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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Why PS4 won't be cutting edge, and neither will Xbox3 - or Why Nintendo might win next gen

 

Is my reasoning sound?

Hellz yeah! Spot on 265 33.42%
 
I never thought of it like that.... 69 8.70%
 
So it's the mental institution next for you? 101 12.74%
 
So very, very wrong 266 33.54%
 
I'm a pussy with no opinion 88 11.10%
 
Total:789
DanneSandin on 28 January 2013
Tachikoma said:
DanneSandin said:
goopy20 said:

Wow that is one wall of text but I stopped reading after the first line. "Sony's console won't be a huge leap because they can't afford it..." This whole theory is  based on that assumption and it makes no sense. Sony might be in a bad spot but the ps3 is still one of it's few products that is going very well, outselling the Xbox and Wii-U combined, for months in a row now. So instead of thinking Sony will cut corners with the ps4, you can also asume they are going all out to make sure it's most important cashcow will stay on top.

The Wii-U never had a chance because it's not competing with the ps4/ Xbox720, it's competing with the current gen and has no visual edge over the 7 year old consoles that were already on the market. Next gen graphics will obviously take a leap over the ps3 and Xbox720 because if it doesn't, then why the hell would MS and Sony spend a fortune building those things? The only chance Nintendo has is by showing that the tabet controller really is the best gameplay invention since the mouse and keyboard, and personally i just don't see that happening.

The PS3 certainly is not a cash cow. In fact, it's lost tons of money over the years, and it's not until fairly recently it has started to make money. But in the long run it will have lost most of the money PS2 managed to gain. And it's around this point I base my whole theory; in the end, PS3 has lost Sony money, and I don't think they want or can allow that again.

That's not really entirely accurate, only the hardware has lost them money, they have made money on software for the consoles entire lifetime.

They lost much, much more money with TV's and other hardware per year than they have with the PlayStation 3, Incidentally the PlayStation 2 was sold at a loss intially too, Sony made the bulk of their playstation money with the software not the hardware.

With that said, it's inaccurate to broadly state that the PlayStation has induced nothing but loss "until recently". the money made from software sales, and PSN is actually much higher than the money lost from hardware and operation costs for it's online service.

As he states, if anything the initial loss of the PlayStation 3 and the glaring fact it's common knowledge the 360 performs better with multi platform games, and the worlds reaction to the PlayStation 3's price, is enough to know that the next PlayStation console will not use untested tech such as the Cell processor, and certainly will not be sold at a retarded pricetag.

With that said, simply moving to an AMD based processor alone greatly reduces the unit cost compared to running the Cell processor, despite the newer CPU being much more powerful, it's all about perspective and reasoning.

I predict at a reveal of both xbox 720 and playstation 4 at E3, with microsoft dropping the pricetag at E3 and sony holding off until TGS to reveal the price of their consol, but with both consoles hitting selves mid november.

Yes, they might have made money on every sold SW, but as far as I understand it, the HW loss far outweighs the SW income. I'll just post a few links to show case this fact.

http://www.gamasutra.com/blogs/edit/img/images/blog/5615/profit_chart_consoles.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/S6asr.png

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v110/will_42/graph_consoles_cum.jpg

http://i55.tinypic.com/95wwi1.png

http://i.imgur.com/P7pGx.png

And 2 articles:

http://www.vg247.com/2009/10/30/sony-ps-division-has-lost-4-7-billion-since-launching-ps3/

http://www.1up.com/news/sony-lost-ps3-ps2

Granted, all of these are a couple of years old, but it goes to show how much money PS3 has cost Sony, and why they cannot make the same mistake with the PS4. And their TV business might be off even worse, but that division will effect the whole company, and this in turn only makes it more pivotal that PS4 makes Sony money from the get go (which in turn will mean that they can't sell it at loss and that they can't pump up the specs too much). I've already stated in the OP that Sony will not lose more than $50/console - and even that's a stretch. And it's this assumption that makes me think PS4 won't be a leap over Wii U as PS3 was over Wii.

I agree they will not launch it with a "retarded pricetag" (I liked that wording!), they will probably launch it around $400, and since they need as much money as they can get, they won't take a huge hit on it - at most $50, and even that's a stretch imo.

And I'm also sure they'll hit store shelves around November - perhaps as early as October even. Where and when the unveiling will take place I'm not as sure of...



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

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DanneSandin on 28 January 2013
Tachikoma said:
Turkish said:
DanneSandin said:
goopy20 said:

Wow that is one wall of text but I stopped reading after the first line. "Sony's console won't be a huge leap because they can't afford it..." This whole theory is  based on that assumption and it makes no sense. Sony might be in a bad spot but the ps3 is still one of it's few products that is going very well, outselling the Xbox and Wii-U combined, for months in a row now. So instead of thinking Sony will cut corners with the ps4, you can also asume they are going all out to make sure it's most important cashcow will stay on top.

