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Forums - Sales - How long until PS3 overtakes the 360 in total sales?

I think if MS went with completely free Live Service, and did a price cut of $50 it would go along way in the current market. While it may seem that price cuts don't help consoles, you couldn't be further from correct on the matter. Many consumers will simply not spend the money for a console, won't even look at it if the price is too high. "Perceived Value" for entertainment is different for different people and different classes of people. A lower income family may not be willing to spend $300 for a video game system and then $60 a game there after. However, if a system is $250 and games range in price from $30 to $50-$60 there is a better perceived value to the investment of a home console.



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@HappySqurriel,

i JUST want to see the answers to my questions, THAT IS ALL. :)



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

CrazzyMan said:
@HappySqurriel,

i JUST want to see the answers to my questions, THAT IS ALL. :)

Well I can't answer the question because at this time last year all of the big budget PS3 games that "will" be released in 2008 were going to be released in 2007; it is very likely that several of these games could see further delays which would push their release back (at least in some regions) until 2008. Beyond that there were several big exclusive games released in 2007 which were highly hyped as the savior of the PS3 and only after they were poorly reviewed (or sold poorly) did people stop seeing them as being so valueable.



I will HELP you a little. =)

Brands were originally developed as labels of ownership: name, term, design, symbol. However, today it is what they do for people that matters much more, how they reflect and engage them, how they define their aspiration and enable them to do more. Powerful brands can drive success in competitive and financial markets, and indeed become the organisation’s most valuable assets.

Brand equity measures the total value of the brand to the brand owner, and reflects the extent of brand franchise. The term brand name is often used interchangeably with "brand", although it is more correctly used to specifically denote written or spoken linguistic elements of a brand. In this context a "brand name" constitutes a type of trademark, if the brand name exclusively identifies the brand owner as the commercial source of products or services. A brand owner may seek to protect proprietary rights in relation to a brand name through trademark registration.
Now how many exclusive BRAND games in 2007 were released on PS3 and how many of them are aimed for 2008?



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

CrazzyMan said:
I will HELP you a little. =)
Brands were originally developed as labels of ownership: name, term, design, symbol. However, today it is what they do for people that matters much more, how they reflect and engage them, how they define their aspiration and enable them to do more. Powerful brands can drive success in competitive and financial markets, and indeed become the organisation’s most valuable assets.

Brand equity measures the total value of the brand to the brand owner, and reflects the extent of brand franchise. The term brand name is often used interchangeably with "brand", although it is more correctly used to specifically denote written or spoken linguistic elements of a brand. In this context a "brand name" constitutes a type of trademark, if the brand name exclusively identifies the brand owner as the commercial source of products or services. A brand owner may seek to protect proprietary rights in relation to a brand name through trademark registration.
Now how many exclusive BRAND games in 2007 were released on PS3 and how many of them are aimed for 2008?

CrazzyMan, it is still a matter of definition ... Ridge Racer, Everybody's Golf, Ratchet and Clank, NBA 07/08, MLB 07: The Show, Time Crisis, Unreal Tournament and Gundam Musou were all large brands which were exclusively (on some level) released for the PS3 in 2007. In 2008 there are more announced exclusive big brand games, but there is little saying they will remain exclusive or that they will even sell well.



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I would say that the PS3 will edge the 360 in 2009/2010. Sony is unleashing their big guns this year and it could convince people to purchase a PS3 this year. The library isn't that great like the 360 or the Wii, but it does have a library: Something that couldn't be said a year ago. Although, there is that GTAIV factor, and I'm really curious what will happen. I think software sales will be better on the 360, but what I would like to know is which console will have a significant hardware boost from it. Also, who will feel froggy first with another price cut, Microsoft or Sony?



rocketpig said:
CrazzyMan said:
Now seriously, when MGS4, KZ2, R2, LBP, GT5, T6, FFXIII, WKS, GoW3 will be released on PS3, nothing will help x360. =))

price cuts didn`t helped GC/xbox, why would help to x360? a mystery. =))

