Mr Khan said:
Kasz216 said: Seems to be a bit excessive. If anything i'd guess we'd just end up in a modest depression for decades as we struggle to find new ways to create credit. |
That's what many have been suggesting for a while. They call it "the new normal," right?
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More or less.
The arguement being that society's economic growth was mostly based on debt, and people are reaching their max level of household debt. There are a few options to take.
1) Use government spending to maitnain "the new normal." for decades kind of like Japan. Argueably at some point there would be a crash down the line after that.
Downside is, it's not really solving the problem, option 2 will probably happen at some point.
2) Don't government spend, bottom out and hope for the best. Put in programs to help people transition from doing but in debt, to being poor. With so many people defaulting, credit will be a lot easier to get again and build up... meanwhile, those at the top will proportionatly lose the most money by a huge factor. So ideally, people will go broke, but be ready to try and regain their living, while the gini coefficent drops and credit becomes more available.
Downside, we probably have a lost generation or two as people in their 40-60's get caught in the middle of the transition.
3) Use govenment spending, but not as stimulus. Cut the deficit by a few trillion, but then go around and take that stimulus and throw it all at a couple of big possible technologies that could greatly bring down costs for products and essentially make everyone richer in doing so to try and recreate a new "industrial revolution."
Downside of course being, it's risky as hell... and government has to pick out something that's likely to work, while simaltaniously mostly ignoring the poor.
Worst case scenario is, we spend all that money and end up in a very prolonged state 2.