The Wii-U never had a chance because it's not competing with the ps4/ Xbox720, it's competing with the current gen and has no visual edge over the 7 year old consoles that were already on the market. Next gen graphics will obviously take a leap over the ps3 and Xbox720 because if it doesn't, then why the hell would MS and Sony spend a fortune building those things? The only chance Nintendo has is by showing that the tabet controller really is the best gameplay invention since the mouse and keyboard, and personally i just don't see that happening.

The PS3 certainly is not a cash cow. In fact, it's lost tons of money over the years, and it's not until fairly recently it has started to make money. But in the long run it will have lost most of the money PS2 managed to gain. And it's around this point I base my whole theory; in the end, PS3 has lost Sony money, and I don't think they want or can allow that again.

Fairly recently? The PS3 has been profitable since early 2010, roughly 3 years ago, or half a gen ago.

The PS4 won't have a catastrophic launch like the PS3. PS3 was expensive thanks to the Cell and Bluray drive. Sony was losing close to $300 on PS3s at launch, they lost a lot of money on Cell r&d. Blurays today are cheap, Sony will go with AMD for both their cpu and gpu next gen. All recent rumours point towards an economical  8core cpu and a beast 7900M gpu at nearly 2tf. If these rumours turn out to be true then its nearly 10x ps3. Sony can take a small loss with PS4, they'll profit from the software.

You expect 3rd parties to embrace the WiiU, but it doesn't even get PS360 ports like Tomb Raider, Bioshock, Dark Souls 2, DmC, Crysis, MGR, how can you expect WiiU to get Watch Dogs, Cyberpunk, Starwars 1313?

At this point i very much doubt the PS3/360 will get Watch Dogs, it's most likely been put on the backburner and will probably be announced as a PC/PS4/720 title, since they didn't bother to show or hint at platforms at last years reveal - the graphical side of the game looked a little too polished to work on a ps3/360 too, but not polished enough to be a next gen title, which you would expect if it was initially intended for ps3/360 but target platform got changed and left it in limbo.

With that in mind, i very much doubt WiiU would see it, either, unless they made a spin-off or the consoles own similar but ultimately crippled version as they did with the Call Of Duty franchise

I actually think that WD will be released on PS360, WiiU AND PS720; releasing it only on PS720 and PC would mean far less sales since the instal base of those systems won't be too big until late 2014...



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

DanneSandin on 28 January 2013
Turkish said:
DanneSandin said:
goopy20 said:

Wow that is one wall of text but I stopped reading after the first line. "Sony's console won't be a huge leap because they can't afford it..." This whole theory is  based on that assumption and it makes no sense. Sony might be in a bad spot but the ps3 is still one of it's few products that is going very well, outselling the Xbox and Wii-U combined, for months in a row now. So instead of thinking Sony will cut corners with the ps4, you can also asume they are going all out to make sure it's most important cashcow will stay on top.

The Wii-U never had a chance because it's not competing with the ps4/ Xbox720, it's competing with the current gen and has no visual edge over the 7 year old consoles that were already on the market. Next gen graphics will obviously take a leap over the ps3 and Xbox720 because if it doesn't, then why the hell would MS and Sony spend a fortune building those things? The only chance Nintendo has is by showing that the tabet controller really is the best gameplay invention since the mouse and keyboard, and personally i just don't see that happening.

The PS3 certainly is not a cash cow. In fact, it's lost tons of money over the years, and it's not until fairly recently it has started to make money. But in the long run it will have lost most of the money PS2 managed to gain. And it's around this point I base my whole theory; in the end, PS3 has lost Sony money, and I don't think they want or can allow that again.

Fairly recently? The PS3 has been profitable since early 2010, roughly 3 years ago, or half a gen ago.

The PS4 won't have a catastrophic launch like the PS3. PS3 was expensive thanks to the Cell and Bluray drive. Sony was losing close to $300 on PS3s at launch, they lost a lot of money on Cell r&d. Blurays today are cheap, Sony will go with AMD for both their cpu and gpu next gen. All recent rumours point towards an economical  8core cpu and a beast 7900M gpu at nearly 2tf. If these rumours turn out to be true then its nearly 10x ps3. Sony can take a small loss with PS4, they'll profit from the software.

You expect 3rd parties to embrace the WiiU, but it doesn't even get PS360 ports like Tomb Raider, Bioshock, Dark Souls 2, DmC, Crysis, MGR, how can you expect WiiU to get Watch Dogs, Cyberpunk, Starwars 1313?

The exact wording isn't as important as the fact that PS3 has lost Sony more money than they've got from it. Just take a look at one of my replies to Tachikoma; I provided her with some links showing how much Sony lost under a few years time. Granted, those links don't show the picture, since none offers facts for the last few years. But they should still offer some sort of understanding of the HUGE losses they made.

Hopefully PS4 will do a lot better than PS3, but looking at the Vita doesn't show much of an improvement...



