Wii U will probably have less innovative stuff late in its life cycle, which is sort of the secret sauce for how consoles reach staggering totals. SNES had semi-3D games late, PS1 had alternative sports games late (Tony Hawk was huge back in the day), PS2 had Guitar Hero late, Wii had Just Dance 2-3 late, X360 had Kinect late.

I think the safe bet for Wii U is 60m - 120m, with a higher attach rate than Wii. In most respects I think the Wii --> Wii U transition is going to be safer than DS --> 3DS, consoles aren't really under threat at the moment, and whatever threat they face, Wii U has a longer time to build up a base than the competition will.

Okay, that's enough. Please stop spamming this thread

totally disagree. I think one of the advantages of continuing the Wii-branding is that it ensures moderate success and no risk of pure failure. Yes the the brand may hurt some buyers who feel like they are not getting something fresh but the technique is a conservative one.

40 million in 6-10 years sounds like failure to me so I would have to disagree. Nintendo is only going to make mroe of the best software that sold on wii like the motion sports and the 2d games (smash, mario, donkey, kirby, etc.). No 100 million like with Wii, but I would say more than 50 million.

and i'm not saying 40M is the max LTD either.  ..but i think 100M is a stretch as wii hasn't been able to cross that yet either and i really feel wii U will do at least somewhat less than wii.  i went with 60M as that's about where ps360 are and i just feel like wii U will follow somewhat close to their sales pattern.

honest to god, i'm not trying to troll.  i just want to ask...do you think some of those pre-orders could be speculators thinking that they can turn the wii U around on ebay for a quick profit?  that seems increasingly popular now-a-days.

It will shift about half that by the end of its first full year, but you're saying that it will sell less than 4m units a year on average until discontinuation? OK

Asymmetrical game play has a lot of potential for core gaming, but, as usual, its only a question of whether 3rd Parties get off their ass and use it properly. But having said this, im not even sure Nintendo will use it to the best of its potential. Hopefully we'll see indy studio's innovate more, just like we saw with Wii last gen.

As for the other reasons why Nintendo will clear 40 million, price is king and the Wii U is actually cheap.

While they don't pay for exclusives, as far as we know, they don't have to with all those jap. devs jumping from Sony. He who wins Japan, wins dev. support.

This is off-topic a bit, but ive been wondering...Why are some ppl acting like the Wii U conference was some saving grace for the Wii U all of a sudden? Back at E3, I was fully expecting Nintendo to show off how impressive the Wii U system/technology was, but I was impressed instead how underwhelming it was for the most part.

Now I see the recent Wii U conference, and other than the pretty good price tag, I was expecting to see ppl's comments reflect my still-underwhelmed feelings. I guess my main confusion is the launch lineup. Other than 2-3 games, it seems quite weak to me; yet, ppl are touting it as this amazing thing. I guess ill use snowdog's comment from above as an example:

He described all of the following as "system sellers": NSMB U, Pikmin 3, Lego game, Rayman, Zombie U, Alien: Colonial Marines, Dragon Quest X, Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate

NSMB U: Sure, obvious.
Pikmin 3: Have heard some fair excitement for this game, but first 2 games sold 1.6 and 1.2 million
Lego game: really? I mean, some decent sales, considering; but still, best sales in recent times was 2010 with ~2mill on wii (and this even had the power of the Harry Potter name behind it)
Rayman: heard last was pretty good, but system seller? Idc how. Last game sold not even 1.5 million across all 3 systems
Zombie U: decent looking bbut no where near resident evil from my perspective. Idt it looks interesting enough to even rent
Aliens: CM: releasing on all 3 systems, no? Why would it be a system seller even if it was exclusive?
Dragon Quest X: just saw 2 of these games had good sales on ps2 and ds in 2004 and 2009, respectively. Don't know anything else about the franchise, though
Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate: obviously MH is big in Japan, but isn't this a port with some extra features?

Not everyone claims all the games are system sellers, but there are definitely a lot of ppl describing the launch lineup as something amazing. There are several games in the lineup that were released long ago on ps360, with several other games coming to Wii U that are also coming to ps360 in the near future; yet both of those game lists are also being used as arguments for Wii U's launch lineup strength.

Anyways, it just seems like ppl are grasping at straws with this praise. I'm fully open to the possibility that maybe I'm just missing something. As it stands, I just don't get it. So I'm hoping someone can make me understand.

Long story short, several major concerns were alleviated.

1. The large number of ports and multiplat releases seemingly confirms that 3rd parties are taking the Wii U seriously, something that previously was up in the air. We did not know if Call of Duty, the biggest multiplat franchise at the moment, was even coming to the Wii U! The fact that it, Assassin's Creed, Aliens, and all those other multiplat games, even the late ones like Mass Effect 3 and Batman: Arkham City, suggests that 3rd parties are at least willing to test the waters, something many never did for the Wii.

2. The existence of 3rd party exclusives, such as Rayman and ZombiU, suggest that 3rd parties will actually make use of the system's features. ZombiU in particular, which is being bundled in Europe, looks like the first game to prove what the Wii U can do, while also breathing new life into the genre to boot.

3. Nintendo, in addition to their own usual fare, seems to be trying to win back the hardcore gamer, as evidenced by their adoption of the Bayonetta franchise and their publishing of LEGO City and Ninja Gaiden 3. Plus, the new Mario, Mii, and Pikmin games have been looking better and better.

4. Dragon Quest and Monster Hunter are the strongest non-Nintendo franchises in Japan, proportionately similar to the strength of Call of Duty and Grand Theft Auto in the West. Their coming to the Wii U early on, even as ports, suggests that the system will have an easy time establishing dominance there. At very least, Japanese gamers will have a more reasons to pick up Wii Us

A lot of the games are not system sellers and are honestly being overhyped (Pikmin 3 and the LEGO game come to mind), but are solid additions to an increasingly impressive library.

Plus, it's worth noting that most of the games announced so far are launch window titles. These eras are usually poor, especially for recent Nintendo systems. The fact that there is such a variety of quality content makes the Wii U look more like a purchase you won't regret making quickly.

very very low chance of that happening, the market is so much bigger than before and can easily support 3 consoles at once. 40 million would be the same as the gamecube at this point. 40 million would be absolutely the worst i could imagine. Somewhere between 60-100 million is far more likely.