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Forums - Sales Discussion - How long until PS3 overtakes the 360 in total sales?

CrazzyMan on 17 January 2008

@Sri Lumpa,

FFX, GT3, MGS2, GTA3, DMC were released in 2001, NOT in 2002.
FFXIII, GT5, MGS4, GTA4, DMC4 will be released in 2008.

YOU can compare PS2 sales of 2002 with PS3 sales 2008, BUT this is POINTLESS, because in 2002 ALL games were already released, why TODAY in 2008 January NO FFXIII, GT5, MGS4, GTA4, DMC4 available!!!

Also, because some of those games (DM4 but especially GTA4) are multiplatform with the PS3 it means that the multiplier will be smaller than it was last gen so you get a smaller multiplier for those games applied to a smaller demand.
Say that to JAPANESE gamers. =))
Another multiplier that will either not happen or be smaller on the PS3 is the PS2 price cut to $200.
price cut was in MAY 2002, looser.
So you start with a console having a smaller initial demand than the PS2, apply to that demand smaller multipliers due to non-exclusivity/lackluster-price-drop and you expect it to sell as well as the PS2?
PS3 is DEMANDED, just price is not 299$ YET.

@misterd,
PS3 during THIS year will BETTER then x360 in ALL ways, and it can cost 50$ more, because it has blu-ray player. Price difference is RIGHT.
And guess how many people will buy PS3 for 349$? =)

@HappySqurriel,
i will answer instead of you.
In 2007 was released ZERO Big BRAND exclusive games on ps3.
in 2008 will be released atleast THREE GAMES. It could end with FIVE, time will show.

@Nidan,
1. no not at all, just like Halo 3 the ps3 will see a boost in sales when and if those title launch, the size depending on other market factors like competing titles etc. THe equation is not 1+1+1+1 =4 it would be far more complex as some people like more than one game on the list.
a) WRONG. All who wanted to play halo already bought console by it`s release. btw i was saying that before game was released.
b) You suppose THAT all 9 mln. PS3 users are Gran turismo Fans?
Gran Turismo 3 14.87m
Gran Turismo 4 8.87m
THINK again.
2. Can you clarify the question a little?

every PS3 user who will buy Gran turismo 5 also will buy MGS4, KZ2, R2, LBP, T6, FFXIII, WKS, GoW3 ? These are same people?

3. Complex question. I would say as much as halo3 but no more to as little as 50K increase. but it is quite complex.
Halo 3 was overrated, overhyped. + Halo fans base already bought all x360 by that time. While there aLOT of people waiting to buy PS3 at 299$-349$ bundled with GT5 or MGS4, or FFXIII.

My only comment is about the ps2 numbers, there are alot of things which are different now, which would be and not limited to
MS has been accepted as a long term player
MS lauched a year earlier
MS has a larger install base
HD content cost much more $$ to make
MS has a lower cost to manufacture
Developers are lazy and tend to take the easy option
Nintendo has shaken the apple cart
Far less exclusives
Sony needs to return a profit
MS is a formidable opponent and sony knows it
MS is really good with software
MS has a very strong lineup (otherwise they would be idiots)

still FAILED in Japan.
The gap is closing.
Not in Japan, soon will be catched by PS3.
M$ HAS NOTHING in 2008.
gears of war 2 won`t save them.



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

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Onslaught360 on 17 January 2008

2013



Sri Lumpa on 17 January 2008

CrazzyMan said:
@Sri Lumpa,

FFX, GT3, MGS2, GTA3, DMC were released in 2001, NOT in 2002.
FFXIII, GT5, MGS4, GTA4, DMC4 will be released in 2008.

YOU can compare PS2 sales of 2002 with PS3 sales 2008, BUT this is POINTLESS, because in 2002 ALL games were already released,

And comparing it with 2001 is pointless too because the demand for PS3 so far in 2008 is much smaller than for PS2 in 2001 (or is PS3 sold out worldwide?).

why TODAY in 2008 January NO FFXIII, GT5, MGS4, GTA4, DMC4 available!!!

