How long until PS3 overtakes the 360 in total sales?

[Sri Lumpa]

CrazzyMan said:
FOR the Unbelievers:
http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=PS2&reg1=All&cons2=PS2&reg2=Total+Other&cons3=PS2&reg3=Japan&start=36891&end=37255

PS3 2008 (2nd year) - PS2 2001(2nd year)
05th January <> 05th January
Total - 269k <> Total - 247k
Others - 125k <> Others - 81k
Japan - 75k <> Japan - 87k

12th January <> 11th January
Total - ??? <> Total - 150k
Others - 58k <> Others - 54k
Japan - ??? <> Japan - 32k

In 2001 were released games like GTA3, GT3, FFX, DMC, MGS2.
Sony sold 16 mln. PS2.

 The PS2 was released in 2000 so if 2008 is the PS3's 2nd year that makes 2001 PS2's 1st year.

So you are saying that the PS3 in its second year is outselling the PS2 in its first year when it was supply constrained and hope to gain valid conclusion from that? 

The reason the PS2 sold so much that year despite that poor start was because it had that poor start due to supply constraint and the demand was higher than that so that when these constraints were removed the sales increased to where demand really was. The games that came out that year helped t osustain and increase that demand but it was there to start with.

The reason the PS3 won't sell as much in 08 as the PS2 in 01 is because while they start similarly, the PS3 is not supply constrained so that is an accurate representation of the current demand and the games comign out this year will act as multipliers for that demand whereas the games in the same series acted as multipliers to a higher initial demand on the PS2.

 Also, because some of those games (DM4 but especially GTA4) are multiplatform with the PS3 it means that the multiplier will be smaller than it was last gen so you get a smaller multiplier for those games applied to a smaller demand. Another multiplier that will either not happen or be smaller on the PS3 is the PS2 price cut to $200. While hte PS3 might have another price cut this year it would most likely be to $300 and would thus have less effect than the PS2 cut to $200 as $300 still isn't a mass market price.

So you start with a console having a smaller initial demand than the PS2, apply to that demand smaller multipliers due to non-exclusivity/lackluster-price-drop and you expect it to sell as well as the PS2?

I guess ___O_o______ was right about you getting flamed, but you sure as hell asked for it:

 

For a more valid comparison here is the PS2 in early 2002, its second full year, against the PS3 in beginning 2008, its second full year: 

 PS3 2008 (2nd year) - PS2 2002(2nd year)
06th January 08 <> 06th January 02
Total - 275k <> Total - 598k
Others - 138k <> Total Others - 146k
Japan - 68k <> Japan - 346k

13th January 08 <> 13th January 02
Total - 146 <> Total - 320k
Others - 62k <> Total Others - 103k
Japan - 34k <> Japan - 126k

All of a sudden, when you use valid comparisons things don't look so good for the PS3.