I think it's pretty likely it will get to 400M in the US :S. Almost 170 million in the first few days so there's only 230 million remaining. What do you reckon it'll sell in its second weekend? About 60-70 million?

Hopefully I can interject a moderate argument about HPDH2 vs. TDKR:

Put me in the camp of "TDKR will sell much better than TDK......But still won't outsell HPDH2".

Although the market has grown considerably since 2008 (due in part to markets like South Korea and China doing better, the other part being the dollar's value sucks), I don't believe the growth will be enough to beat out HPDH2. Unless it has an epic fail after its launch, its likely to see between 1.2b and 1.5b in revenues (and likely on the higher end of that number, honestly).

Comparatively, TDKR has a tall order in America, but a great path overseas. I don't see how TDKR can beat out TDK for US box office numbers....The run of TDK was nothing short of spectacular in my country, and having a $500m grossing movie is in such exclusive company, that I don't even think TDKR can offer a repeat - but I do expect it to hit somewhere around $450m (remember TDK's drops? I do. Many sub-50% weeks which was unheard of for a movie that broke the OW record by a landslide).

Overseas, there will be a lot of growth, but no 3D will kill it, which is boosting sales of sub-par movies to astronomical levels. I'd argue that Batman can't get enough exposure/play because he's a very iconic American hero. The growth from Batman Begins ($167m OS) to The Dark Knight ($468m) shows that overseas markets can adopt a character that is about as American as Captian America. Another comparison would be to throw in Inception - it was more than $200 million off from TDK, yet still beat it OS - very telling for the future of The Dark Knight Rises.

None of this precludes the argument that TDKR will be the best movie in years......Well, since Inception, really. Chris Nolan is a director that we may never see for decades. He's by far the best director of this generation in terms of width and breadth (with Peter Jackson being my pick for #2), and I anticipate this movie to garner reviews similar to TDK and Inception - that is, top 10 of all time.

So I'll call:

Harry Potter & The Deathly Hallows: Pt 2: $400m US, $950m OS ($1.35b WW)

The Dark Knight Rises: $450m US (Re-takes OW record from HPDH2 in the US), $750m OS ($1.2b WW)

Unlikely.

I will concede that there is the possibility that Potter doesn't hit 400m US (actuals are out and it adjusted UP to $169.2m FYI), but remember, this *is* a summer Potter in TDK's timeslot, which is a very good time to release (last one grossed $300m which was higher than Deathly Hallows Pt. 1). Furthermore, there is no reason - no reason at ALL - to assume OS would droop as low as $850m. Remember: POTC: OST grossed a whopping $791m in its slot thus far, and only $237m in the US. Again, there is NO reason that DH2 can't destroy that number by at leat $100m. Furthermore, its breaking all known records on its release. Its not like we're needing to speculate: Deathly Hallows Pt. 2 is already at ~$480 million USD. By your numbers, its only going to have a 2.5x multiplier which is unheard of from a movie that is heavily OS-based like Potter is (where ~70% of its revenue is typically overseas). Look at the data: 60% or greater of HPDH2's revenues are from 3D venues, which have always had great legs overseas.

I don't really view TDKR as being a finalie. Its a cash cow, and unless Nolan kills of Batman, there will likely be many sequels ahead. Again, my argument comes from a simple standpoint of history: Only 3 movies, ever, have hit $500m in the US. Ever. I don't believe another sequel will make that list. TDKR will get close, but I don't think it will.

Unlikely.

I will concede that there is the possibility that Potter doesn't hit 400m US (actuals are out and it adjusted UP to $169.2m FYI), but remember, this *is* a summer Potter in TDK's timeslot, which is a very good time to release (last one grossed $300m which was higher than Deathly Hallows Pt. 1). Furthermore, there is no reason - no reason at ALL - to assume OS would droop as low as $850m. Remember: POTC: OST grossed a whopping $791m in its slot thus far, and only $237m in the US. Again, there is NO reason that DH2 can't destroy that number by at leat $100m. Furthermore, its breaking all known records on its release. Its not like we're needing to speculate: Deathly Hallows Pt. 2 is already at ~$480 million USD. By your numbers, its only going to have a 2.5x multiplier which is unheard of from a movie that is heavily OS-based like Potter is (where ~70% of its revenue is typically overseas). Look at the data: 60% or greater of HPDH2's revenues are from 3D venues, which have always had great legs overseas.

I don't really view TDKR as being a finalie. Its a cash cow, and unless Nolan kills of Batman, there will likely be many sequels ahead. Again, my argument comes from a simple standpoint of history: Only 3 movies, ever, have hit $500m in the US. Ever. I don't believe another sequel will make that list. TDKR will get close, but I don't think it will.

Question: isn't the lack of popularity of Batman outside the US (which can be extended to just about any super hero actually) due more to the fact that super hero comics (the mediu that made these heroes so iconic in the States) were never really very popular outside the US?

If New Moon can get a 2.1x multiplier in November, then DH2 can certainly get that in the summer. I figured a 2.35x multiplier is reasonable.

New Moon wasn't the end of the saga,and it didn't have a TDKR teaser.People didn't rush to see it,only teenage girls.

DH2 will be called the most frontloaded movie in history,after we'll see some 2 more weekends.

That would be my assumption.

But marketing still has a wonderful way of translating some of our crazy comic book and cartoon characters overseas. I mean, Transformers >1 billion? Really? It's a freakin' toy by Hasbro!