Also, because some of those games (DM4 but especially GTA4) are multiplatform with the PS3 it means that the multiplier will be smaller than it was last gen so you get a smaller multiplier for those games applied to a smaller demand.
Say that to JAPANESE gamers. =))

Japan is the smallest of the three main markets and so far high selling PS2 franchises have been selling 1/2 to 1/3 on PS3 what they sold on PS2.

Another multiplier that will either not happen or be smaller on the PS3 is the PS2 price cut to $200.
price cut was in MAY 2002, looser.

oops, indeed, my mistake, so it is a multiplier that did not apply to the PS2 in 2001 that might apply to the PS3 if Sony can cut the price again this year (hopefully at the current rate of price cuts I can buy a PS3 for $100 in 2009 )

So you start with a console having a smaller initial demand than the PS2, apply to that demand smaller multipliers due to non-exclusivity/lackluster-price-drop and you expect it to sell as well as the PS2?

PS3 is DEMANDED, just price is not 299$ YET.

And the longer it takes for it to drop to that price the more the demand will drop as not everybody will wait for it to drop to $300 to buy a current gen console. 

@misterd,
PS3 during THIS year will BETTER then x360 in ALL ways, and it can cost 50$ more, because it has blu-ray player. Price difference is RIGHT.
And guess how many people will buy PS3 for 349$? =)

@HappySqurriel,
i will answer instead of you.
In 2007 was released ZERO Big BRAND exclusive games on ps3.

 Tell that to the japanese who had Minna No Golf, Shin Sangoku Musou, Pro Evolution Soccer 2008 which are series that all had at least one million seller on the PS2 and that sold less than half that on the PS3.

Point taken for Europe/Others, but only MGS4 and GT5 will have a big impact against the 360 as GTA4 is also on 360 and other games are much smaller so it only makes one assured and maybe 2 if GT5 releases this year (I assume that FFXIII will not be in 2008 otherwise add it to indeed make 3). Games like LBP, WKS and Infamous have to prove themselves first before being tooted as PS3 saviors. Games like DMC4, KZ2 should sell respectable software but due to their good but not great sales on PS2 they are unlikely to save the PS3 either.

in 2008 will be released atleast THREE GAMES. It could end with FIVE, time will show.

@Nidan,

1. no not at all, just like Halo 3 the ps3 will see a boost in sales when and if those title launch, the size depending on other market factors like competing titles etc. THe equation is not 1+1+1+1 =4 it would be far more complex as some people like more than one game on the list.
a) WRONG. All who wanted to play halo already bought console by it`s release. btw i was saying that before game was released.

Apparently not as it moved an extra 500k (approx) 360 around the Halo 3 launch. Halo 3 is a game in a 5-8 million selling franchise with a very dedicated fanbase that is ready to buy a console just for it so don't expect any PS3 game but Gran Turismo and maybe MGS4 (if Sony is lucky) to move that kind of numbers.

GTA4 might, if MS fails to advertise the 360 version+ downloadable content properly to the old PS2 buyers but it is unlikely.


b) You suppose THAT all 9 mln. PS3 users are Gran turismo Fans?
Gran Turismo 3 14.87m
Gran Turismo 4 8.87m
THINK again.

2. Can you clarify the question a little?

every PS3 user who will buy Gran turismo 5 also will buy MGS4, KZ2, R2, LBP, T6, FFXIII, WKS, GoW3 ? These are same people?

3. Complex question. I would say as much as halo3 but no more to as little as 50K increase. but it is quite complex.
Halo 3 was overrated, overhyped. + Halo fans base already bought all x360 by that time. While there aLOT of people waiting to buy PS3 at 299$-349$ bundled with GT5 or MGS4, or FFXIII.

