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Forums - Movies & TV - Weekend Estimates: Deathly Hallows Sets All-Time Record In US ($168.55) & Worldwide ($475.55)

Mordred11 on 18 July 2011
sapphi_snake said:
Mordred11 said:
sapphi_snake said:
Cirio said:
That's impressive! But with ticket prices being more expensive and with 3D playing a decent role in sales, it's a no-brainer that this movie beat TDK. Of course, the TDKR will take the crown once again due to prices being higher and 3D. Still, HP is one of the most successful franchise of all time! I went to watch Transformers 3 yesterday and the theater was PACKED with people waiting to watch HP.

It likely won't overall, as HP will beat it outside the US.

By how much?$100M?$150M?Not enough to beat it overall.

Most of the HP movies have outgrossed TDK with almost 200 mlm. each outside of the US. According to Box Office Mojo here's how much The Dark Knight and the Harry Potter films have grossed outside the US:

The Dark Knight $468.6 mln.

Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone $657 mln.

Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets $616.7 mln.

Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban $546.1 mln.

Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire $605.9 mln.

Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix $646.2 mln.

Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince $632 mln.

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 $660 mln.

Source: http://boxofficemojo.com/alltime/world/

Considering the popularity of the franchise, the fact that it's the last part, the amazing reviews, and the fact that it's in 3D, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 will easily become the most successful movie in the franchise, and will probably gross between $800 mln. and $1bln. outside the US (plus, the 3D especially will probably help it reach $400 mln. in the US).It's total world wide gross will end up being between $1.2-1.4 bln.

As for The Dark Knight Rises, it will not outgross HP. First of all, it's not in 3D. Second of all, it won't have the benefit of one of it's stars dying to draw attention to it (hoepfully, I'm sure we don't want anyone dying, do we?). Outside of the US it will probably do similar to what TDK did (either slightly less, or slightly more), which would put it $300 mln. behind HP if my predictions for that movie turn out to be accurate. In order for TDKR to make up for the difference it would need to not only outgross TDK in the US, but gross almost as much as Avatar did in the US, which is a feat unlikely to be pulled off, especially if you don't have 3D (and even then it may not be enough if HP reaches $1 bln. overseas).

You do realize how much the foreign markets have grown since 2008 right?

A very good example is Transformers DOTM,which is on track to pass $650M OS,and yet the previous movie did only $434M.Yes I know that ROTF wasn't in 3D,but that merely accounts for a 10-15% increase.

The Dark Knight did $468M back in 2008,a year before Revenge of the Fallen,with the OS market being weaker.It may not be in 3D but it is being shot in IMAX,which helps a bit.TDKR releases one year from now,god knows how much the foreign markets will grow even further.

Another thing you're forgetting is Inception.A part of it's audience will go see TDKR,because it will be obviously marketed as being made by Inception's director.

You brought up Heath Ledger's death,how can that account for more than a 5-7% increase?(even that is too much).

TDKR has something better than Heath Ledger,much better.The same factor that is helping HP right now,the finale factor.This is the end of Nolan's trilogy,after all.

IMO,Potter will pass $800M,but it will end around $850M.Pirates 4 ended up with $787M,and it opened with $260M,not even $50M less than HP7-2.With 350M DOM,it will get to 1.2B.

Right now,TDKR would do somewhere around $650M-$700M OS,a year from now it will be higher than that for sure.

If it does $550M DOM,but I doubt it will decrease with the finale factor,and $700M OS,it gets 1.2B-1.3B.All my bets are on Batman.



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kopstudent89 on 18 July 2011

Awesome stuff for HP.. thoughg huge Satrday/Sunday drops. Expected nonetheless



sapphi_snake on 18 July 2011
Mordred11 said:

You do realise how much the foreign markets have grown since 2008 right?

A very good example is Transformers DOTM,which is on track to pass $650M OS,and yet the previous movie did only $434M.Yes I know that ROTF wasn't in 3D,but that merely accounts for a 10-15% increase.

