Weekend Estimates: Deathly Hallows Sets All-Time Record In US ($168.55) & Worldwide ($475.55)

[sapphi_snake]

Mordred11 said:

You do realise how much the foreign markets have grown since 2008 right?

A very good example is Transformers DOTM,which is on track to pass $650M OS,and yet the previous movie did only $434M.Yes I know that ROTF wasn't in 3D,but that merely accounts for a 10-15% increase.

The Dark Knight did $468M back in 2008,a year before Revenge of the Fallen,with the OS market being weaker.It may not be in 3D but it is being shot in IMAX,which helps a bit.TDKR releases one year from now,god knows how much the foreign markets will grow even further.

Another thing you're forgetting is Inception.A part of it's audience will go see TDKR,because it will be obviously marketed as being made by Inception's director.

You brought up Heath Ledger's death,how can that account for more than a 5-7% increase?(even that is too much).

TDKR has something better than Heath Ledger,much better.The same factor that is helping HP right now,the finale factor.This is the end of Nolan's trilogy,after all.

IMO,Potter will pass $800M,but it will end around $850M.Pirates 4 ended up with $787M,and it opened with $260M,not even $50M less than HP7-2.With 350M DOM,it will get to 1.2B.

Right now,TDKR would do somewhere around $650M-$700M OS,a year from now it will be higher than that for sure.

If it does $550M DOM,but I doubt it will decrease with the finale factor,and $700M OS,it gets 1.3B-1.4B.

The reason why TDK grossed so "little" in foreign markets wasn't because those markets weren't big enough, but because Batman has never been popular outside the US. TDK did "poorly" comapred to other big blockbusters (both released before it, and even in the same year) in foreign markets. All you have to do is check out Box Office Mojo's chartes, and you'll see that even movies as old as Jurassic Park did better. So what if Nolan directed Inception? TDKR isn't Inception, it's a Batman movie. There's no way TDKR will gross $700 mln. outside of the US (and I don'teven think it will top the first one in the US either), and I'll be happy to tell you "I told you so" this time next year.

As fot the finale factor, it's much stronger for HP, a series based on books which people nowadays have grown up with, and is the most successful movie franchise ever. This is also the end of the series, while TDKR is just the last Batman movie Nolan is directing (heck, up 'till you just mentioned it now, I wasn't even thinking of TDKR as a "finale", and I'm sure many others won't either). There will be other Batman movies released in the future, which will lessen the "finale effect" for the TDKR.