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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Why PS4 won't be cutting edge, and neither will Xbox3 - or Why Nintendo might win next gen

 

Is my reasoning sound?

Hellz yeah! Spot on 265 33.42%
 
I never thought of it like that.... 69 8.70%
 
So it's the mental institution next for you? 101 12.74%
 
So very, very wrong 266 33.54%
 
I'm a pussy with no opinion 88 11.10%
 
Total:789
DanneSandin said:
Tachikoma said:
DanneSandin said:
 

As I said in my previous post, I would of thought that SW sales and accessories would have been included in the overall numbers of Sony's Gaming Business, so until we know that (or you maybe can tell me straight out how it is?) there's really no point in arguing over that topic. I must confess that I don't have a clue if those numbers (sw and accessories) are included, so I can't add anything further to that part of the discussion.

Yes, I must agree that in this day and age when few titles, except 1st party, is exclusive, PS wouldn't stand a chance against Wii U if it had similar specs. And since the faulty launch and over all design of the PS3 has let Xbox to get a foot hold in gaming and get established as a brand, it'll be VERY interesting to see how the PS4 will do against x3ox. I would think that whom ever has the best/most interesting USP will win that battle. Now when they seem to have about the same specs and architecture, they will need something to differentiate themselves...

In your opinion, which system will pack the most punch??


PC, always PC.

I've got three GK110's on pre-order direct from the bigwigs at Nvidia once they announce the damn thing, when they go in my machine and replace the cards i have already, the next gen consoles will pale in comparison on my 4K display.

But, putting my lust for technology to one side (kind of*),

Power wise i'm going to be blunt with power/capability:

PS2 < XBOX < Wii < PS3 < WiiU < 360 < 720 < PS4 < PC*

That's basically it, if anyone wants to argue the fact, or any PS3 fans get butthurt about it being behind the WiiU, which itself is behind the 360, it's because Sony decided to force us developers to use Cell for graphical computation then throw it through RSX, because of this design choice while the console is capable of great visuals, in the right hands the WiiU can do more - just behind the 360 in raw power - if Microsoft killed the dashboard and freed up the memory and cpu cycles it uses, the WiiU wouldn't stand a chance.

While I have nothing at all to back my claim up, I simply can't believe Wii U will be behind the 360... XenoGame looks just as good as any late 360 game, except a few rough spots (the water edge, the grass) that I'm sure will get sorted out. And then we have to remember that Xenogame is an early game, and that things will only get better from here on. But as I said, I have nothing to back up my claim, and it seems a bit stupid arguing this with you, since you clearly have more knowledge about this.

But let's put it this way; if the PS4 is the xbox of the 6th gen, and 720 is the GC, what would the Wii U be? PS2? Dreamcast? N64?


It's more a case that you don't want to believe the 360 is more powerful, but you need to understand you're basing your opinions on a sub-hd video stream, if you take any half decent looking game and shrink it down it looks incredible, additionally at this point it'll be running on an SDK and not the retail hardware, in which case the graphical quality doesn't represent the final quality.

It's hard to swallow, i know, but it just doesn't have the raw power to outclass the 360, so the chances of it holding it's own against the next sony and microsoft console, in the graphics department are none.



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Tachikoma said:


It's more a case that you don't want to believe the 360 is more powerful, but you need to understand you're basing your opinions on a sub-hd video stream, if you take any half decent looking game and shrink it down it looks incredible, additionally at this point it'll be running on an SDK and not the retail hardware, in which case the graphical quality doesn't represent the final quality.

It's hard to swallow, i know, but it just doesn't have the raw power to outclass the 360, so the chances of it holding it's own against the next sony and microsoft console, in the graphics department are none.

Yeah, the more I'm hearing from you the more I come to believe that Wii U will be left in the dust by the PS720, and out in the cold by 3rd parties...

Why is Nintendo doing this to us?! :,(



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

DanneSandin said:
Tachikoma said:
 


It's more a case that you don't want to believe the 360 is more powerful, but you need to understand you're basing your opinions on a sub-hd video stream, if you take any half decent looking game and shrink it down it looks incredible, additionally at this point it'll be running on an SDK and not the retail hardware, in which case the graphical quality doesn't represent the final quality.