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

Tachikoma on 28 January 2013
DanneSandin said:
Tachikoma said:
DanneSandin said:
goopy20 said:

Wow that is one wall of text but I stopped reading after the first line. "Sony's console won't be a huge leap because they can't afford it..." This whole theory is  based on that assumption and it makes no sense. Sony might be in a bad spot but the ps3 is still one of it's few products that is going very well, outselling the Xbox and Wii-U combined, for months in a row now. So instead of thinking Sony will cut corners with the ps4, you can also asume they are going all out to make sure it's most important cashcow will stay on top.

The Wii-U never had a chance because it's not competing with the ps4/ Xbox720, it's competing with the current gen and has no visual edge over the 7 year old consoles that were already on the market. Next gen graphics will obviously take a leap over the ps3 and Xbox720 because if it doesn't, then why the hell would MS and Sony spend a fortune building those things? The only chance Nintendo has is by showing that the tabet controller really is the best gameplay invention since the mouse and keyboard, and personally i just don't see that happening.

The PS3 certainly is not a cash cow. In fact, it's lost tons of money over the years, and it's not until fairly recently it has started to make money. But in the long run it will have lost most of the money PS2 managed to gain. And it's around this point I base my whole theory; in the end, PS3 has lost Sony money, and I don't think they want or can allow that again.

That's not really entirely accurate, only the hardware has lost them money, they have made money on software for the consoles entire lifetime.

They lost much, much more money with TV's and other hardware per year than they have with the PlayStation 3, Incidentally the PlayStation 2 was sold at a loss intially too, Sony made the bulk of their playstation money with the software not the hardware.

With that said, it's inaccurate to broadly state that the PlayStation has induced nothing but loss "until recently". the money made from software sales, and PSN is actually much higher than the money lost from hardware and operation costs for it's online service.

As he states, if anything the initial loss of the PlayStation 3 and the glaring fact it's common knowledge the 360 performs better with multi platform games, and the worlds reaction to the PlayStation 3's price, is enough to know that the next PlayStation console will not use untested tech such as the Cell processor, and certainly will not be sold at a retarded pricetag.

With that said, simply moving to an AMD based processor alone greatly reduces the unit cost compared to running the Cell processor, despite the newer CPU being much more powerful, it's all about perspective and reasoning.

I predict at a reveal of both xbox 720 and playstation 4 at E3, with microsoft dropping the pricetag at E3 and sony holding off until TGS to reveal the price of their consol, but with both consoles hitting selves mid november.

Yes, they might have made money on every sold SW, but as far as I understand it, the HW loss far outweighs the SW income. I'll just post a few links to show case this fact.

http://www.gamasutra.com/blogs/edit/img/images/blog/5615/profit_chart_consoles.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/S6asr.png

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v110/will_42/graph_consoles_cum.jpg

http://i55.tinypic.com/95wwi1.png

http://i.imgur.com/P7pGx.png

And 2 articles:

http://www.vg247.com/2009/10/30/sony-ps-division-has-lost-4-7-billion-since-launching-ps3/

http://www.1up.com/news/sony-lost-ps3-ps2

Granted, all of these are a couple of years old, but it goes to show how much money PS3 has cost Sony, and why they cannot make the same mistake with the PS4. And their TV business might be off even worse, but that division will effect the whole company, and this in turn only makes it more pivotal that PS4 makes Sony money from the get go (which in turn will mean that they can't sell it at loss and that they can't pump up the specs too much). I've already stated in the OP that Sony will not lose more than $50/console - and even that's a stretch. And it's this assumption that makes me think PS4 won't be a leap over Wii U as PS3 was over Wii.

I agree they will not launch it with a "retarded pricetag" (I liked that wording!), they will probably launch it around $400, and since they need as much money as they can get, they won't take a huge hit on it - at most $50, and even that's a stretch imo.

And I'm also sure they'll hit store shelves around November - perhaps as early as October even. Where and when the unveiling will take place I'm not as sure of...

All of those images and articles either focus on sony as a whole or on hardware only - everyone knows they made a loss with hardware between launch and around 2010, and everyone knows Sony has been hemmoraging money left and right as TV and hifi equipment sales dwindle.

Consider this, if you will, 770 games, times by the average number of games sold (i'd estimate around 500k since some sell less and some sell millions), times by something along the lines of $5 which would a low estimat eof what sony makes per retail game sold (high estimate being $15), and with a low estimate you end up with :

1,925,000,000 to 5,775,000,000 billion dollars, if we take the launch to profitable operaing loss of 4,695,000,202 into consideration and offset that,

at the point at which sony made thei first dollar off of hardware, they were either : -$2770000202 or +$1079999798, take into consideration the gains made in hardware and software sales of PSN and you end up roughly and broadly speaking, seeing the PS3 more or less break even.

That does not mean the PS4 will follow suit, it just means Sony after enjoying two generations on top, got burned by their choices and will have to learn from their mistakes or perish, and i seriously doubt given the 'leaked' speaks that they will perish.