My only comment is about the ps2 numbers, there are alot of things which are different now, which would be and not limited to
MS has been accepted as a long term player
MS lauched a year earlier
MS has a larger install base
HD content cost much more $$ to make
MS has a lower cost to manufacture
Developers are lazy and tend to take the easy option
Nintendo has shaken the apple cart
Far less exclusives
Sony needs to return a profit
MS is a formidable opponent and sony knows it
MS is really good with software
MS has a very strong lineup (otherwise they would be idiots)

still FAILED in Japan.
The gap is closing.
Not in Japan, soon will be catched by PS3.
M$ HAS NOTHING in 2008.
gears of war 2 won`t save them.


 PS3 should do better this year, but not good enough to sell 7M more than the 360.



"I do not suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it"

 

MaxwellGT2000 on 19 January 2008
CrazzyMan said:

MaxwellGT2000,

Most anticipated games are on other consoles,
yeah, DREAM ON.
I don't even think they have a chance in the US anymore due to bad press and everyone has adopted 360 and Wii,
What BAD press PS3 had in 2008? You think it WILL? LOL.

This year will see a $250 X360 Premium and 10 million consoles sold. PS3 will remain at $400 for the first ½ of the year, but drop to $300 in the holiday season. Ps3 will sell around 9 million during 2008.
WHO need a CRAPPY console with average games in 2008? Only CHEAP people.


HappySqurriel, SO WHAT? WHO CARES?
HOW THIS effect sales on 05th January 2001 for PS2 and 06th January 2008 for PS3? What is YOUR POINT? we speak about SALES of the BEGINING of YEAR.
WE SPEAK ABOUT SALES for THE BEGINING of 2nd YEAR.
PS2 and PS3 launched BOTH at different time. BUT NOW we speak about THE BEGINING of THE YEAR. ARE YOU BLIND? BEGINING.

@HappySqurriel,

simple question.
Why it`s matter, for sales of the begining of the year for BOTH console, that they were selling before in different way? IF they NOW selling in same way per week.
Because... ???


Hey, why dont you quote my whole sentences there buddy, I gave you facts, you gave me your opinions filled with the "LOL's" and illogic, just give it a rest please, when people make logical factual opinions don't sit there and go "LOL OMG WTF" at them, get a life, and read up on the subjects you talk about and save us all some time.  To everyone that actually looked at the facts cheers to you!



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shams on 26 January 2008

Its still *way* to early to be talking about PS3 overtaking 360.

The 360 is still spanking the PS3 in the US - and as long as the continues, its going to be a hard, uphill battle for Sony.

The PS3 is also (relatively) underperforming in Japan - the sales in the next 2-3 months will be crucial.

...

But ultimately Europe is the key - as both MS & Sony know. If MS can pull a couple of pro-Europe software surprises out of the bag, couple this with a solid marketing campaign + price cut (or even new hardware bundle) - anything can happen.

Worldwide sales difference of 10k-15k / week is pretty much insignificant IMO.

If MS can convince gamers that GTA is better on the 360 than the PS3 - that alone will negate this, and pull the balance back towards MS.

What about a 360 bundle (core?) + GTA4 - for $299US?

...

I think the only overtaking we'll be seeing this year - is the Wii overtaking the PSP. Happen going into December I predict. 



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legend92 on 26 January 2008

I think sony would have to lower the ps3 price, advertise alot more to educate the public about what it can do and bring out there big guns plus a few new exclusive games/series.

 

it will surpass sales in pal teritories easly and already has and always will be in front in japan 



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brute on 26 January 2008

if it ever does i say it will do it in 2010



tag:"reviews only matter for the real hardcore gamer"

Baff2 on 19 February 2008

So far this year, PS3 outselling 360 by about 60k/week. Now that Blu-Ray has officially won, that should go up a bit. If it averages 70k/week, then PS3 is on track to pass 360 around the end of 2009. Right now, that is looking very doable.



My prediction (Jan 15th, 2008), total sales by end of 2008: Wii - 35 million X360 - 25 million PS3 - 21 million

CrazzyMan on 19 February 2008

It will be interesting to back to this thread, when ps3 will outsell x360 by the end of this year, or atleast in first part of 2009. =))



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

Domo-Kun on 19 February 2008

Maximum lulz.



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