January 2013
TheLastStarFighter said:
Sony didn't expand the market, the market expanded as people grew up. People that grew up with Nintendos and Segas were now adults and would buy games as adults while there were a whole new batch of kids coming up and playing games. Older people were slow to adapt to games but those that grew up with them loved them and continued to play them. What Sony did do that Nintendo didn't was make a game system that looked adult and was fine to have in a grown-ups living room. It was also affordable and appealed to the mass market. In the 7th gen, Nintendo switched things up and made the most adult-oriented system and sold it at a good price. Sony went the opposite direction and sold and expensive machine that only the most dedicated tech-heads would spend $600 to buy. The term 'casuals' as a group is stupid. It's the mass-market that makes an industry leader, and those people want something that is sylish, trendy and affordable. They want games like Mario, WiiSports, GTA and COD. Sony milked them, Nintendo milked them and now MS has gotten a good chunck of them more recently. Who will get them and what it will take to get them in the coming years is TBD.


Before Sony joined the gaming industry the market was at 90 million. When  Sony  joined it was 190 million+ and rose over the 200 million mark with the gen after that. 



James_ on 07 January 2013
ninjablade said:
James_ said:
ninjablade said:

720 has a much better chance then the wii u, where its a huge failure in the uk and will probably be a failure in the usa.

I don't think so, Nintendo has more famous franchises than Sony and adds to it the fact that Wii used to be pre-judged by its graphics not so good as PS3. Now the Wii U will not have this problem.

franchises are not more famouse then sony's, if that was the case why did'nt n64 and gamecube outsell ps and ps2, and wii u will be competing with 720 and ps4 and it will get blown out of the water interms of graphics, people need to understand the motion tech is the only thing that sold the wii, not the games.

Truth, motion tech was one of the reasons that sold Wii around the world, but, i think now it's time to focus at the games, because people already know motion tech, so it won't be a big new how was at Nintendo Wii, and after in Xbox with Kinnect. Even PS4 will have a better motion technology, it won't be the best thing at the next gen, no way. And of course that games sold Wii, It has great games, MH, Fire emblem, Super Mario Galaxy, The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess and Skyward Sword and others. About PS and PS2, that time Sony used to make games from the same kind of Nintendo, so they were big rivals at the games.

If someone used to like RPG and adventure games, he wouldn't know where buy it.



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Alby_da_Wolf on 07 January 2013

I see PS4 being launched last and staying 3rd for a while, then closing the gap later. But with a launch price within $400, the start will be less difficult than PS3's one.
Anyway, being launched 1st, if Nintendo manages better the later years of its life, Wii U should be able to keep the leadership with fewer troubles, and without the dramatic drop Wii suffered far too long before its successor's launch.



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