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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Why PS4 won't be cutting edge, and neither will Xbox3 - or Why Nintendo might win next gen

 

Is my reasoning sound?

Hellz yeah! Spot on 265 33.42%
 
I never thought of it like that.... 69 8.70%
 
So it's the mental institution next for you? 101 12.74%
 
So very, very wrong 266 33.54%
 
I'm a pussy with no opinion 88 11.10%
 
Total:789
Tachikoma on 28 January 2013
DanneSandin said:
Tachikoma said:
DanneSandin said:
 

Well, I'm not especially teach savvy, so I can't argue anything in your post, and I can hardly understand half of it. But I'll just say that this probably is a relatively early build of the game, and it won't come out until the end of this year, or perhaps even next year. This will of course mean that Monolith will have quite some time left to refine it. Xenoblade looked a lot better when it released than the first footage we saw of it, so I'm expecting this to be true this time around again.

And I still don't think we'll see a similar situation as Wii vs PS360 this gen; assuming the Wii U costs ca $250 to manufacture, excluding the gamepad, PS720 will costs a whole lot more if we're to have another Wii situation. And as I stated in the OP, Sony can't afford to lose too much money on the PS4. Even losing $50/sold console will hit them hard, so we can expect the PS4 to be sold around $400, and lets just assume it also costs $400 to manufacture; that's a $150 difference between Wii U and PS4 then. Surely, that won't allow the PS4 to be miles a head of the Wii U - power wise. Certainly not a Wii - PS3 gap anyways...

In the end no matter how powerful a peice of hardware is, it's up to the software developers to push the envlope - what you're missing here is that the architecture of the new Sony and Microsoft console is very similar to the PC, with all three platforms as close to standardized as they've ever been before, it will be  possible for develops of all three platforms to push the envelope of graphical quality, knowing the hardware has the grunt to back up.

While the WiiU may in some ways be more powerful than the ps3 and 360, it's weaker in others. There is no question of the power gap between the wiiU and the next consoles from Sony and Microsoft, putting it simply the WiiU is more or less on a graphical quality level of early to mid life ps3/360 games, neither Microsoft or Sony can afford to release a console that isn't a big jump in quality and performance over their current consoles, as being the one to release the inferior console would result in a massive bullet hole in their proverbial foot, as it just wouldn't sell.

The first generation titles will be noticeably better than the current (end of life) titles for PS3 and 360, with higher native resolutions and framerates, the higher native resolution putting across the additional visual quality nicely, with things only getting more and more detailed as engines improve.

For example, Once UE4 finds it's way to the nextbox and PS4, expect a large crop of games running on it to look absolutely beautiful.

As you use a unreleased game with nearly a year left of development as you quality milestone, let me use the following:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gBcS759H8_E

A tech demonstration of Unreal Engine 4 running realtime 3D, something that will be possible on the next generation xbox and playstation.

Then of course the following, Agni's Philosophy, which will ultimately be an engine for the next generation xbox and playstation square enix games.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UVX0OUO9ptU

Unless Sony and Microsoft screw up completely with their release and pricing (which neither are likely to do) the WiiU will bedead last in terms of power and quality.

While I do agree that MS and Sony needs to release more powerful systems to stay competitive, I hope you're wrong that we'll see i similar situation as Wii vs PS360 again (but that might just be my wishful thinking).

I'd actually love to see you chip in on this discussion: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=136756 where they're trying to figure out all the rumors going around about next gen and how this will affect them, and such things. Some thinks PS720 will be a lot more powerful than Wii U (like you), and others think they'll be much more close in terms of power (kinda like me). They are a whole lot more knowledgeable than me, so i think you'll get much better answers there. And you'll probably get more relevant questions than you can get from me.

But if it's true what you're saying, that PS720 will be leaps and bounds ahead of Wii U, how do you think this will affect Nintendo? From what I can gather the engines will be extremely scalable this gen; UE4 is supposed to be able to work on smartphones, and wouldn't this mean it'll work on Wii U as well?