The Dark Knight did $468M back in 2008,a year before Revenge of the Fallen,with the OS market being weaker.It may not be in 3D but it is being shot in IMAX,which helps a bit.TDKR releases one year from now,god knows how much the foreign markets will grow even further.

Another thing you're forgetting is Inception.A part of it's audience will go see TDKR,because it will be obviously marketed as being made by Inception's director.

You brought up Heath Ledger's death,how can that account for more than a 5-7% increase?(even that is too much).

TDKR has something better than Heath Ledger,much better.The same factor that is helping HP right now,the finale factor.This is the end of Nolan's trilogy,after all.

IMO,Potter will pass $800M,but it will end around $850M.Pirates 4 ended up with $787M,and it opened with $260M,not even $50M less than HP7-2.With 350M DOM,it will get to 1.2B.

Right now,TDKR would do somewhere around $650M-$700M OS,a year from now it will be higher than that for sure.

If it does $550M DOM,but I doubt it will decrease with the finale factor,and $700M OS,it gets 1.3B-1.4B.

The reason why TDK grossed so "little" in foreign markets wasn't because those markets weren't big enough, but because Batman has never been popular outside the US. TDK did "poorly" comapred to other big blockbusters (both released before it, and even in the same year) in foreign markets. All you have to do is check out Box Office Mojo's chartes, and you'll see that even movies as old as Jurassic Park did better. So what if Nolan directed Inception? TDKR isn't Inception, it's a Batman movie. There's no way TDKR will gross $700 mln. outside of the US (and I don'teven think it will top the first one in the US either), and I'll be happy to tell you "I told you so" this time next year.

As fot the finale factor, it's much stronger for HP, a series based on books which people nowadays have grown up with, and is the most successful movie franchise ever. This is also the end of the series, while TDKR is just the last Batman movie Nolan is directing (heck, up 'till you just mentioned it now, I wasn't even thinking of TDKR as a "finale", and I'm sure many others won't either). There will be other Batman movies released in the future, which will lessen the "finale effect" for the TDKR.



"I don't understand how someone could like Tolstoy and Dostoyevsky, but not like Twilight!!!"

"Last book I read was Brokeback Mountain, I just don't have the patience for them unless it's softcore porn."

                                                                               (The Voice of a Generation and Seece)

"If you cant stand the sound of your own voice than dont become a singer !!!!!"

                                                                               (pizzahut451)

Mordred11 on 18 July 2011
sapphi_snake said:
Mordred11 said:

You do realise how much the foreign markets have grown since 2008 right?

A very good example is Transformers DOTM,which is on track to pass $650M OS,and yet the previous movie did only $434M.Yes I know that ROTF wasn't in 3D,but that merely accounts for a 10-15% increase.

The Dark Knight did $468M back in 2008,a year before Revenge of the Fallen,with the OS market being weaker.It may not be in 3D but it is being shot in IMAX,which helps a bit.TDKR releases one year from now,god knows how much the foreign markets will grow even further.

Another thing you're forgetting is Inception.A part of it's audience will go see TDKR,because it will be obviously marketed as being made by Inception's director.

You brought up Heath Ledger's death,how can that account for more than a 5-7% increase?(even that is too much).

TDKR has something better than Heath Ledger,much better.The same factor that is helping HP right now,the finale factor.This is the end of Nolan's trilogy,after all.

IMO,Potter will pass $800M,but it will end around $850M.Pirates 4 ended up with $787M,and it opened with $260M,not even $50M less than HP7-2.With 350M DOM,it will get to 1.2B.

Right now,TDKR would do somewhere around $650M-$700M OS,a year from now it will be higher than that for sure.

If it does $550M DOM,but I doubt it will decrease with the finale factor,and $700M OS,it gets 1.3B-1.4B.

