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Forums - Sales - Prediction: PS3 will reach 105 million units before the Wii

 

Predictions:

Only PS3 will reach it 64 12.26%
 
Only Wii will reach it 278 53.26%
 
PS3 will reach it first 63 12.07%
 
Wii will reach it first 116 22.22%
 
Total:521
Conegamer on 26 July 2012
-CraZed- said:
Conegamer said:
Ahahaha, people seriously believe this?

No way will the PS3 sell any more than 10mil a year after this year. And it will NOT have the selling power of the PS2, because the PS2 was dominant then, and gaming has changed. It's near saturation. Only the Wii will hit it, and will hit it late 2013/early 2014.

The way I see it, PS3 will sell:

2012- 11mil (-20% YoY)
2013- 7-8mil (-28% or -35% YoY), PS4 launch
2014- 4mil (-50%ish)
2015- Minimum sales, say another 5-10mil overall

And this is being optimistic. This would leave the PS3 at around 90 mil when all is said and done. Damn respectable, but where are these other magical numbers coming from? Where's the other 15mil? That would require an entire year of 2011 sales to be added onto these numbers, and that isn't happening. The only possibility is the Slim boosts sales a bit more than expected, so 12mil this year, and add another 1mil on there. But there's still a huge shortfall.

All the Wii needs to do is sell another 9 mil LT. Expecting another 4 this year, and 2 the year after, so it'll trickle to 105mil. But no way will the PS3 get near it.

Wii will not hit it especially after Wii-U hits. Sales have already slowed way down for the Wii even with it being the cheapest system on the market. Once the Wii-u comes out I expect Nintendo will pretty much forget about it and the slaes will continue to drop way before it sells another 9 million.

So why will the PS3 sell another 40mil from here, whilst the Wii can't sell 8? When the PS4 comes out next year, it'd have to sell around 30mil, maaaaybe 25mil, with the PS4 out. So why won't the PS3 get effected?



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

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SOLIDSNAKE08 on 26 July 2012
Conegamer said:
-CraZed- said:
Conegamer said:
Ahahaha, people seriously believe this?

No way will the PS3 sell any more than 10mil a year after this year. And it will NOT have the selling power of the PS2, because the PS2 was dominant then, and gaming has changed. It's near saturation. Only the Wii will hit it, and will hit it late 2013/early 2014.

The way I see it, PS3 will sell:

2012- 11mil (-20% YoY)
2013- 7-8mil (-28% or -35% YoY), PS4 launch
2014- 4mil (-50%ish)
2015- Minimum sales, say another 5-10mil overall

And this is being optimistic. This would leave the PS3 at around 90 mil when all is said and done. Damn respectable, but where are these other magical numbers coming from? Where's the other 15mil? That would require an entire year of 2011 sales to be added onto these numbers, and that isn't happening. The only possibility is the Slim boosts sales a bit more than expected, so 12mil this year, and add another 1mil on there. But there's still a huge shortfall.

All the Wii needs to do is sell another 9 mil LT. Expecting another 4 this year, and 2 the year after, so it'll trickle to 105mil. But no way will the PS3 get near it.

Wii will not hit it especially after Wii-U hits. Sales have already slowed way down for the Wii even with it being the cheapest system on the market. Once the Wii-u comes out I expect Nintendo will pretty much forget about it and the slaes will continue to drop way before it sells another 9 million.

So why will the PS3 sell another 40mil from here, whilst the Wii can't sell 8? When the PS4 comes out next year, it'd have to sell around 30mil, maaaaybe 25mil, with the PS4 out. So why won't the PS3 get effected?

IF the ps4 comes out next year



bouzane on 26 July 2012
Conegamer said:
-CraZed- said:
Conegamer said:
Ahahaha, people seriously believe this?

No way will the PS3 sell any more than 10mil a year after this year. And it will NOT have the selling power of the PS2, because the PS2 was dominant then, and gaming has changed. It's near saturation. Only the Wii will hit it, and will hit it late 2013/early 2014.

The way I see it, PS3 will sell:

2012- 11mil (-20% YoY)
2013- 7-8mil (-28% or -35% YoY), PS4 launch
2014- 4mil (-50%ish)
2015- Minimum sales, say another 5-10mil overall

And this is being optimistic. This would leave the PS3 at around 90 mil when all is said and done. Damn respectable, but where are these other magical numbers coming from? Where's the other 15mil? That would require an entire year of 2011 sales to be added onto these numbers, and that isn't happening. The only possibility is the Slim boosts sales a bit more than expected, so 12mil this year, and add another 1mil on there. But there's still a huge shortfall.

All the Wii needs to do is sell another 9 mil LT. Expecting another 4 this year, and 2 the year after, so it'll trickle to 105mil. But no way will the PS3 get near it.

Wii will not hit it especially after Wii-U hits. Sales have already slowed way down for the Wii even with it being the cheapest system on the market. Once the Wii-u comes out I expect Nintendo will pretty much forget about it and the slaes will continue to drop way before it sells another 9 million.

So why will the PS3 sell another 40mil from here, whilst the Wii can't sell 8? When the PS4 comes out next year, it'd have to sell around 30mil, maaaaybe 25mil, with the PS4 out. So why won't the PS3 get effected?


