Using Mario 64DS as an example of how Super Mario 3D Land will perform is terribly inaccurate.  You are comparing what is essentially a port of a then 8 year old game that controlled horribly to a brand new Mario game that is tailor-made for the hardware it's on.  While it won't move systems anywhere near what a 2D Mario will, it'll do far more for the 3DS than Mario 64DS did for the DS.

Your point citing the history of DS and PSP doesn't help your argument, either.  The PSP absolutely did indeed start much stronger than DS and just look what happened there.  Furthermore, both systems released almost simultaneously in Japan, with PSP only behind the DS by four months in America.  The 3DS, however, will have a 10 month or more lead over Vita in all regions, and will have a far bigger install base than last gen before Vita's on the market everywhere.  And if you don't think Mario Kart 7 will aid in the 3DS selling in droves this holiday, you're sadly mistaken.  All of this when Nintendo won't even have played the Pokemon or 2D Mario cards yet... so it absolutely does matter.

Finally, Monster Hunter Vita could very well make the system sell remarkably in Japan this holiday if it does release for it by the end of the year, but first, Monster Hunter cannot compete with Pokemon worldwide, and second, Capcom hinted that it would, in all likelihood, come to both platforms eventually anyway.

Nice post, but wow @ bolded.

Actually they are both horrible Mario games so the comparison is quite apt new or old.  If this 3/2d thing was gonna work then MG2 would have propelled Wii sales and sold a ton. It didn't and I'm guessing this one wont either. I would go as far as to say this Mario is worse than previous ones.  It does a bad job at doing 2d or 3d Mario in this bastardization.

Uh... I just can't take this response seriously.  You do realize the game isn't out yet, right?  Yet you practically have your own review of it.  And by the way, most companies would kill to have their games sell as well as Galaxy did.

Actually it does.  It shows that with even software not considered as massive as 2D mario or Pokemon that Nintendo systems can be bested in sales when they aren't making the right software despite large discrepencies in price. I say they aren't producing the right software now and for the forseeable future given what they have announced in development. If they thought their software alone was sufficient we wouldn't see this gigantic price cut so early in the systems life.

No, it really doesn't.  How does anything you say here refute my previous statement?  What you said was, "Having good software sales right out of the gate is really what matters".  The DS didn't have this, yet is now the best selling game system of all time.  The PSP started much stronger, yet the DS far outsold it.  Of course the right software matters, but the price drop was also about making the system more affordable to consumers, plain and simple.  If all of the software now and for the foreseeable future was bad, Zelda OoT 3D wouldn't have already sold over 1m units and the recent 3DS sales surge due to the price cut wouldn't have occurred at all.

Even if MK7 helps triple or quadrouple 3DS install base this christmas(which I highly doubt it will as that would would  mean they actually meet their fiscal year estimates) it really wont matter if 3rd party software isn't selling.  3rd parties are always looking for excuses to stop developing on Nintendo hardware.  We know for a fact Nintendo can't support the co nsole all on it's own.  It's why they have bent over backwards trying to get them on board and it's still not working because of tepid software sales.

Here I will agree that many 3rd parties are very anti-Nintendo, but conversely, others (such as Ubisoft) are quite the opposite.  The simple fact remains that if the installed base is there, most 3rd parties will support the system, and by the end of the year the 3DS will have a very nice head start over Vita in addition to a cheaper price.  And as far as Nintendo not being able to support a system by themselves, the Wii and the DS both reached their record numbers because of Nintendo's first party software, not 3rd parties.

They do still have all  the current blockbuster franchises on board(CoD, Madden, Assassins Creed etc).  Vita versions will be better than PS3 versions to boot this time with things like cross game voice chat etc.

Many people view the console experience as the defining versions of games like COD, Assassin's Creed, Uncharted or Bioshock.  They take full advantage of the big screen experience.  I'm not going to critique the Vita versions of these games as you did with your premature synopsis of Mario 3D Land; they could very well be the best versions of those games yet.  But to declare COD or Assassin's Creed Vita as being the better versions over the PS3 simply because of cross game voice chat is, again, very short sighted.