And would you perhaps mind sharing with us what kind of USP both new systems will have? =) I've heard Sony is ditching Duelshock and will have a controller similar to Wii U's GamePad... And I've heard crazy rumors of Kinect2 being able to display images on the floor and other surfaces in the room...

I'll be as blunt as possible - the reason i'm not confused as to if the consoles will or will not be a far step in terms of power over the WiiU, and the reason i'm not taking part in that discussion is because i've nothing i can legally add to it (NDA), I do know the projected final specifications for both consoles as they're very similar to the revision 2 PS4 sdk and revision 3 xbox ____ sdk.



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DanneSandin on 28 January 2013
Tachikoma said:
DanneSandin said:
Tachikoma said:

In the end no matter how powerful a peice of hardware is, it's up to the software developers to push the envlope - what you're missing here is that the architecture of the new Sony and Microsoft console is very similar to the PC, with all three platforms as close to standardized as they've ever been before, it will be  possible for develops of all three platforms to push the envelope of graphical quality, knowing the hardware has the grunt to back up.

While the WiiU may in some ways be more powerful than the ps3 and 360, it's weaker in others. There is no question of the power gap between the wiiU and the next consoles from Sony and Microsoft, putting it simply the WiiU is more or less on a graphical quality level of early to mid life ps3/360 games, neither Microsoft or Sony can afford to release a console that isn't a big jump in quality and performance over their current consoles, as being the one to release the inferior console would result in a massive bullet hole in their proverbial foot, as it just wouldn't sell.

The first generation titles will be noticeably better than the current (end of life) titles for PS3 and 360, with higher native resolutions and framerates, the higher native resolution putting across the additional visual quality nicely, with things only getting more and more detailed as engines improve.

For example, Once UE4 finds it's way to the nextbox and PS4, expect a large crop of games running on it to look absolutely beautiful.

As you use a unreleased game with nearly a year left of development as you quality milestone, let me use the following:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gBcS759H8_E

A tech demonstration of Unreal Engine 4 running realtime 3D, something that will be possible on the next generation xbox and playstation.

Then of course the following, Agni's Philosophy, which will ultimately be an engine for the next generation xbox and playstation square enix games.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UVX0OUO9ptU

Unless Sony and Microsoft screw up completely with their release and pricing (which neither are likely to do) the WiiU will bedead last in terms of power and quality.

While I do agree that MS and Sony needs to release more powerful systems to stay competitive, I hope you're wrong that we'll see i similar situation as Wii vs PS360 again (but that might just be my wishful thinking).

I'd actually love to see you chip in on this discussion: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=136756 where they're trying to figure out all the rumors going around about next gen and how this will affect them, and such things. Some thinks PS720 will be a lot more powerful than Wii U (like you), and others think they'll be much more close in terms of power (kinda like me). They are a whole lot more knowledgeable than me, so i think you'll get much better answers there. And you'll probably get more relevant questions than you can get from me.

But if it's true what you're saying, that PS720 will be leaps and bounds ahead of Wii U, how do you think this will affect Nintendo? From what I can gather the engines will be extremely scalable this gen; UE4 is supposed to be able to work on smartphones, and wouldn't this mean it'll work on Wii U as well?

And would you perhaps mind sharing with us what kind of USP both new systems will have? =) I've heard Sony is ditching Duelshock and will have a controller similar to Wii U's GamePad... And I've heard crazy rumors of Kinect2 being able to display images on the floor and other surfaces in the room...

I'll be as blunt as possible - the reason i'm not confused as to if the consoles will or will not be a far step in terms of power over the WiiU, and the reason i'm not taking part in that discussion is because i've nothing i can legally add to it (NDA), I do know the projected final specifications for both consoles as they're very similar to the revision 2 PS4 sdk and revision 3 xbox ____ sdk.

Yeah, I feared you could talk about it because of NDA... Well, I hope you'll hang around here long enough that you'll be able to contribute a lot when both consoles are released =) Would make for a lot of fun discussions!

