I have been thinking about this for some time, and I think that within the current market, without too many conditions changing, it will take quite some time.

I give you the following example, MS leads by roughly 7.4 Million units at this time, so Sony somehow has to make this figure up. To do this Sony will have to continuously outsell MS each week. So how much does Sony have to continuously outsell MS?.

Well to come up with my rough estimate, I had to make some broad assumptions ( which obviously could change)

Assumption 1. The sales figures used are Average figures over the total life. ( obviously figures will peak and drop over time)

Assumption 2. I don’t know what MS base sales would be over these periods, so i have used three (3) baselines to compare.

1. 3million sales / year
2. 4million sales/ year
3. 5million sales/ year

So for a condition where MS will average 3 million sales / year over the sales period we would have the following

Even to catch MS by 2011, Sony would have to continuously outsell MS by 161%, and to catch them by the end of 2008, Sony would have to outsell MS by 346%!

For a condition where MS will average 4 million sales / year over the sales period we would have the following

For this condition Sony will have to outsell MS by 146% to catch them by 146%

For a condition where MS will average 5 million sales / year over the sales period we would have the following

Again Sony would have to outsell MS by 137% to catch them by 2011.

Now, since MS has a huge number of resources and cards to play to keep momentum with their system, and since the majority of sales occur later in the consoles life when the price has fallen, It is my belief that best case scenario is that Sony could catch MS by 2012 if at all based on current market trends.

I think in 3 years if it ever does that is.

A loooonnnng time.

Never.

certainly by christmas 2009, if not earlier. Actually I expect much earlier.

Don't see it passing in the near future

DEC 08-FEB 09.

I think your a tad early leo j, I expect more like June 09.

Saying xbox360 only sold 3 million units for 08, and that Sony sells 2M units at christmas 08, then you will need to average well over 164,000 units per week throughout 2008.

Lets see if it will happen. 

Pretty good analysis. Many people just don't realize how much an advantage a head start can be.

Best case scenario (for Sony) - PS3 takes off while 360 bottoms out- has them catching up in 2009 at the earliest. Of course theodds of a best case scenario are slim (and typically equal to a worst case scenario), so 2011 sounds about right to me.

Two extra variables:

1) Because the 360 is already cheaper and has been on the market longer without a significant price cut, they are likely to be able to drop into a mass market price range between 6 -12 months before the PS3. That could give a boost to their sales that will make it that much harder for the PS3 to catch up.

2) However, MS may choose to declare victory and withdraw early, deciding to put out the NeXtBox in 2010 or 2011. If they handle the transition as they did last time, the 360 sales could dry up completely in those years, and let the PS3 shoot past, declaring a technical victory after everyone has stopped caring.