We don't have any proof that the PS3 is being released next year. Also, Sony has always supported their consoles well beyond the launch of their successors unlike Nintendo. Furthermore, the PS3 is selling well and is looking at a new model and price cut. That being said, I don't see it happening personally. I can see the PS4 being launched in late 2013 with the PS3 ending up around 95 million LTD.



Conegamer on 26 July 2012
bouzane said:
Conegamer said:
-CraZed- said:
Conegamer said:
Ahahaha, people seriously believe this?

No way will the PS3 sell any more than 10mil a year after this year. And it will NOT have the selling power of the PS2, because the PS2 was dominant then, and gaming has changed. It's near saturation. Only the Wii will hit it, and will hit it late 2013/early 2014.

The way I see it, PS3 will sell:

2012- 11mil (-20% YoY)
2013- 7-8mil (-28% or -35% YoY), PS4 launch
2014- 4mil (-50%ish)
2015- Minimum sales, say another 5-10mil overall

And this is being optimistic. This would leave the PS3 at around 90 mil when all is said and done. Damn respectable, but where are these other magical numbers coming from? Where's the other 15mil? That would require an entire year of 2011 sales to be added onto these numbers, and that isn't happening. The only possibility is the Slim boosts sales a bit more than expected, so 12mil this year, and add another 1mil on there. But there's still a huge shortfall.

All the Wii needs to do is sell another 9 mil LT. Expecting another 4 this year, and 2 the year after, so it'll trickle to 105mil. But no way will the PS3 get near it.

Wii will not hit it especially after Wii-U hits. Sales have already slowed way down for the Wii even with it being the cheapest system on the market. Once the Wii-u comes out I expect Nintendo will pretty much forget about it and the slaes will continue to drop way before it sells another 9 million.

So why will the PS3 sell another 40mil from here, whilst the Wii can't sell 8? When the PS4 comes out next year, it'd have to sell around 30mil, maaaaybe 25mil, with the PS4 out. So why won't the PS3 get effected?


We don't have any proof that the PS3 is being released next year. Also, Sony has always supported their consoles well beyond the launch of their successors unlike Nintendo. Furthermore, the PS3 is selling well and is looking at a new model and price cut. That being said, I don't see it happening personally. I can see the PS4 being launched in late 2013 with the PS3 ending up around 95 million LTD.

That's true, but it'd be madness if the PS4 isn't out within 12-18 months of the WiiU, like the PSV/3DS scenario. The PS3 may be better supported, and I'm not denying it'll sell better in its twilight years. BUT, I don't see it selling more than 15mil or so, ending at 90. Anything more is crazy.



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

bouzane on 26 July 2012
Conegamer said:
bouzane said:
Conegamer said:
-CraZed- said:
Conegamer said:
Ahahaha, people seriously believe this?

No way will the PS3 sell any more than 10mil a year after this year. And it will NOT have the selling power of the PS2, because the PS2 was dominant then, and gaming has changed. It's near saturation. Only the Wii will hit it, and will hit it late 2013/early 2014.

The way I see it, PS3 will sell:

2012- 11mil (-20% YoY)
2013- 7-8mil (-28% or -35% YoY), PS4 launch
2014- 4mil (-50%ish)
2015- Minimum sales, say another 5-10mil overall

And this is being optimistic. This would leave the PS3 at around 90 mil when all is said and done. Damn respectable, but where are these other magical numbers coming from? Where's the other 15mil? That would require an entire year of 2011 sales to be added onto these numbers, and that isn't happening. The only possibility is the Slim boosts sales a bit more than expected, so 12mil this year, and add another 1mil on there. But there's still a huge shortfall.

All the Wii needs to do is sell another 9 mil LT. Expecting another 4 this year, and 2 the year after, so it'll trickle to 105mil. But no way will the PS3 get near it.

Wii will not hit it especially after Wii-U hits. Sales have already slowed way down for the Wii even with it being the cheapest system on the market. Once the Wii-u comes out I expect Nintendo will pretty much forget about it and the slaes will continue to drop way before it sells another 9 million.

So why will the PS3 sell another 40mil from here, whilst the Wii can't sell 8? When the PS4 comes out next year, it'd have to sell around 30mil, maaaaybe 25mil, with the PS4 out. So why won't the PS3 get effected?


We don't have any proof that the PS3 is being released next year. Also, Sony has always supported their consoles well beyond the launch of their successors unlike Nintendo. Furthermore, the PS3 is selling well and is looking at a new model and price cut. That being said, I don't see it happening personally. I can see the PS4 being launched in late 2013 with the PS3 ending up around 95 million LTD.

That's true, but it'd be madness if the PS4 isn't out within 12-18 months of the WiiU, like the PSV/3DS scenario. The PS3 may be better supported, and I'm not denying it'll sell better in its twilight years. BUT, I don't see it selling more than 15mil or so, ending at 90. Anything more is crazy.


Sony is expecting to have what, 72-73 million PS3's sold by the end of the year? I don't see how it's impossible for the PS3 to break 80 million pre PS4 launch and to see 15 million unit sales post PS4 launch. I really don't see it as much of a stretch considering the company's business model.



