mrstickball said:
Hopefully I can interject a moderate argument about HPDH2 vs. TDKR:
Put me in the camp of "TDKR will sell much better than TDK......But still won't outsell HPDH2".
Although the market has grown considerably since 2008 (due in part to markets like South Korea and China doing better, the other part being the dollar's value sucks), I don't believe the growth will be enough to beat out HPDH2. Unless it has an epic fail after its launch, its likely to see between 1.2b and 1.5b in revenues (and likely on the higher end of that number, honestly).
Comparatively, TDKR has a tall order in America, but a great path overseas. I don't see how TDKR can beat out TDK for US box office numbers....The run of TDK was nothing short of spectacular in my country, and having a $500m grossing movie is in such exclusive company, that I don't even think TDKR can offer a repeat - but I do expect it to hit somewhere around $450m (remember TDK's drops? I do. Many sub-50% weeks which was unheard of for a movie that broke the OW record by a landslide).
Overseas, there will be a lot of growth, but no 3D will kill it, which is boosting sales of sub-par movies to astronomical levels. I'd argue that Batman can't get enough exposure/play because he's a very iconic American hero. The growth from Batman Begins ($167m OS) to The Dark Knight ($468m) shows that overseas markets can adopt a character that is about as American as Captian America. Another comparison would be to throw in Inception - it was more than $200 million off from TDK, yet still beat it OS - very telling for the future of The Dark Knight Rises.
None of this precludes the argument that TDKR will be the best movie in years......Well, since Inception, really. Chris Nolan is a director that we may never see for decades. He's by far the best director of this generation in terms of width and breadth (with Peter Jackson being my pick for #2), and I anticipate this movie to garner reviews similar to TDK and Inception - that is, top 10 of all time.
So I'll call:
Harry Potter & The Deathly Hallows: Pt 2: $400m US, $950m OS ($1.35b WW)
The Dark Knight Rises: $450m US (Re-takes OW record from HPDH2 in the US), $750m OS ($1.2b WW)
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