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Fail as in selling less than its predecessor?...not making a profit?...being a 'new Gamecube'?

If you measure success as a system selling more than its predecessor, then the Wii U most likely has already 'failed', as I don´t think anyone (reasonable) expects it to.

If you mean making profit, regardless of being number 1, 2 or 3 in sales, then it´ll be successful (by how much, we´ll see)..even with the abysmal Gamecube they were able to make a profit.