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Forums - Sales - Prediction: PS3 will reach 105 million units before the Wii

 

Predictions:

Only PS3 will reach it 64 12.26%
 
Only Wii will reach it 278 53.26%
 
PS3 will reach it first 63 12.07%
 
Wii will reach it first 116 22.22%
 
Total:521
Chris Hu on 25 July 2012

I say 95 million tops for the PS3 this year will be the last big year sales wise once the Wii U is released the numbers will go down steadily especially in the US and UK and Japan. The Wii will barely get past 105 million lifetime and that's only long after the regular price is $99.



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Cobretti2 on 26 July 2012
jamesmarkus87 said:
Why again are people so convinced that PS3 is going to sell another 40 million in its lifetime?


because the super slimi is so sexy looking with its manaully operated lid for the discs, they will go out and buy a second ps3.



 

 

bouzane on 26 July 2012
Cobretti2 said:
jamesmarkus87 said:
Why again are people so convinced that PS3 is going to sell another 40 million in its lifetime?


because the super slimi is so sexy looking with its manaully operated lid for the discs, they will go out and buy a second ps3.


No offense but you don't believe that an affordable entry level model is going to have a significant, positive impact on PS3 hardware sales. The Slim is going to be popular at $200, hugely so if it debuts at $150. That being said, I personally do not believe that the PS3 has a chance to reach 105 million unit sales, let alone before the Wii.



BenVTrigger on 26 July 2012

PS3 hasnt even surpassed the 360 yet and now we have people just skipping that and already predicting whenn it will pass Wii...............ok



Cobretti2 on 26 July 2012
bouzane said:
Cobretti2 said:
jamesmarkus87 said:
Why again are people so convinced that PS3 is going to sell another 40 million in its lifetime?


because the super slimi is so sexy looking with its manaully operated lid for the discs, they will go out and buy a second ps3.


No offense but you don't believe that an affordable entry level model is going to have a significant, positive impact on PS3 hardware sales. The Slim is going to be popular at $200, hugely so if it debuts at $150. That being said, I personally do not believe that the PS3 has a chance to reach 105 million unit sales, let alone before the Wii.


Well depends on how people feel. To me that slim is just cheap looking. It might have a burst impact and then die off.

I would rather they drop the price on the current model. Then I would have good faith it would help sales along more so.



 

 

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bouzane on 26 July 2012
Cobretti2 said:
bouzane said:
Cobretti2 said:
jamesmarkus87 said:
Why again are people so convinced that PS3 is going to sell another 40 million in its lifetime?


because the super slimi is so sexy looking with its manaully operated lid for the discs, they will go out and buy a second ps3.


No offense but you don't believe that an affordable entry level model is going to have a significant, positive impact on PS3 hardware sales. The Slim is going to be popular at $200, hugely so if it debuts at $150. That being said, I personally do not believe that the PS3 has a chance to reach 105 million unit sales, let alone before the Wii.


Well depends on how people feel. To me that slim is just cheap looking. It might have a burst impact and then die off.

I would rather they drop the price on the current model. Then I would have good faith it would help sales along more so.


It doesn't really matter if it is cheap looking, the only thing that does matter is that it may actually be affordable to a large segment of the market previously unreachable at the previous price point. We would all have preferred the older model at a reduced price but that might not be sustainable.



walsufnir on 26 July 2012

another prediction:
i can guess the thread-starter to be "Turkish" only by reading the thread-title with a chance of 90%...

and no, i don't think ps3 will ever reach it. this generation will be the second-last and won't last that long because of the new generation.
ps3 lacks a "killer" title like singstar - i wonder how many ps2's were sold *only* because of singstar.



walsufnir on 26 July 2012
bouzane said:
kowenicki said:
Turkish said:
33% of PS2s have been sold since the start of this generation.
Lets use the more pessimistic scenario for PS3: It sits at 85 million in April 2014. Because PS3 was not the dominant console this gen, lets say 15% of all PS3s will be sold after PS4/720 comes out. That will leave the PS3 still sitting at around 98 million. Damn impressive, even if you're pessimistic.