But still, it would be intriguing to hear your thoughts about the Wii U; lets just forget the specs and stuff like that - is it possible to share your thoughts about how well/bad Wii U will do?



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

Tachikoma on 28 January 2013

My direct employers aren't currently making use of a wiiu devkit directly, my access to one is through a seperate softare developer we're close with, so my experience with the platform is limited.

I can say that with the right push the WiiU is capable of much nicer graphics than it's currently showing off (even better than those used in the xeno game trailer), but the current sdk version cripples what's possible because certain hardware aspects are either not well supported or dumbed down through the sdk, once nintendo updates the sdk to give better access to the hardware things can go much smoother, which is probably what the xeno game guys are waiting for.

With that said though, Nintendo have a tendancy to keep such software to hardware translations to themselves for first party releases to ensure superiority over third party software, leaving it up to the third party developer to 'hack up' their software to basically cheat the system, when we were working with the C we had to do similar things with the hardware to get it to do what we wanted because the sdk didn't give us the level of access to hardware we needed to do it properly.

It's only a speculation of course that they 'save the best for themselves' but in the past Nintendo *have* released several first party titles with a newer version of their SDK before making it available to third party.



DanneSandin on 28 January 2013
Tachikoma said:

My direct employers aren't currently making use of a wiiu devkit directly, my access to one is through a seperate softare developer we're close with, so my experience with the platform is limited.

I can say that with the right push the WiiU is capable of much nicer graphics than it's currently showing off (even better than those used in the xeno game trailer), but the current sdk version cripples what's possible because certain hardware aspects are either not well supported or dumbed down through the sdk, once nintendo updates the sdk to give better access to the hardware things can go much smoother, which is probably what the xeno game guys are waiting for.

With that said though, Nintendo have a tendancy to keep such software to hardware translations to themselves for first party releases to ensure superiority over third party software, leaving it up to the third party developer to 'hack up' their software to basically cheat the system, when we were working with the C we had to do similar things with the hardware to get it to do what we wanted because the sdk didn't give us the level of access to hardware we needed to do it properly.

It's only a speculation of course that they 'save the best for themselves' but in the past Nintendo *have* released several first party titles with a newer version of their SDK before making it available to third party.

Seriously, that's fucking retarded of Nintendo... Hopefully they won't do the same thing this gen since they want better 3rd party support, but who knows?! But it's nice to hear that we might get better graphics than the XenoTrailer! Not all that surprised, since it's a fairly early game on Wii U, but nice nonetheless to hear.



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

goopy20 on 28 January 2013

Wow that is one wall of text but I stopped reading after the first line. "Sony's console won't be a huge leap because they can't afford it..." This whole theory is  based on that assumption and it makes no sense. Sony might be in a bad spot but the ps3 is still one of it's few products that is going very well, outselling the Xbox and Wii-U combined, for months in a row now. So instead of thinking Sony will cut corners with the ps4, you can also asume they are going all out to make sure it's most important cashcow will stay on top.

The Wii-U never had a chance because it's not competing with the ps4/ Xbox720, it's competing with the current gen and has no visual edge over the 7 year old consoles that were already on the market. Next gen graphics will obviously take a leap over the ps3 and Xbox720 because if it doesn't, then why the hell would MS and Sony spend a fortune building those things? The only chance Nintendo has is by showing that the tabet controller really is the best gameplay invention since the mouse and keyboard, and personally i just don't see that happening.



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DanneSandin on 28 January 2013
goopy20 said:

Wow that is one wall of text but I stopped reading after the first line. "Sony's console won't be a huge leap because they can't afford it..." This whole theory is  based on that assumption and it makes no sense. Sony might be in a bad spot but the ps3 is still one of it's few products that is going very well, outselling the Xbox and Wii-U combined, for months in a row now. So instead of thinking Sony will cut corners with the ps4, you can also asume they are going all out to make sure it's most important cashcow will stay on top.