The reason why TDK grossed so "little" in foreign markets wasn't because those markets weren't big enough, but because Batman has never been popular outside the US. TDK did "poorly" comapred to other big blockbusters (both released before it, and even in the same year) in foreign markets. All you have to do is check out Box Office Mojo's chartes, and you'll see that even movies as old as Jurassic Park did better. So what if Nolan directed Inception? TDKR isn't Inception, it's a Batman movie. There's no way TDKR will gross $700 mln. outside of the US (and I don'teven think it will top the first one in the US either), and I'll be happy to tell you "I told you so" this time next year.

As fot the finale factor, it's much stronger for HP, a series based on books which people nowadays have grown up with, and is the most successful movie franchise ever. This is also the end of the series, while TDKR is just the last Batman movie Nolan is directing (heck, up 'till you just mentioned it now, I wasn't even thinking of TDKR as a "finale", and I'm sure many others won't either). There will be other Batman movies released in the future, which will lessen the "finale effect" for the TDKR.

Haha,that's right.And that's why TDKR will do amazing numbers OS next year,foreign markets have just discovered Batman.Batman Begins did a poor $167M,and then TKD almost TRIPLED that,shows how much interest has grown over 3 years.

4 years after TDK,TDKR should at least increase $200M-$250M OS.

TDKR will be marketed as the last movie in the trilogy,and thats what counts for the casual crowd.Guys like you and me know that there are going to be more Batman movies,but it won't be anytime soon.

I would bet a damn finger that TDKR beats HP7-2.Damn freaking wizard



Moren on 18 July 2011

-Harry Potter to The Dark Knight: Avada Kedabra!!!
-**The Dark Knight gets hit and falls of a cliff**
-**Harry Potter celebrates**
-**The Dark Knight Rises**
-**Harry Potter looks how the Dark Knight Rises**
-**Hermione leaves Harry and goes to kiss Bruce**



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sapphi_snake on 18 July 2011
Mordred11 said:

Haha,that's right.And that's why TDKR will do amazing numbers OS next year,foreign markets have just discovered Batman.Batman Begins did a poor $167M,and then TKD almost TRIPLED that,shows how much interest has grown over 3 years.

4 years after TDK,TDKR should at least increase $200M-$250M OS.

TDKR will be marketed as the last movie in the trilogy,and thats what counts for the casual crowd.Guys like you and me know that there are going to be more Batman movies,but it won't be anytime soon.

I would bet a damn finger that TDKR beats HP7-2.Damn freaking wizard

Ha, I'll be waiting for expecting your finger in the mail next year.



"I don't understand how someone could like Tolstoy and Dostoyevsky, but not like Twilight!!!"

"Last book I read was Brokeback Mountain, I just don't have the patience for them unless it's softcore porn."

                                                                               (The Voice of a Generation and Seece)

"If you cant stand the sound of your own voice than dont become a singer !!!!!"

                                                                               (pizzahut451)

darthdevidem01 on 18 July 2011

TDKR won't do as well as TDK in America because The Joker isn't there, the most iconic villain is gone.

Of course its Nolan so I expect a good film but I think it won't do as well

Overseas it will do better than TDK due to box office expansion thats taken place, however as its not in 3D I don't expect massive numbers either.

DH2 will go beyond 1.2 Million, falling short of ROTK's 1.3 Million

ROTK's box office performance hardly ever gets mentioned but its tremendous really, since 2003 its held onto 2nd and then 3rd place at the worldwide box office.



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

darthdevidem01 on 18 July 2011
pezus said:
darthdevidem01 said:
TDKR won't do as well as TDK in America because The Joker isn't there, the most iconic villain is gone.

Of course its Nolan so I expect a good film but I think it won't do as well

Overseas it will do better than TDK due to box office expansion thats taken place, however as its not in 3D I don't expect massive numbers either.

