| Turkish said: They could theoretically sell 10.5 million Wii's, if they cut the price to $29, only theoretically. In no other scenario is it able to sell another 9 million this year, except when they give it away for free. PSThree will not sell exceptionally? Whut? PS3s were flying off the shelve when individual retailers cut the price to $199 for a limited time few months ago. Its generally known that new and cheaper hardware revisions sell like hot cakes. Ive no idea why anybody would think otherwise in this case. You really shouldn't use PS2 as an example for future PS3 sales after PS4 comes out. Ive made the math, even in the pessimistic scenario its going to do another 13 million if PS3 sits at 85m in April 2014. |
You underestimate the latent interest in the Wii. To date, the Wii has dropped in price from $250 to $150. It hasn't even halved in price, after nearly 6 years.
Keep in mind, Nintendo is about to start its advertising blitz for the Wii U. One of the side effects of that advertising blitz will be a boost to Wii sales (if the price gets cut). How do I figure? Simple - the Wii will be the fallback system for people who can't afford the Wii U, if it's priced cheaply enough.
The PS2 was able to move 13.7 million units in the financial year ending March 2008. This is a good demonstration of latent demand. Do you honestly believe that the Wii, which is still more expensive than the PS2 was at the equivalent point in its life, doesn't have any latent demand?
A price drop to $99 can conceivably get it to 10.5 million. More realistically, a drop to $79 is probably neccesary to achieve it. But no, if you honestly think that it needs to drop from $150 to $29 in order to sell 10 million more, then you need a refresher course on how the market works.
And yes, price cuts do generally result in systems "flying off the shelves". When the Wii got its price cut to $150, despite being mid-year, it saw a sizeable boost to sales. That is a short term effect no matter what. But $199 is not low enough to produce strong ongoing demand - it will only produce a short-term boost. What is significant about the $99 mark is that it is a significant number in people's psyches. It's why MS have their "$99 deal" that lets them plaster "$99" on their product. It's how the PS2 managed to sell quite well all the way to 2011. To drop to that number too early can spell death, because it's seen as a "cheap product", but after 6 years, a $99 price can bring in a lot of people who were holding off. The PS3 could see a similar boost if and when it drops to $99.
I don't have a clue what "Ive made the math, even in the pessimistic scenario its going to do another 13 million if PS3 sits at 85m in April 2014" means, but any "math" you might have "made" won't be any more valuable than the typical analyst's "math". And I also don't know how it makes sense to say "don't use PS2 as a guide to what happens to PS3 when PS4 comes out", and then you predict sales comparable to PS2 type sales for the PS3.