It's hard to swallow, i know, but it just doesn't have the raw power to outclass the 360, so the chances of it holding it's own against the next sony and microsoft console, in the graphics department are none.

Yeah, the more I'm hearing from you the more I come to believe that Wii U will be left in the dust by the PS720, and out in the cold by 3rd parties...

Why is Nintendo doing this to us?! :,(


The success of the Wii is working against it, as others have said - but the real problem is that the 360 and ps3 are approaching the end of their lives but are still pumping out some truly amazing games, providing robust and extensively tried and tested online functionality, where WiiU is basically doing 'babbys first multiplayer' with regaurds to a conherant and structured online system.

The controller confuses people, and frankly the games Nintendo are using to advertise it, don't look that different from those offered on the Wii.

Yhen you need to consider that when the Wii launched in 2005, lots of children bought it, lets say a 7 year old and a 12 year old bought it, those same kids will now be 14 and 19 conversely, and now be moving on to platform that offer a more adult experience, where the adults that were initially buying into the control system offered by the Wii have long since bored of it and moved on - Wii's success was based purely on the novelty of control input and its appeal to children, but the same age range of children that wanted the wii when it released, now would rather have iphones, ipads and other devices.

Basically, Nintendo missed the window for releasing a new console by about 2 years, and ditching the very input method that was what pulled in the punters originally, for the input method offered by the new controller with a screen just messes up the minds of those who were already on the brink of moving on.

 

I'd like to ask you to do the following, hit youtube up for the xenogame trailer, set it to 720, watch it and pause often, really scruitinize the environmnts and effects, the ground textures and sprites, popin and pixelation on things like trees in the distance (alpha blending messing up, can be seen in the section of video where the player runs towards the monster with water to the right), take off the rose tinted this looks awesome glasses and truly look closer, and you'll notice things that make you think 'actually yeah.. it isn't really as amazing as i thought'. - Also it's running at 60fps, in the video, if monolith stick with this it's going to hav trmendously anouyng frame drops when in really complex environments or busy fights, when running on retail and not the overpoweed sdk.

As a side note i'm sat in a bar in downtown tokyo writing my responses on my laptop in between drinking sake, so if i start messing up spelling of things it's not entirely my fault.



DanneSandin said:

Yeah, I'm starting to fear I'll be served so much crow I'll choke on it... =/


Relax, predictions always have a chance to be wrong (and it happens more than correct ones). I'm Patcher is well and with a lot of money even if he is wrong a lot of times and makes absurd predictions :D

I think that the only thing you missed is that if PS4 was on par with Wii U, it would be a small jump from PS3. Sony would expend money in R&D and would have to convince everyone to buy a new console for 50~100% more without any improvement. Imagine Uncharted 4 on PS4 looking equal that Uncharted 3, or GT6 exactly like GT5. It would be a pathetic E3. If they couldn't afford a jump, they would quit the videogame market.

Despite their financial problems, Hirai already said that games, mobile, medical equipments and cameras are the main bussiness from now on. So they will kill the budget of other divisions and keep the money pumping on the important ones. The TV division is way smaller now and maybe they even close it, since it is the main problem. A console is a one shot bussiness. If you screw it, you will have to wait 5 to 6 years to try again, so you always have to go with full power and do your best or simply quit it and don't come back.



Tachikoma said:
DanneSandin said:
Tachikoma said:
 


It's more a case that you don't want to believe the 360 is more powerful, but you need to understand you're basing your opinions on a sub-hd video stream, if you take any half decent looking game and shrink it down it looks incredible, additionally at this point it'll be running on an SDK and not the retail hardware, in which case the graphical quality doesn't represent the final quality.

It's hard to swallow, i know, but it just doesn't have the raw power to outclass the 360, so the chances of it holding it's own against the next sony and microsoft console, in the graphics department are none.

Yeah, the more I'm hearing from you the more I come to believe that Wii U will be left in the dust by the PS720, and out in the cold by 3rd parties...

Why is Nintendo doing this to us?! :,(


The success of the Wii is working against it, as others have said - but the real problem is that the 360 and ps3 are approaching the end of their lives but are still pumping out some truly amazing games, providing robust and extensively tried and tested online functionality, where WiiU is basically doing 'babbys first multiplayer' with regaurds to a conherant and structured online system.