Hahaha, that's CrazzyMan! "MGS4, KZ2, R2, LBP, GT5, T6, FFXIII, WKS, GoW3, MGS4, KZ2, R2, LBP, GT5, T6, FFXIII, WKS, GoW3, MGS4, KZ2, R2, LBP, GT5, T6, FFXIII, WKS, GoW3, MGS4, KZ2, R2, LBP, GT5, T6, FFXIII, WKS, GoW3, MGS4, KZ2, R2, LBP, GT5, T6, FFXIII, WKS, GoW3, MGS4, KZ2, R2, LBP, GT5, T6, FFXIII, WKS, GoW3, MGS4, KZ2, R2, LBP, GT5, T6, FFXIII, WKS, GoW3, MGS4, KZ2, R2, LBP, GT5, T6, FFXIII, WKS, GoW3, MGS4, KZ2, R2, LBP, GT5, T6, FFXIII, WKS, GoW3, MGS4, KZ2, R2, LBP, GT5, T6, FFXIII, WKS, GoW3,MGS4, KZ2, R2, LBP, GT5, T6, FFXIII, WKS, GoW3, MGS4, KZ2, R2, LBP, GT5, T6, FFXIII, WKS, GoW3, MGS4, KZ2, R2, LBP, GT5, T6, FFXIII, WKS, GoW3, MGS4, KZ2, R2, LBP, GT5, T6, FFXIII, WKS, GoW3, MGS4, KZ2, R2, LBP, GT5, T6, FFXIII, WKS, GoW3, MGS4, KZ2, R2, LBP, GT5, T6, FFXIII, WKS, GoW3"



CrazzyMan said:
@Nidan:
just a few questions.

1) You think, that all people who care about MGS4, KZ2, R2, LBP, GT5, T6, FFXIII, WKS, GoW3 already bought ps3, Right?
2) people who care about MGS4, KZ2, R2, LBP, GT5, T6, FFXIII, WKS, GoW3 are SAME people, Right?
3) by how much there will be increase (if there will be), when all these MGS4, KZ2, R2, LBP, GT5, T6, FFXIII, WKS, GoW3 games will be released?

and yes, PS3 need to outsell x360 by 140k every week to match x360 numbers, for now it`s:
70k behind on previous week, and 125k behind this week.
BUT numbers are very close to ps2 numbers of 2001 and ps2 sold 16 mln. in 2001 with MGS2, FFX, GTA3, DMC, GT3. =)

@ Cazzzzzyyyman.

1. no not at all, just like Halo 3 the ps3 will see a boost in sales when and if those title launch, the size depending on other market factors like competing titles etc. THe equation is not 1+1+1+1 =4 it would be far more complex as some people like more than one game on the list.

2. Can you clarify the question a little?

3. Complex question. I would say as much as halo3 but no more to as little as 50K increase. but it is quite complex.

My only comment is about the ps2 numbers, there are alot of things which are different now, which would be and not limited to

  1. MS has been accepted as a long term player
  2. MS lauched a year earlier
  3. MS has a larger install base
  4. HD content cost much more $$ to make
  5. MS has a lower cost to manufacture
  6. Developers are lazy and tend to take the easy option
  7. Nintendo has shaken the apple cart
  8. Far less exclusives
  9. Sony needs to return a profit
  10. MS is a formidable opponent and sony knows it
  11. MS is really good with software
  12. MS has a very strong lineup (otherwise they would be idiots)
  13. ....
I dont disagree that sony could overtake MS, But logic at this time is saying it would be hard + for all of our sakes, I want it to be a tie, so that the big guys fight it out and we win with better pricing and a choice of which platform and which games.

