This thread has nothing to do with 360 so don't try derail it. We already have enough of those threads but if you think they're not enough be my guest and make your own prediction thread and stay out of mine.

*your* thread? people can say whatever they want, when keeping a minimum standard (no trolling, e.g. ;)) or not running too far off-topic. and i do think the argument from BenVTrigger is valid, at least by now. you are literally *dreaming* of a huge sales-success the ps3 will possibly have while disregarding its position right now. this is neither trolling nor off-topic.

Wii will not hit it especially after Wii-U hits. Sales have already slowed way down for the Wii even with it being the cheapest system on the market. Once the Wii-u comes out I expect Nintendo will pretty much forget about it and the slaes will continue to drop way before it sells another 9 million.

You're going to argue who's thread this is? Hilarious. I come up with valid reasons while you're trying to ridicule my thread without providing any data or argument. If you have nothing valuable to say, why come in my thread? Don't come here if you have nothing to add to the discussion. I dont need no complaints or having to hear how I am dreaming. And no, you can't say whatever you want. Stop trolling my thread. This is just a simple prediction thread, don't get personal with me. I'm offering people to discuss such topic.

Like predicting Wii would outsell PS2 by 2010 and 360 would outsell PS2 in US, right?

PS3 isn't selling 40m in two years. If you go by shipments Wii should be around 105m in two years (10m). I don't think Wii is going to be down by 1/2 like it has been recently in Q4 2012 vs. Q4 2011. It should still be the main platform for music games, and Epic Mickey 1 pushed a lot of HW back in 2010, so Epic Mickey 2 should be fairly big. Wii could also be selling for $100 officially, with Wii U at perhaps $250 or $300 (with a game), which squeezes Sony's PS3 pricing pretty good.

PS3 is going to be down for a while (it's 20% off it's 12 month US peak, and 33% off it's Japan peak, between in Europe)  - the new model isn't coming at Leipzig, so it's likely to be introduced in October to prevent sales from diving off a cliff in Japan (where 3DS and Wii U will massacre everything in December), and the US (where X360 & Wii price cuts, and the new Wii U sould offset whatever Sony does).

Europe is also about to enter a depression because of the incompetent dipshit political class that insists on ruining everything it touches, how much penetration can PS3 really have in Europe with 25m systems sold by year end, but 25% unemployment in it's best markets (Italy, Spain), and the more faddish markets like the UK / France set to at least initially support the Wii U as the next big thing.

Sony is also somewhat hamstrung by it's ongoing massive losses, and the need to devote huge developmental resources to try to turn Vita around, as it's currently tracking for around 10m lifetime in each major market (the US and Japan and Europe) and maybe 35m - 40m lifetime globally.

Also, as a rule of thumb you can essentially take a system's peak year and multiply it by four to six to come up with a range for lifetime sales.

NES Peak = 11m ---> LTD = 62m (x5.5)

SNES Peak = 12m ---> LTD = 49m (x4)

N64 Peak = 9.4m ----> LTD = 33m (x3.5)

GC Peak = 5.4m ---> LTD = 22m (x4)

Wii Peak = 26m --> LTD of... 105m - 110m ? (x4 - x4.33)

GBA Peak = 18m --> LTD of 81m (x4.5)

DS Peak = 31m ---> LTD of 155m - 160m (x5 ish)

3DS Peak to date = 12m ---> Will do at least 50m

PS1 Peak = 21m ---> LTD of 103m (x5)

PS2 Peak = 22.5m --> LTD of 160m? (x7 - this is the major exception)

PS3 Peak = 15m --->  LTD of 90-95m? (x6-x6.5?)

PSP Peak = 16m ---> LTD of 80m (x5)

Xbox Peak = 7m ---> LTD of 25m (x3.5)

X360 Peak = 15m ---> LTD of 90m? (x6?)

Genesis Peak = 8m ---> LTD of 30m (x4?)

