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Forums - Movies Discussion - Weekend Estimates: Deathly Hallows Sets All-Time Record In US ($168.55) & Worldwide ($475.55)

sapphi_snake said:
mrstickball said:

Hopefully I can interject a moderate argument about HPDH2 vs. TDKR:

Put me in the camp of "TDKR will sell much better than TDK......But still won't outsell HPDH2".

Although the market has grown considerably since 2008 (due in part to markets like South Korea and China doing better, the other part being the dollar's value sucks), I don't believe the growth will be enough to beat out HPDH2. Unless it has an epic fail after its launch, its likely to see between 1.2b and 1.5b in revenues (and likely on the higher end of that number, honestly).

Comparatively, TDKR has a tall order in America, but a great path overseas. I don't see how TDKR can beat out TDK for US box office numbers....The run of TDK was nothing short of spectacular in my country, and having a $500m grossing movie is in such exclusive company, that I don't even think TDKR can offer a repeat - but I do expect it to hit somewhere around $450m (remember TDK's drops? I do. Many sub-50% weeks which was unheard of for a movie that broke the OW record by a landslide).

Overseas, there will be a lot of growth, but no 3D will kill it, which is boosting sales of sub-par movies to astronomical levels. I'd argue that Batman can't get enough exposure/play because he's a very iconic American hero. The growth from Batman Begins ($167m OS) to The Dark Knight ($468m) shows that overseas markets can adopt a character that is about as American as Captian America. Another comparison would be to throw in Inception - it was more than $200 million off from TDK, yet still beat it OS - very telling for the future of The Dark Knight Rises.

None of this precludes the argument that TDKR will be the best movie in years......Well, since Inception, really. Chris Nolan is a director that we may never see for decades. He's by far the best director of this generation in terms of width and breadth (with Peter Jackson being my pick for #2), and I anticipate this movie to garner reviews similar to TDK and Inception - that is, top 10 of all time.

So I'll call:

Harry Potter & The Deathly Hallows: Pt 2: $400m US, $950m OS ($1.35b WW)

The Dark Knight Rises: $450m US (Re-takes OW record from HPDH2 in the US), $750m OS ($1.2b WW)

Question: isn't the lack of popularity of Batman outside the US (which can be extended to just about any super hero actually) due more to the fact that super hero comics (the mediu that made these heroes so iconic in the States) were never really very popular outside the US?


That would be my assumption.

But marketing still has a wonderful way of translating some of our crazy comic book and cartoon characters overseas. I mean, Transformers >1 billion? Really? It's a freakin' toy by Hasbro!



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

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mrstickball said:
darthdevidem01 said:
lol @400m in US aint happening

the drops for this film will be massive.

If New Moon can get a 2.1x multiplier in November, then DH2 can certainly get that in the summer. I figured a 2.35x multiplier is reasonable.

New Moon wasn't the end of the saga,and it didn't have a TDKR teaser.People didn't rush to see it,only teenage girls.

DH2 will be called the most frontloaded movie in history,after we'll see some 2 more weekends.



Mordred11 said:
mrstickball said:
darthdevidem01 said:
lol @400m in US aint happening

the drops for this film will be massive.

If New Moon can get a 2.1x multiplier in November, then DH2 can certainly get that in the summer. I figured a 2.35x multiplier is reasonable.

New Moon wasn't the end of the saga,and it didn't have a TDKR teaser.People didn't rush to see it,only teenage girls.

DH2 will be called the most frontloaded movie in history,after we'll see some 2 more weekends.



Spider-Man 3...can't be more frontloaded than that.

All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

mrstickball said:
sapphi_snake said:
mrstickball said:

Hopefully I can interject a moderate argument about HPDH2 vs. TDKR:

Put me in the camp of "TDKR will sell much better than TDK......But still won't outsell HPDH2".

Although the market has grown considerably since 2008 (due in part to markets like South Korea and China doing better, the other part being the dollar's value sucks), I don't believe the growth will be enough to beat out HPDH2. Unless it has an epic fail after its launch, its likely to see between 1.2b and 1.5b in revenues (and likely on the higher end of that number, honestly).

Comparatively, TDKR has a tall order in America, but a great path overseas. I don't see how TDKR can beat out TDK for US box office numbers....The run of TDK was nothing short of spectacular in my country, and having a $500m grossing movie is in such exclusive company, that I don't even think TDKR can offer a repeat - but I do expect it to hit somewhere around $450m (remember TDK's drops? I do. Many sub-50% weeks which was unheard of for a movie that broke the OW record by a landslide).