Tachikoma on 28 January 2013
DanneSandin said:
Tachikoma said:
Turkish said:
DanneSandin said:
goopy20 said:

Wow that is one wall of text but I stopped reading after the first line. "Sony's console won't be a huge leap because they can't afford it..." This whole theory is  based on that assumption and it makes no sense. Sony might be in a bad spot but the ps3 is still one of it's few products that is going very well, outselling the Xbox and Wii-U combined, for months in a row now. So instead of thinking Sony will cut corners with the ps4, you can also asume they are going all out to make sure it's most important cashcow will stay on top.

The Wii-U never had a chance because it's not competing with the ps4/ Xbox720, it's competing with the current gen and has no visual edge over the 7 year old consoles that were already on the market. Next gen graphics will obviously take a leap over the ps3 and Xbox720 because if it doesn't, then why the hell would MS and Sony spend a fortune building those things? The only chance Nintendo has is by showing that the tabet controller really is the best gameplay invention since the mouse and keyboard, and personally i just don't see that happening.

The PS3 certainly is not a cash cow. In fact, it's lost tons of money over the years, and it's not until fairly recently it has started to make money. But in the long run it will have lost most of the money PS2 managed to gain. And it's around this point I base my whole theory; in the end, PS3 has lost Sony money, and I don't think they want or can allow that again.

Fairly recently? The PS3 has been profitable since early 2010, roughly 3 years ago, or half a gen ago.

The PS4 won't have a catastrophic launch like the PS3. PS3 was expensive thanks to the Cell and Bluray drive. Sony was losing close to $300 on PS3s at launch, they lost a lot of money on Cell r&d. Blurays today are cheap, Sony will go with AMD for both their cpu and gpu next gen. All recent rumours point towards an economical  8core cpu and a beast 7900M gpu at nearly 2tf. If these rumours turn out to be true then its nearly 10x ps3. Sony can take a small loss with PS4, they'll profit from the software.

You expect 3rd parties to embrace the WiiU, but it doesn't even get PS360 ports like Tomb Raider, Bioshock, Dark Souls 2, DmC, Crysis, MGR, how can you expect WiiU to get Watch Dogs, Cyberpunk, Starwars 1313?

At this point i very much doubt the PS3/360 will get Watch Dogs, it's most likely been put on the backburner and will probably be announced as a PC/PS4/720 title, since they didn't bother to show or hint at platforms at last years reveal - the graphical side of the game looked a little too polished to work on a ps3/360 too, but not polished enough to be a next gen title, which you would expect if it was initially intended for ps3/360 but target platform got changed and left it in limbo.

With that in mind, i very much doubt WiiU would see it, either, unless they made a spin-off or the consoles own similar but ultimately crippled version as they did with the Call Of Duty franchise

I actually think that WD will be released on PS360, WiiU AND PS720; releasing it only on PS720 and PC would mean far less sales since the instal base of those systems won't be too big until late 2014...


The development costs of re-writing the code to work on the PS3, and porting over the assets to work with the WiiU (or depending on the current state, basically making another game), would be much higher than title profits - consider this, if Forza 2 came out on xbox 1 and xbox 360, after the xbox 360 had been released, do you think the xbox 1 version would have sold enough copies to have been worthwhile developing?, from agames developers standpoint i'll tell you - it wouldnt



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DanneSandin on 28 January 2013
Tachikoma said:
DanneSandin said:
Tachikoma said:
DanneSandin said:
goopy20 said:

Wow that is one wall of text but I stopped reading after the first line. "Sony's console won't be a huge leap because they can't afford it..." This whole theory is  based on that assumption and it makes no sense. Sony might be in a bad spot but the ps3 is still one of it's few products that is going very well, outselling the Xbox and Wii-U combined, for months in a row now. So instead of thinking Sony will cut corners with the ps4, you can also asume they are going all out to make sure it's most important cashcow will stay on top.

The Wii-U never had a chance because it's not competing with the ps4/ Xbox720, it's competing with the current gen and has no visual edge over the 7 year old consoles that were already on the market. Next gen graphics will obviously take a leap over the ps3 and Xbox720 because if it doesn't, then why the hell would MS and Sony spend a fortune building those things? The only chance Nintendo has is by showing that the tabet controller really is the best gameplay invention since the mouse and keyboard, and personally i just don't see that happening.

The PS3 certainly is not a cash cow. In fact, it's lost tons of money over the years, and it's not until fairly recently it has started to make money. But in the long run it will have lost most of the money PS2 managed to gain. And it's around this point I base my whole theory; in the end, PS3 has lost Sony money, and I don't think they want or can allow that again.

That's not really entirely accurate, only the hardware has lost them money, they have made money on software for the consoles entire lifetime.

They lost much, much more money with TV's and other hardware per year than they have with the PlayStation 3, Incidentally the PlayStation 2 was sold at a loss intially too, Sony made the bulk of their playstation money with the software not the hardware.

With that said, it's inaccurate to broadly state that the PlayStation has induced nothing but loss "until recently". the money made from software sales, and PSN is actually much higher than the money lost from hardware and operation costs for it's online service.