I don't expect you to. There are about 30-40 million people who will feel that way. Nintendo doesn't take them seriously either lol. It's what they have come to expect.

I don't think that anyone should take critiques of games by people who haven't even played them seriously, and I'm sure that Nintendo and the vast majority of people don't either.  Lol.

It's not my fault Nintendo hardly has any friends in the industry.

?  Did I say it was?

Maybe one or two in the west.  They need to make sales themselves.  If after 4 attempts of trying to force this thing upon the market why not simply start giving them what they want. Why lose customers? It would be like Activision abandoning CoD before it ever went close to bust to pursue something stupid that costs more.  

If it had enough and good software the 3DS wouldn't have needed a price cut. You can bring up OoT selling a million all you want.  Nobody in the industry cares about Nintendo's humoungous sales except Nintendo. Western devs abandoned the Wii and the DS even though they had a great install base.  This is really about 3rd party software sales.

I will concede to the fact that this thread is about 3rd parties.  However, I was responding to your theory that it's strong games out of the gate that really matters.  It sure helps, but I never said that the 3DS has a plethora of AAA market friendly games... quite the opposite, in fact, which is why I proved you wrong by citing the DS.  And the price drop was a smart move, period.  The system was a full $100 more than the DS was at launch, in a market where smart phones have moved in on the market, and should not have been priced that high to begin with, quality software or not.  And considering the low current install base and limited software available, having two games in the top 5 WW this last week (one of which is a remake of a 13 year old game) is pretty impressive for something that is stupid and costs more.  Lol.

When western games ceased both handhelds suffered a decline in  software sales. The PSP won in the beginning and the software market fell out.  They left DS and software sales weren't sufficient so Nintendo decides to move on to 3DS. Because 3rd parties continually bet on the other horse first 3DS is in a software drought until they see if Vitas software market sticks.  If it is successful I don't expect them to abandon.  E3 and indie support in addition to the great volume of it lead me to believe they might stick around.  This of course leads Nintendo to a gamecube level of support and a refusal to serve many of it's fans to help bear the burden.

Perhaps you should go back and read my previous posts before responding, as you seem to be under the impression that I said the PSV was destined to have its 3rd party support revoked.  What I in fact said was that if the PSV struggles to gain sales and the 3DS does prevail, it's only natural for 3rd parties to go where the install base is.  And while it's still a possibility that those 3rd parties may not jump on 3DS, I hardly think they'd continue supporting the PSV if it proves to be a sinking ship.  And before you respond, mind that I said "IF".  I for one am very much looking forward to the Vita being a success, in addition to the 3DS.

Luckily cross game voice chat is only one of the things that will make the games better.  Xbox's domination of America has a lot to do with LIVE and I think that level of connectivity will be surpassed.  It does a lot towards keeping software market active both retail and digital.

Making games better is great.  Again, what you said is that the Vita versions will prevail as the superior ones to the PS3 versions, which remains to be seen.  Personally, the fact that Uncharted can be done so well on the Vita excites me more than actually playing it does, whereas I'm more excited for Uncharted 3 than anything else this year.  And we'll see if Vita Madden or COD become the victor sales-wise over their console counterparts.

I have some questions now...

If the 3DS struggled so mightily at selling with a $250 price point, what makes people think Vita will suddenly avoid that problem with an SKU that is the same price and an SKU that is even more expensive?

Say the multimedia features of the Vita are superb; what software will sell the Vita outside of Monster Hunter in Japan? All we have to go by is history, and for the PSP, Capcom, Konami, & Square Enix bore the brunt of PSP support. As it stands right now, is either company in a position to repeat that success?

These are the questions...that test a man's soul.......

You need to examine reactions to price annoucments:

3DS at 250 made a really bad impression on potential customers and you could find a lot of criticism about it on gaming portals and forums

When PSV price was annouced people were suprised it's so cheap and you will hardly find anyone disagreeing with it.