The controller confuses people, and frankly the games Nintendo are using to advertise it, don't look that different from those offered on the Wii.

Yhen you need to consider that when the Wii launched in 2005, lots of children bought it, lets say a 7 year old and a 12 year old bought it, those same kids will now be 14 and 19 conversely, and now be moving on to platform that offer a more adult experience, where the adults that were initially buying into the control system offered by the Wii have long since bored of it and moved on - Wii's success was based purely on the novelty of control input and its appeal to children, but the same age range of children that wanted the wii when it released, now would rather have iphones, ipads and other devices.

Basically, Nintendo missed the window for releasing a new console by about 2 years, and ditching the very input method that was what pulled in the punters originally, for the input method offered by the new controller with a screen just messes up the minds of those who were already on the brink of moving on.

 

I'd like to ask you to do the following, hit youtube up for the xenogame trailer, set it to 720, watch it and pause often, really scruitinize the environmnts and effects, the ground textures and sprites, popin and pixelation on things like trees in the distance (alpha blending messing up, can be seen in the section of video where the player runs towards the monster with water to the right), take off the rose tinted this looks awesome glasses and truly look closer, and you'll notice things that make you think 'actually yeah.. it isn't really as amazing as i thought'. - Also it's running at 60fps, in the video, if monolith stick with this it's going to hav trmendously anouyng frame drops when in really complex environments or busy fights, when running on retail and not the overpoweed sdk.

As a side note i'm sat in a bar in downtown tokyo writing my responses on my laptop in between drinking sake, so if i start messing up spelling of things it's not entirely my fault.

I really do agree that Nintendo has made a fucked up job in advertising the system; they don't know WHAT to advertise it seems. And they really don't know how to advertise the controller; to me, it looks like a really great addition, and a natural progression to add a screen to the controller, but it seems as if Nintendo don't know how to market this feature. I don't know if they're 2 years to late for releasing a new console; but they're not giving us much reason to upgrade to Wii U, that's for sure.

Yes, I've seen quite some less than encouraging things with the trailer; like grass appearing out of nowhere, and the sharp water edge, and things like that. But as I've said before, this is probably quite an early built, and things will improve. I'm sure Monolith didn't want to show this footage yet, and that's probably why it wasn't featured at e3; but Nintendo got nervous over the poor figures of the Wii U and wanted to reassure us that games will come. And I'd be perfectly happy if it ran at 720 at 30fps...

Well, good for you, I'd say!! I've never tried sake (though, I'd like to), but I know for a fact that alcohol has a way of messing up the typing! Damn you delicious alcohol!!! 



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

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torok said:
DanneSandin said:

Yeah, I'm starting to fear I'll be served so much crow I'll choke on it... =/


Relax, predictions always have a chance to be wrong (and it happens more than correct ones). I'm Patcher is well and with a lot of money even if he is wrong a lot of times and makes absurd predictions :D

I think that the only thing you missed is that if PS4 was on par with Wii U, it would be a small jump from PS3. Sony would expend money in R&D and would have to convince everyone to buy a new console for 50~100% more without any improvement. Imagine Uncharted 4 on PS4 looking equal that Uncharted 3, or GT6 exactly like GT5. It would be a pathetic E3. If they couldn't afford a jump, they would quit the videogame market.

Despite their financial problems, Hirai already said that games, mobile, medical equipments and cameras are the main bussiness from now on. So they will kill the budget of other divisions and keep the money pumping on the important ones. The TV division is way smaller now and maybe they even close it, since it is the main problem. A console is a one shot bussiness. If you screw it, you will have to wait 5 to 6 years to try again, so you always have to go with full power and do your best or simply quit it and don't come back.

It's been such a long time ago that I don't even remember if I said PS4 would be on par with Wii U; in that case, I'd just be plain stupid. PS4 will be more powerful than Wii U, I just doubted that we'd see a Wii-->PS3 gap...

Making the gaming division a core business only puts more pressure on PS4 to generate money, as the whole company will rely on it...