Overseas, there will be a lot of growth, but no 3D will kill it, which is boosting sales of sub-par movies to astronomical levels. I'd argue that Batman can't get enough exposure/play because he's a very iconic American hero. The growth from Batman Begins ($167m OS) to The Dark Knight ($468m) shows that overseas markets can adopt a character that is about as American as Captian America. Another comparison would be to throw in Inception - it was more than $200 million off from TDK, yet still beat it OS - very telling for the future of The Dark Knight Rises.

None of this precludes the argument that TDKR will be the best movie in years......Well, since Inception, really. Chris Nolan is a director that we may never see for decades. He's by far the best director of this generation in terms of width and breadth (with Peter Jackson being my pick for #2), and I anticipate this movie to garner reviews similar to TDK and Inception - that is, top 10 of all time.

So I'll call:

Harry Potter & The Deathly Hallows: Pt 2: $400m US, $950m OS ($1.35b WW)

The Dark Knight Rises: $450m US (Re-takes OW record from HPDH2 in the US), $750m OS ($1.2b WW)

Question: isn't the lack of popularity of Batman outside the US (which can be extended to just about any super hero actually) due more to the fact that super hero comics (the mediu that made these heroes so iconic in the States) were never really very popular outside the US?


That would be my assumption.

But marketing still has a wonderful way of translating some of our crazy comic book and cartoon characters overseas. I mean, Transformers >1 billion? Really? It's a freakin' toy by Hasbro!

Precisely. I don't know about other places in Europe, but Transformers was very popular here when I was a kid (cartoons, toys etc.). Much more popular than Batman, or any super hero.



"I don't understand how someone could like Tolstoy and Dostoyevsky, but not like Twilight!!!"

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                                                                               (The Voice of a Generation and Seece)

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                                                                               (pizzahut451)

darthdevidem01 said:
Mordred11 said:
mrstickball said:
darthdevidem01 said:
lol @400m in US aint happening

the drops for this film will be massive.

If New Moon can get a 2.1x multiplier in November, then DH2 can certainly get that in the summer. I figured a 2.35x multiplier is reasonable.

New Moon wasn't the end of the saga,and it didn't have a TDKR teaser.People didn't rush to see it,only teenage girls.

DH2 will be called the most frontloaded movie in history,after we'll see some 2 more weekends.



Spider-Man 3...can't be more frontloaded than that.

Sure it can.It needs to have a bigger drop than 61.5% in it's 2nd weekend



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If it follows the same pattern as Part 1 it will make about 274 million dollars from its first four weekends (excluding the other weekdays).

Harry Potter makes about 75% of it's total gross on weekends so it should be able to sell about 365 million in four weeks, although I think it'll be closer to 350 million by then because of larger drops than Part 1.

The final 50 million should not be that hard to reach since even part 1 got 35 million after its first four weeks.

I think Part 2 will end up with about 390 million in the US.



Mordred11 said:
pezus said:
Mordred11 said:
mrstickball said:

Harry Potter & The Deathly Hallows: Pt 2: $400m US, $950m OS ($1.35b WW)

No way in hell will DH2 reach 400M in US,and 950M OS

Try more like 350M US,850M OS.

As for TDKR,i doubt it's going to decrease that much in the US with the finale factor going for it.It all depends on how WB will market Bane as a villain,if they play their cards right they can make him as liked as Joker was.

I think it's pretty likely it will get to 400M in the US :S. Almost 170 million in the first few days so there's only 230 million remaining. What do you reckon it'll sell in its second weekend? About 60-70 million?

50.5M

No way, even Part 1 did 49.1 million. I think it'll do about 63 million myself.



Mordred11 said:
mrstickball said:
darthdevidem01 said:
lol @400m in US aint happening

the drops for this film will be massive.

If New Moon can get a 2.1x multiplier in November, then DH2 can certainly get that in the summer. I figured a 2.35x multiplier is reasonable.

New Moon wasn't the end of the saga,and it didn't have a TDKR teaser.People didn't rush to see it,only teenage girls.

DH2 will be called the most frontloaded movie in history,after we'll see some 2 more weekends.

Very well. We only need to wait a few weeks to see how right or wrong I am.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

@pezus

your predictions may be as doomed as Snape



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

mrstickball said:
Mordred11 said:
mrstickball said:
darthdevidem01 said:
lol @400m in US aint happening

the drops for this film will be massive.

If New Moon can get a 2.1x multiplier in November, then DH2 can certainly get that in the summer. I figured a 2.35x multiplier is reasonable.

New Moon wasn't the end of the saga,and it didn't have a TDKR teaser.People didn't rush to see it,only teenage girls.

DH2 will be called the most frontloaded movie in history,after we'll see some 2 more weekends.

Very well. We only need to wait a few weeks to see how right or wrong I am.

You will be right! Muahaha