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BenVTrigger on 26 July 2012

The only reason I brought up the 360 point is because its relevant. In order for what your predicting to happen the PS3 litteraly has to explode in sales, while completly ignoring any moves MS will make to counteract this happening. My point is simply that your getting WAY ahead of yourself saying the PS3 will pass the Wii when it hasnt even passed the 360 yet.

I dont believe PS3 has a chance of hitting 105 million first because it has a strong competitor holding it back. The huge problem with a lot of people data in here is they are expecting the PS3 to sell like PS2 did during the end of its life. It wont though, not even close. The reason PS2 still sold so well after the start of this gen is due to it being the cheapest console with really zero competition from Xbox or Gamecube. The PS3 however is far from dominant and as it gets cheaper so will the 360 which will cannebalize many of the potential sales the PS3 could get at the end of its life. The situation is NOTHING like the PS2



bouzane on 26 July 2012
BenVTrigger said:
The only reason I brought up the 360 point is because its relevant. In order for what your predicting to happen the PS3 litteraly has to explode in sales, while completly ignoring any moves MS will make to counteract this happening. My point is simply that your getting WAY ahead of yourself saying the PS3 will pass the Wii when it hasnt even passed the 360 yet.

I dont believe PS3 has a chance of hitting 105 million first because it has a strong competitor holding it back. The huge problem with a lot of people data in here is they are expecting the PS3 to sell like PS2 did during the end of its life. It wont though, not even close. The reason PS2 still sold so well after the start of this gen is due to it being the cheapest console with really zero competition from Xbox or Gamecube. The PS3 however is far from dominant and as it gets cheaper so will the 360 which will cannebalize many of the potential sales the PS3 could get at the end of its life. The situation is NOTHING like the PS2


What if Microsoft discontinues the 360 around the launch of the Trinity / Delta while Sony continues to support the PS3 post PS4 launch? It's entirely possible and it would generate several million additional unit sales.



BenVTrigger on 26 July 2012

@ bouzane

Now if that happened it would be entirely possible, still difficult no doubt but it would help PS3s chances because anyone waiting to upgrade to a cheap HD system would have an easyier choice on which to pick and it could easiky add millions to the PS3s potential sales.

That being said I honestly see Sony killing off the PS3 faster than MS killing the 360 for one significant reason. MS is making hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars from XBOX Live while Sony has no such income from the PS3.

Basically I think the 360 is the main obstacle in the way of the PS3 at this point. Their libraries are almost identical, Xbox has hurt the Playstation brand name too much in the West, and 360 will easily be just as cheap and supported as PS3 at the end of this generation. All this combined drastically changed the way PS3 will sell in comparison to PS2



TheShape31 on 26 July 2012
pezus said:
TheShape31 said:
pezus said:
Turkish said:
SOLIDSNAKE08 said:
how many wii's sold so far in 2012?


1.5m

Around 5-6m for the year, I'd say. Absolutely horrible drop

We're over half way through the year, and the holidays are going to be focused around the Wii U.  They'll be lucky to sell any more than 4m by the end of the year.  And I figure they'll be selling half as much as the year before from then on.  It may very well take several years for the Wii to hit 105m total sales, which makes it all the more possible for PS3 to be in a legitimate race to that number.

In their defense, Wii generally sells well during the holidays so it might just squeeze 5.5m or so.


Wii usually DID, but there's a new console coming out that renders it obsolete.  With the Wii U coming out, there's little-to-no reason to buy it.  Sales will drop significantly due to that, and the upcoming price drops/redesigns from Sony and Microsoft, respectively. 



bouzane on 26 July 2012
BenVTrigger said:
@ bouzane

Now if that happened it would be entirely possible, still difficult no doubt but it would help PS3s chances because anyone waiting to upgrade to a cheap HD system would have an easyier choice on which to pick and it could easiky add millions to the PS3s potential sales.

That being said I honestly see Sony killing off the PS3 faster than MS killing the 360 for one significant reason. MS is making hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars from XBOX Live while Sony has no such income from the PS3.

Basically I think the 360 is the main obstacle in the way of the PS3 at this point. Their libraries are almost identical, Xbox has hurt the Playstation brand name too much in the West, and 360 will easily be just as cheap and supported as PS3 at the end of this generation. All this combined drastically changed the way PS3 will sell in comparison to PS2


Many valid points but I have to point out a couple things. Much of Microsoft's revenue comes from their Live service which isn't really tied to the 360. There's no need to support the actual platform to continue generating this revenue. Sony is generating plenty of software sales with the PS3 and they really, really need it now. They don't have another successful platform so discontinuing the PS3 too early could really hurt them. Again, the 360 is lagging behind the PS3 in terms of weekly sales and I don't see that changing with the new Slim PS3 coming out. Finally, Sony is still developing games for the PS3, namely The Last of Us. While Naughty Dog isn't the biggest developer in the world they are Sony's most critically acclaimed and successful studio this generation so this is a major commitment to the platform. Personally, while I see the possibility of the PS3 being discontinued prior to the 360 I do not believe it to be a likely scenario.