As he states, if anything the initial loss of the PlayStation 3 and the glaring fact it's common knowledge the 360 performs better with multi platform games, and the worlds reaction to the PlayStation 3's price, is enough to know that the next PlayStation console will not use untested tech such as the Cell processor, and certainly will not be sold at a retarded pricetag.

With that said, simply moving to an AMD based processor alone greatly reduces the unit cost compared to running the Cell processor, despite the newer CPU being much more powerful, it's all about perspective and reasoning.

I predict at a reveal of both xbox 720 and playstation 4 at E3, with microsoft dropping the pricetag at E3 and sony holding off until TGS to reveal the price of their consol, but with both consoles hitting selves mid november.

Yes, they might have made money on every sold SW, but as far as I understand it, the HW loss far outweighs the SW income. I'll just post a few links to show case this fact.

http://www.gamasutra.com/blogs/edit/img/images/blog/5615/profit_chart_consoles.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/S6asr.png

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v110/will_42/graph_consoles_cum.jpg

http://i55.tinypic.com/95wwi1.png

http://i.imgur.com/P7pGx.png

And 2 articles:

http://www.vg247.com/2009/10/30/sony-ps-division-has-lost-4-7-billion-since-launching-ps3/

http://www.1up.com/news/sony-lost-ps3-ps2

Granted, all of these are a couple of years old, but it goes to show how much money PS3 has cost Sony, and why they cannot make the same mistake with the PS4. And their TV business might be off even worse, but that division will effect the whole company, and this in turn only makes it more pivotal that PS4 makes Sony money from the get go (which in turn will mean that they can't sell it at loss and that they can't pump up the specs too much). I've already stated in the OP that Sony will not lose more than $50/console - and even that's a stretch. And it's this assumption that makes me think PS4 won't be a leap over Wii U as PS3 was over Wii.

I agree they will not launch it with a "retarded pricetag" (I liked that wording!), they will probably launch it around $400, and since they need as much money as they can get, they won't take a huge hit on it - at most $50, and even that's a stretch imo.

And I'm also sure they'll hit store shelves around November - perhaps as early as October even. Where and when the unveiling will take place I'm not as sure of...

All of those images and articles either focus on sony as a whole or on hardware only - everyone knows they made a loss with hardware between launch and around 2010, and everyone knows Sony has been hemmoraging money left and right as TV and hifi equipment sales dwindle.

Consider this, if you will, 770 games, times by the average number of games sold (i'd estimate around 500k since some sell less and some sell millions), times by something along the lines of $5 which would a low estimat eof what sony makes per retail game sold (high estimate being $15), and with a low estimate you end up with :

1,925,000,000 to 5,775,000,000 billion dollars, if we take the launch to profitable operaing loss of 4,695,000,202 into consideration and offset that,

at the point at which sony made thei first dollar off of hardware, they were either : -$2770000202 or +$1079999798, take into consideration the gains made in hardware and software sales of PSN and you end up roughly and broadly speaking, seeing the PS3 more or less break even.

That does not mean the PS4 will follow suit, it just means Sony after enjoying two generations on top, got burned by their choices and will have to learn from their mistakes or perish, and i seriously doubt given the 'leaked' speaks that they will perish.

I would think that the profits made by every sold game would go directly Sony's "gaming department", no? I would think that the gaming department would be made up of both HW and SW, and if that's the case, Sony still lost shit loads of money in the early days of PS3, and if that's the case I would like to re-post this:

http://i.imgur.com/S6asr.png

It's focusing on Sony's Gaming Business. Now, I don't know if SW profits goes here, or if it goes elsewhere, but I would imagine that Sony would like to make money from the PS-brand (I'm including HW and SW in this definition right now), so PS3 breaking even shouldn't be too pleasing for them. I assume they want to make money from the PS-brand, and that that's what they're aiming at with PS4.

And I'd also just like to ask that having superior specs doesn't mean you'll sell shit ton of consoles. PS1 wasn't the most powerful of it's gen, and neither were PS2. N64 WERE the most powerful in its day, as was xbox - and neither won the generation (and xbox lost hellalot of money as well). And take a look at the Vita; a more recent example. It ass fucks the 3DS specs wise, but it's a whole different story when we're looking at profits, and systems sales and game sales. More muscles don't automatically mean more sales. So far, it's quite the opposite. And we have to remember that PS4 has to be affordable by the consumers. If it costs too much, no one will buy it.



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

DanneSandin on 28 January 2013
Tachikoma said:
DanneSandin said:
Tachikoma said:

At this point i very much doubt the PS3/360 will get Watch Dogs, it's most likely been put on the backburner and will probably be announced as a PC/PS4/720 title, since they didn't bother to show or hint at platforms at last years reveal - the graphical side of the game looked a little too polished to work on a ps3/360 too, but not polished enough to be a next gen title, which you would expect if it was initially intended for ps3/360 but target platform got changed and left it in limbo.