Hehe looking back at this prediction right now (especially after having this lng conversation with Tachikoma) makes me very doubtful ^^ hopefully this thread will be dead and buried by the time we know the final specs of PS720 :D



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

DanneSandin said:
Turkish said:
DanneSandin said:
 

The exact wording isn't as important as the fact that PS3 has lost Sony more money than they've got from it. Just take a look at one of my replies to Tachikoma; I provided her with some links showing how much Sony lost under a few years time. Granted, those links don't show the picture, since none offers facts for the last few years. But they should still offer some sort of understanding of the HUGE losses they made.

Hopefully PS4 will do a lot better than PS3, but looking at the Vita doesn't show much of an improvement...


What PS3 did has no basis on how PS4 will perform, they won't be similar. PS4 will be significantly cheaper to produce and it will cost cheaper than PS3 did thanks to a cheaper bluray drive and absence of a Cell 2. It won't make a huge loss like the PS3. Bluray players cost $1000 in 2006, Sony put a lot of money in the development of Cell. They would've learned from their mistakes. All Sony 1st parties are working on PS4 now, the system will have lots of games. (PS3 got it first system sellers in 2008.)

Saying PS4 won't be cutting edge makes 0 sense. What is cutting edge to you? Putting GTX680 in a PS4? It doesn't need it, its overkill. The rumoured components are plausible, 7970M has comparable performances to a hd7870 despite using less power.

If PS4 costs Sony 450 to make, they either sell it at that price and break even, or sell it at 500 and make profit, or sell it at 400 and take a small loss.

WiiU has no chance to win next gen, there is no hype, casuals think its an addon for the Wii. It will be a console for Nintendo fans.

I don't think I ever said that we could judge the PS4 from how the PS3 has performed. If so, please show me the sentence; I might have worded it wrong.

And I do agree that PS4 will be a great deal cheaper; never argued that either. I've said it'll probably cost $400, and that Sony will take a $50 hit at most per sold console. $50 isn't "taking a small loss" if you sell 10m PS4 and losing $50 on each sale; that's half a billion in losses. half-a-billion. Sure, they'd make up some of it with SW, but that's still pretty much money, especially for a company that don't have any money, and has lousy credit rating.

And saying the Wii U can't win next gen is like saying that PS3 wasn't going to be able to turn around and will end up dead last out of the 3 back in 2006/2007...

Yes it is, $50 is not much, its nowhere near the money Sony wasted on selling the PS3 at a loss which was close to $300, OR the more than $100 Sony lost on selling PS2 at launch. Sony does have money, otherwise they wouldn't be able to purchase Gaikai, invest $645m in Olympus or buy out Ericsson and fully own Sony Mobile.  The WiiU is being sold at a loss, with 1 game purchase the system is profitable.  GameCube and Wii both have been profitable from day 1, With the WiiU Nintendo follows the same strategy Sony did with PS2 and PS3.

Unfortunatly for Nintendo WiiU is not doing good, in America its selling worse than the $600 PS3 which was supply constrained aswel. There is no hype for the WiiU, the weekly sales are horrible. Its lacking 3rd party support. Once again the system will be known for Nintendos own games. It doesn't even get PS360 multiplats, there is no way it'll ever get PS4/720 multiplats.



Turkish said:
DanneSandin said:

I don't think I ever said that we could judge the PS4 from how the PS3 has performed. If so, please show me the sentence; I might have worded it wrong.

And I do agree that PS4 will be a great deal cheaper; never argued that either. I've said it'll probably cost $400, and that Sony will take a $50 hit at most per sold console. $50 isn't "taking a small loss" if you sell 10m PS4 and losing $50 on each sale; that's half a billion in losses. half-a-billion. Sure, they'd make up some of it with SW, but that's still pretty much money, especially for a company that don't have any money, and has lousy credit rating.

And saying the Wii U can't win next gen is like saying that PS3 wasn't going to be able to turn around and will end up dead last out of the 3 back in 2006/2007...

Yes it is, $50 is not much, its nowhere near the money Sony wasted on selling the PS3 at a loss which was close to $300, OR the more than $100 Sony lost on selling PS2 at launch. Sony does have money, otherwise they wouldn't be able to purchase Gaikai, invest $645m in Olympus or buy out Ericsson and fully own Sony Mobile.  The WiiU is being sold at a loss, with 1 game purchase the system is profitable.  GameCube and Wii both have been profitable from day 1, With the WiiU Nintendo follows the same strategy Sony did with PS2 and PS3.

