mrstickball said:
I will concede that there is the possibility that Potter doesn't hit 400m US (actuals are out and it adjusted UP to $169.2m FYI), but remember, this *is* a summer Potter in TDK's timeslot, which is a very good time to release (last one grossed $300m which was higher than Deathly Hallows Pt. 1). Furthermore, there is no reason - no reason at ALL - to assume OS would droop as low as $850m. Remember: POTC: OST grossed a whopping $791m in its slot thus far, and only $237m in the US. Again, there is NO reason that DH2 can't destroy that number by at leat $100m. Furthermore, its breaking all known records on its release. Its not like we're needing to speculate: Deathly Hallows Pt. 2 is already at ~$480 million USD. By your numbers, its only going to have a 2.5x multiplier which is unheard of from a movie that is heavily OS-based like Potter is (where ~70% of its revenue is typically overseas). Look at the data: 60% or greater of HPDH2's revenues are from 3D venues, which have always had great legs overseas. I don't really view TDKR as being a finalie. Its a cash cow, and unless Nolan kills of Batman, there will likely be many sequels ahead. Again, my argument comes from a simple standpoint of history: Only 3 movies, ever, have hit $500m in the US. Ever. I don't believe another sequel will make that list. TDKR will get close, but I don't think it will. |
pwndz
You have restored peace and justice to the galaxy, send this message to ships of the anti-potter federation, all anti-potter droids must be disabled...immediately.