DH2 will go beyond 1.2 Million, falling short of ROTK's 1.3 Million

ROTK's box office performance hardly ever gets mentioned but its tremendous really, since 2003 its held onto 2nd and then 3rd place at the worldwide box office.

According to wikipedia: 

3 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King $1,119,110,941 2003

Where do you see the 1.3 billion number?



Well I said "million" not "billion" so I could've been talking about Sweden Box office ROTK totals for all you know!!!!!!! Anyway I dunno why I thought it was 1.3 Million, I think I read that number to be the adjusted gross n it got into my mind.

All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

sapphi_snake on 18 July 2011
darthdevidem01 said:
pezus said:
darthdevidem01 said:
TDKR won't do as well as TDK in America because The Joker isn't there, the most iconic villain is gone.

Of course its Nolan so I expect a good film but I think it won't do as well

Overseas it will do better than TDK due to box office expansion thats taken place, however as its not in 3D I don't expect massive numbers either.

DH2 will go beyond 1.2 Million, falling short of ROTK's 1.3 Million

ROTK's box office performance hardly ever gets mentioned but its tremendous really, since 2003 its held onto 2nd and then 3rd place at the worldwide box office.

According to wikipedia: 

3 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King $1,119,110,941 2003

Where do you see the 1.3 billion number?


Well I said "million" not "billion" so I could've been talking about Sweden Box office ROTK totals for all you know!!!!!!! Anyway I dunno why I thought it was 1.3 Million, I think I read that number to be the adjusted gross n it got into my mind.

Why do you keep saying "million" uinstead of "billion". It's confusing!



"I don't understand how someone could like Tolstoy and Dostoyevsky, but not like Twilight!!!"

"Last book I read was Brokeback Mountain, I just don't have the patience for them unless it's softcore porn."

                                                                               (The Voice of a Generation and Seece)

"If you cant stand the sound of your own voice than dont become a singer !!!!!"

                                                                               (pizzahut451)

mrstickball on 18 July 2011

Hopefully I can interject a moderate argument about HPDH2 vs. TDKR:

Put me in the camp of "TDKR will sell much better than TDK......But still won't outsell HPDH2".

Although the market has grown considerably since 2008 (due in part to markets like South Korea and China doing better, the other part being the dollar's value sucks), I don't believe the growth will be enough to beat out HPDH2. Unless it has an epic fail after its launch, its likely to see between 1.2b and 1.5b in revenues (and likely on the higher end of that number, honestly).

Comparatively, TDKR has a tall order in America, but a great path overseas. I don't see how TDKR can beat out TDK for US box office numbers....The run of TDK was nothing short of spectacular in my country, and having a $500m grossing movie is in such exclusive company, that I don't even think TDKR can offer a repeat - but I do expect it to hit somewhere around $450m (remember TDK's drops? I do. Many sub-50% weeks which was unheard of for a movie that broke the OW record by a landslide).

Overseas, there will be a lot of growth, but no 3D will kill it, which is boosting sales of sub-par movies to astronomical levels. I'd argue that Batman can't get enough exposure/play because he's a very iconic American hero. The growth from Batman Begins ($167m OS) to The Dark Knight ($468m) shows that overseas markets can adopt a character that is about as American as Captian America. Another comparison would be to throw in Inception - it was more than $200 million off from TDK, yet still beat it OS - very telling for the future of The Dark Knight Rises.

None of this precludes the argument that TDKR will be the best movie in years......Well, since Inception, really. Chris Nolan is a director that we may never see for decades. He's by far the best director of this generation in terms of width and breadth (with Peter Jackson being my pick for #2), and I anticipate this movie to garner reviews similar to TDK and Inception - that is, top 10 of all time.

So I'll call:

Harry Potter & The Deathly Hallows: Pt 2: $400m US, $950m OS ($1.35b WW)

The Dark Knight Rises: $450m US (Re-takes OW record from HPDH2 in the US), $750m OS ($1.2b WW)



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.