The Wii-U never had a chance because it's not competing with the ps4/ Xbox720, it's competing with the current gen and has no visual edge over the 7 year old consoles that were already on the market. Next gen graphics will obviously take a leap over the ps3 and Xbox720 because if it doesn't, then why the hell would MS and Sony spend a fortune building those things? The only chance Nintendo has is by showing that the tabet controller really is the best gameplay invention since the mouse and keyboard, and personally i just don't see that happening.

The PS3 certainly is not a cash cow. In fact, it's lost tons of money over the years, and it's not until fairly recently it has started to make money. But in the long run it will have lost most of the money PS2 managed to gain. And it's around this point I base my whole theory; in the end, PS3 has lost Sony money, and I don't think they want or can allow that again.



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

Tachikoma on 28 January 2013
DanneSandin said:
goopy20 said:

Wow that is one wall of text but I stopped reading after the first line. "Sony's console won't be a huge leap because they can't afford it..." This whole theory is  based on that assumption and it makes no sense. Sony might be in a bad spot but the ps3 is still one of it's few products that is going very well, outselling the Xbox and Wii-U combined, for months in a row now. So instead of thinking Sony will cut corners with the ps4, you can also asume they are going all out to make sure it's most important cashcow will stay on top.

The Wii-U never had a chance because it's not competing with the ps4/ Xbox720, it's competing with the current gen and has no visual edge over the 7 year old consoles that were already on the market. Next gen graphics will obviously take a leap over the ps3 and Xbox720 because if it doesn't, then why the hell would MS and Sony spend a fortune building those things? The only chance Nintendo has is by showing that the tabet controller really is the best gameplay invention since the mouse and keyboard, and personally i just don't see that happening.

The PS3 certainly is not a cash cow. In fact, it's lost tons of money over the years, and it's not until fairly recently it has started to make money. But in the long run it will have lost most of the money PS2 managed to gain. And it's around this point I base my whole theory; in the end, PS3 has lost Sony money, and I don't think they want or can allow that again.

That's not really entirely accurate, only the hardware has lost them money, they have made money on software for the consoles entire lifetime.

They lost much, much more money with TV's and other hardware per year than they have with the PlayStation 3, Incidentally the PlayStation 2 was sold at a loss intially too, Sony made the bulk of their playstation money with the software not the hardware.

With that said, it's inaccurate to broadly state that the PlayStation has induced nothing but loss "until recently". the money made from software sales, and PSN is actually much higher than the money lost from hardware and operation costs for it's online service.

As he states, if anything the initial loss of the PlayStation 3 and the glaring fact it's common knowledge the 360 performs better with multi platform games, and the worlds reaction to the PlayStation 3's price, is enough to know that the next PlayStation console will not use untested tech such as the Cell processor, and certainly will not be sold at a retarded pricetag.

With that said, simply moving to an AMD based processor alone greatly reduces the unit cost compared to running the Cell processor, despite the newer CPU being much more powerful, it's all about perspective and reasoning.

I predict at a reveal of both xbox 720 and playstation 4 at E3, with microsoft dropping the pricetag at E3 and sony holding off until TGS to reveal the price of their consol, but with both consoles hitting selves mid november.



think-man on 28 January 2013

Im guessing the Wii U will do 50m LTD and im pretty sure sony can top that.



 

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Turkish on 28 January 2013
DanneSandin said:
goopy20 said:

Wow that is one wall of text but I stopped reading after the first line. "Sony's console won't be a huge leap because they can't afford it..." This whole theory is  based on that assumption and it makes no sense. Sony might be in a bad spot but the ps3 is still one of it's few products that is going very well, outselling the Xbox and Wii-U combined, for months in a row now. So instead of thinking Sony will cut corners with the ps4, you can also asume they are going all out to make sure it's most important cashcow will stay on top.

The Wii-U never had a chance because it's not competing with the ps4/ Xbox720, it's competing with the current gen and has no visual edge over the 7 year old consoles that were already on the market. Next gen graphics will obviously take a leap over the ps3 and Xbox720 because if it doesn't, then why the hell would MS and Sony spend a fortune building those things? The only chance Nintendo has is by showing that the tabet controller really is the best gameplay invention since the mouse and keyboard, and personally i just don't see that happening.

