If they can't get third-party developers on their side, Nintendo's other option would be to get more aggressive with it's first-party titles. The current 3DS line-up seems fine for now, it's just the Wii U that needs a bit more push.

You've been doing a lot of these threads lately Spurge. I'm not particularly impressed.

And success is a relative thing. The WiiU and 3DS will never sell as well as the Wii and DS, that is almost a given. But it doesn't mean it will sell badly. Do we count the PS3 as a 'failure' for being quite a way off hitting half the numbers of the PS2? I don't think so. If Sony are happy and content with those numbers, then good.

Similarly, you can't compare the success of a console which has no competition. If, say launch aligned, the WiiU sells 50 million in its first 5 years (will almost certainly be more), but the 720 sells 35mil and the PS4 28mil, then would you call the WiiU a 'failure'? No; you have to consider the fact the market has changed. The only reason people are citing the Vita as a 'failure' is because of its relative sales to its predecessor and to its direct competitor, which shows the market is (mostly) still there, but the Vita can't capitalise on it.

And, at the end of the day, it's been out for 2 weeks. It launched in Japan 2 days ago. It's sold over a million units now (almost certainly), and is sold out in many areas. How can we consider it a failure already?

I'm not sure it can fail. Nintendo don't sell their consoles at a loss. Even if it dosent sell as many units as the Wii did it will still make money, and thus it will still be moderately successful. At this point its too early to tell anything, however I'm more looking forward to the next Sony and Microsoft consoles.

I think we have to make donations to Spurge, so that he can afford a WiiU. He makes a ton of WiiU-doom threads, because he can't pay for one.

Fail as in selling less than its predecessor?...not making a profit?...being a 'new Gamecube'?

If you measure success as a system selling more than its predecessor, then the Wii U most likely has already 'failed', as I don´t think anyone (reasonable) expects it to.

If you mean making profit, regardless of being number 1, 2 or 3 in sales, then it´ll be successful (by how much, we´ll see)..even with the abysmal Gamecube they were able to make a profit.

just out of curiosity - what are the other 4?

This is something that has been bothering me.  Many, many, many times on these forums I've read that the PS3 was a failure because it lost market share from the PS2.  I've seen that expressed and hammered on dozens of times.  Now, suddenly, there seems to be a lot less of that opinion.  It really kind of bugs me.

Personally, I thought it was silly with the PS3 and now I think it's silly with the Wii U.  Generations and landscapes change.  The conditions are different, what the competition is doing is different.  One generation does not determine what happens in the next.

As far as the Wii U goes, it's not going to fail.  It's launching first and it still has Nintendo games.  At the very least, it's going to do modest numbers.  It has enough backing by Nintendo fans alone to be a mild success.  I just don't see much potential for failure.

Can I see the market research to back this up?

The market research I have seen is that we're moving more and more towards a multi-platform society, where households are buying more videogame consoles and a greater number of devices that can also play games. The bread and butter of Nintendo's market is the multi-child household where, between siblings, parents and friends there is a large demand for local multiplayer; and their movement towards "attracting" core gamers is in the hopes that the father/older-brother would buy a couple more games for these systems in a year rather than buying a new system for these games. From personal experience, I see far more parents who want their children to disconnect from personal electronic devices like iPods, Phones and Tablets, and to interact more with the family; and many of them have had good family experiences with the Wii in the past.

On top of that there is a social gamer and nostalgia gamer demographic which Nintendo has a strong hold on.

Ultimately, of the 100+ million households in North America alone (probably) 50 to 75 Million fall into demographics that Nintendo can be highly successful with; and (on a worldwide basis) there is (probably) 200 to 300 Million potential sales for the Wii U. Of course, Nintendo will probably not be able to get most of these households to buy a Wii U but their sales will not be limited by lack of people to sell it to.

What´s rule #4?

Until the last 2 (or so) years the PS3 wasn't just losing some marketshare, it was tracking to have lost the majority of the PS2's marketshare.

If the Wii U sells to 80% or more of the Wii's market it is difficult to say that the lower sales alone indicate the system was a failure, if it starts selling at 60% of the rate there is more of an argument, and if it is selling at less than 50% of the rate I think it is fair to say that it was a blunder.