With that in mind, i very much doubt WiiU would see it, either, unless they made a spin-off or the consoles own similar but ultimately crippled version as they did with the Call Of Duty franchise

I actually think that WD will be released on PS360, WiiU AND PS720; releasing it only on PS720 and PC would mean far less sales since the instal base of those systems won't be too big until late 2014...


The development costs of re-writing the code to work on the PS3, and porting over the assets to work with the WiiU (or depending on the current state, basically making another game), would be much higher than title profits - consider this, if Forza 2 came out on xbox 1 and xbox 360, after the xbox 360 had been released, do you think the xbox 1 version would have sold enough copies to have been worthwhile developing?, from agames developers standpoint i'll tell you - it wouldnt

The instal base is so much bigger on PS360 than it will be for the PS720 for years and years to come, so it would only be stupid of Ubi to ignore them. And as for Wii U; I'm quite sure it'll be easier to port games to Wii U from PS720, than it would be to port to PS360, and it'll be easier to port to Wii U than it was to port from PS360 to Wii....

And besides, WD was shown last year on e3, and it looked way too polished to be a game for the PS720, considering they wouldn't have had dev kits long enough to make it look that good. They might have gotten dev kits in early 2012, or the second half of 2011, and having a year to come up with what they showed us...? No, I think it's a PS360 game that ran on a PC, and it'll get ported over from there to the PS720...



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

Tachikoma on 28 January 2013
DanneSandin said:
Tachikoma said:
DanneSandin said:
Tachikoma said:
DanneSandin said:
goopy20 said:

Wow that is one wall of text but I stopped reading after the first line. "Sony's console won't be a huge leap because they can't afford it..." This whole theory is  based on that assumption and it makes no sense. Sony might be in a bad spot but the ps3 is still one of it's few products that is going very well, outselling the Xbox and Wii-U combined, for months in a row now. So instead of thinking Sony will cut corners with the ps4, you can also asume they are going all out to make sure it's most important cashcow will stay on top.

The Wii-U never had a chance because it's not competing with the ps4/ Xbox720, it's competing with the current gen and has no visual edge over the 7 year old consoles that were already on the market. Next gen graphics will obviously take a leap over the ps3 and Xbox720 because if it doesn't, then why the hell would MS and Sony spend a fortune building those things? The only chance Nintendo has is by showing that the tabet controller really is the best gameplay invention since the mouse and keyboard, and personally i just don't see that happening.

The PS3 certainly is not a cash cow. In fact, it's lost tons of money over the years, and it's not until fairly recently it has started to make money. But in the long run it will have lost most of the money PS2 managed to gain. And it's around this point I base my whole theory; in the end, PS3 has lost Sony money, and I don't think they want or can allow that again.

That's not really entirely accurate, only the hardware has lost them money, they have made money on software for the consoles entire lifetime.

They lost much, much more money with TV's and other hardware per year than they have with the PlayStation 3, Incidentally the PlayStation 2 was sold at a loss intially too, Sony made the bulk of their playstation money with the software not the hardware.

With that said, it's inaccurate to broadly state that the PlayStation has induced nothing but loss "until recently". the money made from software sales, and PSN is actually much higher than the money lost from hardware and operation costs for it's online service.

As he states, if anything the initial loss of the PlayStation 3 and the glaring fact it's common knowledge the 360 performs better with multi platform games, and the worlds reaction to the PlayStation 3's price, is enough to know that the next PlayStation console will not use untested tech such as the Cell processor, and certainly will not be sold at a retarded pricetag.

With that said, simply moving to an AMD based processor alone greatly reduces the unit cost compared to running the Cell processor, despite the newer CPU being much more powerful, it's all about perspective and reasoning.

I predict at a reveal of both xbox 720 and playstation 4 at E3, with microsoft dropping the pricetag at E3 and sony holding off until TGS to reveal the price of their consol, but with both consoles hitting selves mid november.

Yes, they might have made money on every sold SW, but as far as I understand it, the HW loss far outweighs the SW income. I'll just post a few links to show case this fact.

http://www.gamasutra.com/blogs/edit/img/images/blog/5615/profit_chart_consoles.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/S6asr.png

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v110/will_42/graph_consoles_cum.jpg

http://i55.tinypic.com/95wwi1.png

http://i.imgur.com/P7pGx.png

And 2 articles:

http://www.vg247.com/2009/10/30/sony-ps-division-has-lost-4-7-billion-since-launching-ps3/

http://www.1up.com/news/sony-lost-ps3-ps2

Granted, all of these are a couple of years old, but it goes to show how much money PS3 has cost Sony, and why they cannot make the same mistake with the PS4. And their TV business might be off even worse, but that division will effect the whole company, and this in turn only makes it more pivotal that PS4 makes Sony money from the get go (which in turn will mean that they can't sell it at loss and that they can't pump up the specs too much). I've already stated in the OP that Sony will not lose more than $50/console - and even that's a stretch. And it's this assumption that makes me think PS4 won't be a leap over Wii U as PS3 was over Wii.