Unfortunatly for Nintendo WiiU is not doing good, in America its selling worse than the $600 PS3 which was supply constrained aswel. There is no hype for the WiiU, the weekly sales are horrible. Its lacking 3rd party support. Once again the system will be known for Nintendos own games. It doesn't even get PS360 multiplats, there is no way it'll ever get PS4/720 multiplats.

Thing is though, it's not 2006 any more. Sony doesn't have the same credit rating as they used to have, and as far as I know, they have more debts then they have assets. Like it or not, but that's one serious financial situation. And of course they have money, but they're losing it, slowly but surely. I bet you have a better understanding of Sony's financials than I do, but I think we can both agree that Sony's economy isn't all that good right now. ANd the GC was actually sold at a small loss - I think it was something like $9...

The Wii U is doing terrible right now, but they've still sold more Wii U's in the same time frame since launch than Sony sold PS3's. But you're right; if Nintendo can't build hype around Wii U and release games and increase sales, Wii U's pretty much fucked. And I actually think Wii U has a better chance of getting PS720 games; the engines will be far more scalable this time around, and Wii U and PS720 will have architectures more aching to each other than what Wii U have in common with PS360...



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

DanneSandin said:

It's been such a long time ago that I don't even remember if I said PS4 would be on par with Wii U; in that case, I'd just be plain stupid. PS4 will be more powerful than Wii U, I just doubted that we'd see a Wii-->PS3 gap...

Making the gaming division a core business only puts more pressure on PS4 to generate money, as the whole company will rely on it...

Hehe looking back at this prediction right now (especially after having this lng conversation with Tachikoma) makes me very doubtful ^^ hopefully this thread will be dead and buried by the time we know the final specs of PS720 :D


And we won't see a difference so big like that. We got some new PS4 info today, it's pretty powerful, but won't make a Wii/PS3 situation: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=153742&page=1

 

DanneSandin said:
Thing is though, it's not 2006 any more. Sony doesn't have the same credit rating as they used to have, and as far as I know, they have more debts then they have assets. Like it or not, but that's one serious financial situation. And of course they have money, but they're losing it, slowly but surely. I bet you have a better understanding of Sony's financials than I do, but I think we can both agree that Sony's economy isn't all that good right now. ANd the GC was actually sold at a small loss - I think it was something like $9...

The Wii U is doing terrible right now, but they've still sold more Wii U's in the same time frame since launch than Sony sold PS3's. But you're right; if Nintendo can't build hype around Wii U and release games and increase sales, Wii U's pretty much fucked. And I actually think Wii U has a better chance of getting PS720 games; the engines will be far more scalable this time around, and Wii U and PS720 will have architectures more aching to each other than what Wii U have in common with PS360...

They have more than enough to launch it at loss and looking the rumoured specs, it is exactly what they are going to do. Sony has a healthy income, they need to cut costs and that's all (and the difficult part), but not from important divisions. TVs are a lost cause, it would be better stop with them than risking PlayStation. Believe me, if they still can afford that massively unprofitable TV division, PS is safe. They would cut that first.

Comparing Wii U launch with PS3 it's not very fair. It's a US$ 300 console competing with a US$ 600 console (and that stil had to fight with 360 that came a year early and with a beastial PS2). Wii U got a clean road and a good price point. The hollydays were great, but now the weekly sales are dead and they need to fix it before PS720.



torok said:
DanneSandin said:

It's been such a long time ago that I don't even remember if I said PS4 would be on par with Wii U; in that case, I'd just be plain stupid. PS4 will be more powerful than Wii U, I just doubted that we'd see a Wii-->PS3 gap...

Making the gaming division a core business only puts more pressure on PS4 to generate money, as the whole company will rely on it...

Hehe looking back at this prediction right now (especially after having this lng conversation with Tachikoma) makes me very doubtful ^^ hopefully this thread will be dead and buried by the time we know the final specs of PS720 :D


And we won't see a difference so big like that. We got some new PS4 info today, it's pretty powerful, but won't make a Wii/PS3 situation: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=153742&page=1

Yeah, I saw that. I wonder what while constitute "cutting edge" and when that term can't be used... Perhaps I should have specified that in the OP :P



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.