 



Predictions JAN 08

2008 PS3-19.5M(actual 19.5) XBOX360-23M(actual 27.5) Wii - 37M(actual 45.8M)

End of 2009 PS3-27 25M XBOX360-30 35M Wii - 48 63M (revised DEC 08)

Price Point
Mid 2008 Wii $250 Xbox360$249 Xbox360(HDD)$299 PS3 $399

Mid 2009 Wii $189 Xbox360$199 Xbox360(HDD)$249 PS3 $339

Mid 2010 Wii $ 149 Xbox360$159 Xbox360(HDD)$199 PS3 $289

CrazzyMan said:
Now seriously, when MGS4, KZ2, R2, LBP, GT5, T6, FFXIII, WKS, GoW3 will be released on PS3, nothing will help x360. =))

price cuts didn`t helped GC/xbox, why would help to x360? a mystery. =))

As for the XBox, the price cut was made in order to catch Sony. The PS2 price cuts led, and MS had to cut just to keep up. Coming just months after the system launched, this really hurt their production costs, and didn't have as much of a benefit as it's shiny new library paled in comparison to the PS3. Now, a 360 price cut could give an even more significant price advantage (possibly more than $100) over the PS3, and likely would not cut into profits as much as the console costs must be considerably lower 2+ years after launch. Then add on what is currently the best library of this generation, including the biggest non-packaged game (Halo 3), and what is perceived (fairly or not) as the best online service, and it becomes a much more attractive package.

CrazzyMan said:
FOR the Unbelievers:
http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=PS2&reg1=All&cons2=PS2&reg2=Total+Other&cons3=PS2&reg3=Japan&start=36891&end=37255

PS3 2008 (2nd year) - PS2 2001(2nd year)
05th January <> 05th January
Total - 269k <> Total - 247k
Others - 125k <> Others - 81k
Japan - 75k <> Japan - 87k

12th January <> 11th January
Total - ??? <> Total - 150k
Others - 58k <> Others - 54k
Japan - ??? <> Japan - 32k

In 2001 were released games like GTA3, GT3, FFX, DMC, MGS2.
Sony sold 16 mln. PS2.

 The PS2 was released in 2000 so if 2008 is the PS3's 2nd year that makes 2001 PS2's 1st year.

So you are saying that the PS3 in its second year is outselling the PS2 in its first year when it was supply constrained and hope to gain valid conclusion from that? 

The reason the PS2 sold so much that year despite that poor start was because it had that poor start due to supply constraint and the demand was higher than that so that when these constraints were removed the sales increased to where demand really was. The games that came out that year helped t osustain and increase that demand but it was there to start with.

The reason the PS3 won't sell as much in 08 as the PS2 in 01 is because while they start similarly, the PS3 is not supply constrained so that is an accurate representation of the current demand and the games comign out this year will act as multipliers for that demand whereas the games in the same series acted as multipliers to a higher initial demand on the PS2.

 Also, because some of those games (DM4 but especially GTA4) are multiplatform with the PS3 it means that the multiplier will be smaller than it was last gen so you get a smaller multiplier for those games applied to a smaller demand. Another multiplier that will either not happen or be smaller on the PS3 is the PS2 price cut to $200. While hte PS3 might have another price cut this year it would most likely be to $300 and would thus have less effect than the PS2 cut to $200 as $300 still isn't a mass market price.

So you start with a console having a smaller initial demand than the PS2, apply to that demand smaller multipliers due to non-exclusivity/lackluster-price-drop and you expect it to sell as well as the PS2?

I guess ___O_o______ was right about you getting flamed, but you sure as hell asked for it:

 

For a more valid comparison here is the PS2 in early 2002, its second full year, against the PS3 in beginning 2008, its second full year: 

 PS3 2008 (2nd year) - PS2 2002(2nd year)
06th January 08 <> 06th January 02
Total - 275k <> Total - 598k
Others - 138k <> Total Others - 146k
Japan - 68k <> Japan - 346k

13th January 08 <> 13th January 02
Total - 146 <> Total - 320k
Others - 62k <> Total Others - 103k
Japan - 34k <> Japan - 126k

All of a sudden, when you use valid comparisons things don't look so good for the PS3. 



"I do not suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it"