I agree they will not launch it with a "retarded pricetag" (I liked that wording!), they will probably launch it around $400, and since they need as much money as they can get, they won't take a huge hit on it - at most $50, and even that's a stretch imo.

And I'm also sure they'll hit store shelves around November - perhaps as early as October even. Where and when the unveiling will take place I'm not as sure of...

All of those images and articles either focus on sony as a whole or on hardware only - everyone knows they made a loss with hardware between launch and around 2010, and everyone knows Sony has been hemmoraging money left and right as TV and hifi equipment sales dwindle.

Consider this, if you will, 770 games, times by the average number of games sold (i'd estimate around 500k since some sell less and some sell millions), times by something along the lines of $5 which would a low estimat eof what sony makes per retail game sold (high estimate being $15), and with a low estimate you end up with :

1,925,000,000 to 5,775,000,000 billion dollars, if we take the launch to profitable operaing loss of 4,695,000,202 into consideration and offset that,

at the point at which sony made thei first dollar off of hardware, they were either : -$2770000202 or +$1079999798, take into consideration the gains made in hardware and software sales of PSN and you end up roughly and broadly speaking, seeing the PS3 more or less break even.

That does not mean the PS4 will follow suit, it just means Sony after enjoying two generations on top, got burned by their choices and will have to learn from their mistakes or perish, and i seriously doubt given the 'leaked' speaks that they will perish.

I would think that the profits made by every sold game would go directly Sony's "gaming department", no? I would think that the gaming department would be made up of both HW and SW, and if that's the case, Sony still lost shit loads of money in the early days of PS3, and if that's the case I would like to re-post this:

http://i.imgur.com/S6asr.png

It's focusing on Sony's Gaming Business. Now, I don't know if SW profits goes here, or if it goes elsewhere, but I would imagine that Sony would like to make money from the PS-brand (I'm including HW and SW in this definition right now), so PS3 breaking even shouldn't be too pleasing for them. I assume they want to make money from the PS-brand, and that that's what they're aiming at with PS4.

And I'd also just like to ask that having superior specs doesn't mean you'll sell shit ton of consoles. PS1 wasn't the most powerful of it's gen, and neither were PS2. N64 WERE the most powerful in its day, as was xbox - and neither won the generation (and xbox lost hellalot of money as well). And take a look at the Vita; a more recent example. It ass fucks the 3DS specs wise, but it's a whole different story when we're looking at profits, and systems sales and game sales. More muscles don't automatically mean more sales. So far, it's quite the opposite. And we have to remember that PS4 has to be affordable by the consumers. If it costs too much, no one will buy it.


Here's the thing, right? and it' what number crunchers always fail to factor in.

Accessories, headsets, controllers, cables and so on - including but not limited to stuff like playstation move - that's all profits for Sony, and since the sixaxis to ds3 dabacle, i'm going to assume an awful lot of controllers have been sold. these figures are never included with 'hardware' calculations despite being hardware because of the headache behind tracking so many individual products - but consider the following, the PlayStation Move wasn't immensely successful but unlike controllers and so on, its sale path could be tracked.. now also consider this.. hardware suddenly spiked from loss to profits in 2010... when did the trackable PS move release again? thats right, 2010.

If you factor in the additional hardware, the PS3 is probably in the profitiable zone quite comfortably.

none of this means however that a consoles success is down to it's power, but theres not two consoles on the market, theres three, if sony dont push the hardware enough they'll be in direct competition with WiiU, and will definitely lose, if they push the hardware enough they can compete with Microsoft - The PS3 has, if you consider the year less on sale, more or less outsold the 360 by quite a bit despite it's poor start but if it were more on par and easier to develop for like the 360 it wouldnt have had a rough start, in releasing a console with as similar architecture and spec to the competitior as possible, multiplatform titles become a none issue and the race for success is down to platform exclusives alone, something Sony can out-trump Microsoft in.

As i said though, performance isn't related to sales, as the Wii showed, but this thread isn't about that, it's about which consoles will be the most powerful.



Tachikoma on 28 January 2013
DanneSandin said:
Tachikoma said:
DanneSandin said:
Tachikoma said:
 

At this point i very much doubt the PS3/360 will get Watch Dogs, it's most likely been put on the backburner and will probably be announced as a PC/PS4/720 title, since they didn't bother to show or hint at platforms at last years reveal - the graphical side of the game looked a little too polished to work on a ps3/360 too, but not polished enough to be a next gen title, which you would expect if it was initially intended for ps3/360 but target platform got changed and left it in limbo.

With that in mind, i very much doubt WiiU would see it, either, unless they made a spin-off or the consoles own similar but ultimately crippled version as they did with the Call Of Duty franchise

I actually think that WD will be released on PS360, WiiU AND PS720; releasing it only on PS720 and PC would mean far less sales since the instal base of those systems won't be too big until late 2014...