DC Peak = 2.5m ---> LTD of 10m (x4)

PS2 had essentially no competition in 2005-2006, and 2000-2001, for being the main console (PS1 / N64 were dead in both time frames, and Xbox, GC, DC were beaten to a bulp in these years) so it will end up around seven times it's peak year. Typically the stronger the competition the lower the multiplier, although in this generation the 6-8 year span between consoles is also expanding the multiplier. Wii had the market dominated really just in 2008, PS3 / X360 started to become viable in 2009 on, and PS2 was viable in 2006-2007. PS2 was also the only platform to dominate all three global markets. DS owned Japan from 2005-2008, DS / PSP split it in 2009-2010, and 3DS has owned it since. West was dominated by Wii only 2007-2009, X360 / Wii / PS3 have been at parity since, with PS2 dominant before 2006. PS2 dominated the global market from 2001-2005 essentially. PS1 struggled vs. SNES / Saturn in 1994-1996 in Japan, and against N64 in 1996-1997 in the US, and SNES / Genesis in 1995 in the US, and then lost momentum to DC / PS2 in 1999-2000 globally, so it really only had 1998 to itself, and thus ended up with a fairly similar multiplier to Wii. SNES was also caught in between, with Genesis doing well in the West from 1992-1994, and NES doing well in 1990-1991, and then PS1 / N64 doing well after 1996. NES was much more like PS2 with a longer run of dominance, hence the bigger multiplier. DS was also fairly dominant, given that 91m were sold in it's best three years.

$99 < $150. It's really that simple. While the PS3 will remain more expensive than the 360, the Wii will be cheaper. Those wanting a "HD system" will be as willing to buy a 360 as a PS3 due to price, at least, but those just wanting a cheap system will go for the Wii more strongly.

Also, I should emphasise that a $99 Wii would sell strong to the end of the year. I made no predictions about what happens once the Wii U gets released - indeed, I'd suggest that a $99 Wii would sell strongly up until the end of the year (those buying the Wii U at launch will mostly already own a Wii), and then weaken. I can't see the Wii getting past 110 million without further price drops, because come 2013, it's not going to be selling very strongly at all, even at $99.

You're right, the Wii has been affordable for years... those who haven't bought it yet, though, are probably the ones that thought that $250 was much too expensive, and that $150 after six years of waiting is still too expensive. $99 is getting into the reasonable range for such people. The issue for the PS3, however, isn't affordability, it's choice.

No doubt you're questioning me saying that the 360 will be cheaper. I'm not referring to the $99 "deal" that they're offering. I'm referring to the fact that MS isn't going to allow Sony to have the cheaper console. MS can afford to lose money on their consoles and not even bat an eye, while Sony are in a tough financial position. If Sony cuts the PS3 price, expect a price cut for the Xbox 360 within a month.

You underestimate the latent interest in the Wii. To date, the Wii has dropped in price from $250 to $150. It hasn't even halved in price, after nearly 6 years.

Keep in mind, Nintendo is about to start its advertising blitz for the Wii U. One of the side effects of that advertising blitz will be a boost to Wii sales (if the price gets cut). How do I figure? Simple - the Wii will be the fallback system for people who can't afford the Wii U, if it's priced cheaply enough.

The PS2 was able to move 13.7 million units in the financial year ending March 2008. This is a good demonstration of latent demand. Do you honestly believe that the Wii, which is still more expensive than the PS2 was at the equivalent point in its life, doesn't have any latent demand?

A price drop to $99 can conceivably get it to 10.5 million. More realistically, a drop to $79 is probably neccesary to achieve it. But no, if you honestly think that it needs to drop from $150 to $29 in order to sell 10 million more, then you need a refresher course on how the market works.

And yes, price cuts do generally result in systems "flying off the shelves". When the Wii got its price cut to $150, despite being mid-year, it saw a sizeable boost to sales. That is a short term effect no matter what. But $199 is not low enough to produce strong ongoing demand - it will only produce a short-term boost. What is significant about the $99 mark is that it is a significant number in people's psyches. It's why MS have their "$99 deal" that lets them plaster "$99" on their product. It's how the PS2 managed to sell quite well all the way to 2011. To drop to that number too early can spell death, because it's seen as a "cheap product", but after 6 years, a $99 price can bring in a lot of people who were holding off. The PS3 could see a similar boost if and when it drops to $99.

I don't have a clue what "Ive made the math, even in the pessimistic scenario its going to do another 13 million if PS3 sits at 85m in April 2014" means, but any "math" you might have "made" won't be any more valuable than the typical analyst's "math". And I also don't know how it makes sense to say "don't use PS2 as a guide to what happens to PS3 when PS4 comes out", and then you predict sales comparable to PS2 type sales for the PS3.

im more surprised that the wii is even gonna struggle to 100m. remember a few years ago? most were sure, the wii would get to 150m in no time. it should be there now. now we can see, its not going to get anywhere near PS2 and will just about beat playstation. sony's original console.