can you show me the dates and source of the 33% please, just so I can do some maths to obliterate your argument.  Thanks.


http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/PlayStation_2


interesting site. combining the sales from ps2, xbox and gamecube last gen sold ~200 million consoles. by now, this gen already reached 228.9 million sales. adding another almost 40 million to ps3-sales (leaving out sales for the other 2, of course) would boost sales way beyond last gen. sorry, but that won't happen. done.



Turkish on 26 July 2012
Aielyn said:
bouzane said:
Your assertion that the PS3's sales trends will be more effected by the competition than the PS2 is based on what? You make a point of the PS2 continuing to sell because it was cheap while ignoring the fact that the new Slim PS3 might very well receive a significant price cut. No offense but Nintendo's sales forcast for the Wii is absolutely insane and I can not conceive how a human being can believe it to even be remotely possible. I usually don't speak in absolutes but the Wii is not going to sell 10.5 million for the 2013 fiscal year, it's impossible.

 

@sundin13

Thanks, I knew there was no way that Nintendo was expecting those kinds of Wii sales this year.

PS3 Super Slim, even at US$150, isn't going to sell exceptionally strongly. Especially when the Xbox 360 can be bought for similar or cheaper, and the Wii, which most of the people who haven't bought a gaming system yet won't think of as significantly different from the other two, is likely to be cheaper still.

The PS2 was already the market leader. The PS3 isn't. It doesn't have the install base the PS2 had at the equivalent time, it doesn't have the overwhelming brand recognition (in the last two generations, "Playstation" was synonymous with gaming for the general population - "Wii" how holds that distinction), and it doesn't have the huge game library. The PS3 will probably continue to be sold, and it might manage an extra, say, 10 million beyond the release of the PS4... but it won't do much more than that. It's certainly not looking at a PS2-like afterlife.

As for inclusion of Wii U in their Wii numbers... I hadn't noticed. I do think Nintendo could theoretically sell 10.5 million Wiis this financial year, but it requires a significant price cut. That it's only 10.5 million including Wii U suggests that they may actually not be planning on cutting the Wii price... which saddens me, because the system would do so well if its price was cut to $99 or lower.


They could theoretically sell 10.5 million Wii's, if they cut the price to $29, only theoretically. In no other scenario is it able to sell another 9 million this year, except when they give it away for free. 

PSThree will not sell exceptionally? Whut? PS3s were flying off the shelve when individual retailers cut the price to $199 for a limited time few months ago. Its generally known that new and cheaper hardware revisions sell like hot cakes. Ive no idea why anybody would think otherwise in this case. You really shouldn't use PS2 as an example for future PS3 sales after PS4 comes out. Ive made the math, even in the pessimistic scenario its going to do another 13 million if PS3 sits at 85m in April 2014.



Turkish on 26 July 2012
walsufnir said:
bouzane said:
kowenicki said:
Turkish said:
33% of PS2s have been sold since the start of this generation.
Lets use the more pessimistic scenario for PS3: It sits at 85 million in April 2014. Because PS3 was not the dominant console this gen, lets say 15% of all PS3s will be sold after PS4/720 comes out. That will leave the PS3 still sitting at around 98 million. Damn impressive, even if you're pessimistic.

can you show me the dates and source of the 33% please, just so I can do some maths to obliterate your argument.  Thanks.


http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/PlayStation_2


interesting site. combining the sales from ps2, xbox and gamecube last gen sold ~200 million consoles. by now, this gen already reached 228.9 million sales. adding another almost 40 million to ps3-sales (leaving out sales for the other 2, of course) would boost sales way beyond last gen. sorry, but that won't happen. done.

1/4th of those sales came this gen. Its very likely the consoles of this generation could reach 300m, or be very close.