The development costs of re-writing the code to work on the PS3, and porting over the assets to work with the WiiU (or depending on the current state, basically making another game), would be much higher than title profits - consider this, if Forza 2 came out on xbox 1 and xbox 360, after the xbox 360 had been released, do you think the xbox 1 version would have sold enough copies to have been worthwhile developing?, from agames developers standpoint i'll tell you - it wouldnt

The instal base is so much bigger on PS360 than it will be for the PS720 for years and years to come, so it would only be stupid of Ubi to ignore them. And as for Wii U; I'm quite sure it'll be easier to port games to Wii U from PS720, than it would be to port to PS360, and it'll be easier to port to Wii U than it was to port from PS360 to Wii....

And besides, WD was shown last year on e3, and it looked way too polished to be a game for the PS720, considering they wouldn't have had dev kits long enough to make it look that good. They might have gotten dev kits in early 2012, or the second half of 2011, and having a year to come up with what they showed us...? No, I think it's a PS360 game that ran on a PC, and it'll get ported over from there to the PS720...


The PS2 got the same need for speed games as the ps3, and despite the ps3's absolutely piss poor start, the PS3 version outsold the PS2, despite the PS2's the immense install base, never underestimate the power of a new console and 'shiny graphics'

WD was running on a high end PC, not a console if the game looked too polished to be a PS720 game how would it be a PS360 game? - The game was being played with a Windows 360 wireless controller. but that's as close to a console as the code was at that point.



Turkish on 28 January 2013
DanneSandin said:
Turkish said:
DanneSandin said:
goopy20 said:

Wow that is one wall of text but I stopped reading after the first line. "Sony's console won't be a huge leap because they can't afford it..." This whole theory is  based on that assumption and it makes no sense. Sony might be in a bad spot but the ps3 is still one of it's few products that is going very well, outselling the Xbox and Wii-U combined, for months in a row now. So instead of thinking Sony will cut corners with the ps4, you can also asume they are going all out to make sure it's most important cashcow will stay on top.

The Wii-U never had a chance because it's not competing with the ps4/ Xbox720, it's competing with the current gen and has no visual edge over the 7 year old consoles that were already on the market. Next gen graphics will obviously take a leap over the ps3 and Xbox720 because if it doesn't, then why the hell would MS and Sony spend a fortune building those things? The only chance Nintendo has is by showing that the tabet controller really is the best gameplay invention since the mouse and keyboard, and personally i just don't see that happening.

The PS3 certainly is not a cash cow. In fact, it's lost tons of money over the years, and it's not until fairly recently it has started to make money. But in the long run it will have lost most of the money PS2 managed to gain. And it's around this point I base my whole theory; in the end, PS3 has lost Sony money, and I don't think they want or can allow that again.

Fairly recently? The PS3 has been profitable since early 2010, roughly 3 years ago, or half a gen ago.

The PS4 won't have a catastrophic launch like the PS3. PS3 was expensive thanks to the Cell and Bluray drive. Sony was losing close to $300 on PS3s at launch, they lost a lot of money on Cell r&d. Blurays today are cheap, Sony will go with AMD for both their cpu and gpu next gen. All recent rumours point towards an economical  8core cpu and a beast 7900M gpu at nearly 2tf. If these rumours turn out to be true then its nearly 10x ps3. Sony can take a small loss with PS4, they'll profit from the software.

You expect 3rd parties to embrace the WiiU, but it doesn't even get PS360 ports like Tomb Raider, Bioshock, Dark Souls 2, DmC, Crysis, MGR, how can you expect WiiU to get Watch Dogs, Cyberpunk, Starwars 1313?

The exact wording isn't as important as the fact that PS3 has lost Sony more money than they've got from it. Just take a look at one of my replies to Tachikoma; I provided her with some links showing how much Sony lost under a few years time. Granted, those links don't show the picture, since none offers facts for the last few years. But they should still offer some sort of understanding of the HUGE losses they made.

Hopefully PS4 will do a lot better than PS3, but looking at the Vita doesn't show much of an improvement...


What PS3 did has no basis on how PS4 will perform, they won't be similar. PS4 will be significantly cheaper to produce and it will cost cheaper than PS3 did thanks to a cheaper bluray drive and absence of a Cell 2. It won't make a huge loss like the PS3. Bluray players cost $1000 in 2006, Sony put a lot of money in the development of Cell. They would've learned from their mistakes. All Sony 1st parties are working on PS4 now, the system will have lots of games. (PS3 got it first system sellers in 2008.)

Saying PS4 won't be cutting edge makes 0 sense. What is cutting edge to you? Putting GTX680 in a PS4? It doesn't need it, its overkill. The rumoured components are plausible, 7970M has comparable performances to a hd7870 despite using less power.

If PS4 costs Sony 450 to make, they either sell it at that price and break even, or sell it at 500 and make profit, or sell it at 400 and take a small loss.

WiiU has no chance to win next gen, there is no hype, casuals think its an addon for the Wii. It will be a console for Nintendo fans.