The PS3 certainly is not a cash cow. In fact, it's lost tons of money over the years, and it's not until fairly recently it has started to make money. But in the long run it will have lost most of the money PS2 managed to gain. And it's around this point I base my whole theory; in the end, PS3 has lost Sony money, and I don't think they want or can allow that again.

Fairly recently? The PS3 has been profitable since early 2010, roughly 3 years ago, or half a gen ago.

The PS4 won't have a catastrophic launch like the PS3. PS3 was expensive thanks to the Cell and Bluray drive. Sony was losing close to $300 on PS3s at launch, they lost a lot of money on Cell r&d. Blurays today are cheap, Sony will go with AMD for both their cpu and gpu next gen. All recent rumours point towards an economical  8core cpu and a beast 7900M gpu at nearly 2tf. If these rumours turn out to be true then its nearly 10x ps3. Sony can take a small loss with PS4, they'll profit from the software.

You expect 3rd parties to embrace the WiiU, but it doesn't even get PS360 ports like Tomb Raider, Bioshock, Dark Souls 2, DmC, Crysis, MGR, how can you expect WiiU to get Watch Dogs, Cyberpunk, Starwars 1313?



Tachikoma on 28 January 2013
Turkish said:
DanneSandin said:
goopy20 said:

Wow that is one wall of text but I stopped reading after the first line. "Sony's console won't be a huge leap because they can't afford it..." This whole theory is  based on that assumption and it makes no sense. Sony might be in a bad spot but the ps3 is still one of it's few products that is going very well, outselling the Xbox and Wii-U combined, for months in a row now. So instead of thinking Sony will cut corners with the ps4, you can also asume they are going all out to make sure it's most important cashcow will stay on top.

The Wii-U never had a chance because it's not competing with the ps4/ Xbox720, it's competing with the current gen and has no visual edge over the 7 year old consoles that were already on the market. Next gen graphics will obviously take a leap over the ps3 and Xbox720 because if it doesn't, then why the hell would MS and Sony spend a fortune building those things? The only chance Nintendo has is by showing that the tabet controller really is the best gameplay invention since the mouse and keyboard, and personally i just don't see that happening.

The PS3 certainly is not a cash cow. In fact, it's lost tons of money over the years, and it's not until fairly recently it has started to make money. But in the long run it will have lost most of the money PS2 managed to gain. And it's around this point I base my whole theory; in the end, PS3 has lost Sony money, and I don't think they want or can allow that again.

Fairly recently? The PS3 has been profitable since early 2010, roughly 3 years ago, or half a gen ago.

The PS4 won't have a catastrophic launch like the PS3. PS3 was expensive thanks to the Cell and Bluray drive. Sony was losing close to $300 on PS3s at launch, they lost a lot of money on Cell r&d. Blurays today are cheap, Sony will go with AMD for both their cpu and gpu next gen. All recent rumours point towards an economical  8core cpu and a beast 7900M gpu at nearly 2tf. If these rumours turn out to be true then its nearly 10x ps3. Sony can take a small loss with PS4, they'll profit from the software.

You expect 3rd parties to embrace the WiiU, but it doesn't even get PS360 ports like Tomb Raider, Bioshock, Dark Souls 2, DmC, Crysis, MGR, how can you expect WiiU to get Watch Dogs, Cyberpunk, Starwars 1313?

At this point i very much doubt the PS3/360 will get Watch Dogs, it's most likely been put on the backburner and will probably be announced as a PC/PS4/720 title, since they didn't bother to show or hint at platforms at last years reveal - the graphical side of the game looked a little too polished to work on a ps3/360 too, but not polished enough to be a next gen title, which you would expect if it was initially intended for ps3/360 but target platform got changed and left it in limbo.

With that in mind, i very much doubt WiiU would see it, either, unless they made a spin-off or the consoles own similar but ultimately crippled version as they did with the Call Of Duty franchise