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Forums - Sales - Uncharted 3 Sales Predictions

Hyruken on 12 June 2011

I think a lot deoends on it's reception to be honest. If UC2 did not get the reviews it got then the sales would be more in line with the first one. If UC3 get's just as good reviews then it will do on par with uc2 at least.

So i'd say 5.5m lt and 1m first week.

Now onto this Battlefield thing.....

How on earth can you say Battlefield is not a big seller??

Bad Company 2 sold about 5.5m on PS3&360 and it has only been out a year....

As another poster mentioned they are not even full releases. Battlefield 2 sold about 2.2m in it's first year on sale. And that was on PC. This time around the game will get released on consoles for the first time. Obviously combined sales will be much higher then UC3.
But i will go so far as to bet that Battlefield 3 on PS3 will have a bigger first week then UC3 and will sell more lifetime then UC3 does.

Why do i think that?
Because Battlefield 3 has been getting bigtime exposure in the media due to the EA advertising campaign. The game is miles away but already has tv adverts. It had them on the champions league final!

Add to that it is winning awards all over the place from E3
•IGN.com – Best of E3 2011
•Game Informer – Best of E3 2011
•X-Play – Best of E3 ‘11
•GamePro – Best FPS
•GameSpot.com – Most Anticipated Game of E3 2011
•GamesRadar – Official Selection, E3 2011 Most Valuable Game
•Official Xbox Magazine - Official Selection, E3 2011 Most Valuable Game
•PC Gamer - Official Selection, E3 2011 Most Valuable Game
•Multiplayer.it – Best of E3 2011 Nominee
•GameBlog.fr – B3st of Show Nominee

The hype for the game will be huge. I think it will do at bare minimum CODmw1 numbers on PS3.



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arcane_chaos on 12 June 2011
Jay520 said:
FW: 1.1 million
LT: 5.1 million

Disadvantages for Uncharted 3

Uncharted 2 competed with MW2, AC2, and Batman when it launched.
Uncharted competes with MW3, AC:R, Batman: AA, Battlefield 3 (which will be bigger than BC2) and Skyrim (which will be bigger than Oblivion) when it launches.

It'll probably get a lower meta than U2. I see it getting a 91. No matter how good it is, it will NOT be as ground breaking as U2.

There is a 97% chance that Uncharted 3 will NOT be the GOTY champ this year. GOTY champs are typically New IPs (LittleBigPlanet, RDR), or surprise sequels (Uncharted 2, Mass Effect 2). This usually the rule. A game has to have freshness either by being a new IP, a surprisingly good sequel, or a long awaited sequel like Skyrim (It's beem 5 years right). So yeah, most of the GOTY awards will probably go to Skyrim or LA Noire or something surprising like Deus Ex. I say U3 has a 3 % chance of being the GOTY champ this year.

Because of the lesser GOTY awards, it won't get that boast around Dec/Jan that U2 got.

I also don't think it'll blow us away visually like Uncharted2. It's going to have some hefty competition from Battlefield 3 and Gears of War 3. Even if it does look better than those two games, it won't be anywhere near the discrepancy that Uncharted 2 had with it's nearest visual challenger (what was it? AC2), espescially considering the introduction of color to the Gears of War series. It will be interesting, no doubt.

It will not release near a $100 price cut like U2.

Advantages for Uncharted 3

Multiplayer. U2's mp was good but wasn't the best on ps3. ND said themselves that they ran out of time with mp for U2. They said they're going after COD this time and they've showed some pretty impressive gameplay so far. They're bringing the cinematics from the sp to the mp and adding new modes like 3 - team deathmatch. Also add in customization. You can tell ND has put a lot of work on the mp this time. This is where that 3% for GOTY Comes in.

I've also seen subtle improve like how the crosshairs separate entirely when shooting unlike in U2 when just the outer lines would disperse.

Solid Snake will make an appearance. This could potential attracted a few hundred-thousand MGS fans

Split Screen. It could impact sales a lot like with RE:5, or not like Killzone 3.


With all that said, the game will be great and I'll most likely enjoy it even more than U2.
First Week: A little over a million units
Lifetime: A Little over five-million units


I think split-screen could be having a positive effect on K3, the legs on K3 are looking much better than K2's; Killzone 2 dropped below 20k its 7th week, Killzone 3 is still above the 20k mark on its 15th week(selling 25k). if it keep up it could match Killzone 2 sales in nearly a year.

lol, and didn't you make a "predict uncharted 3 sales" as well?

OT:  I'd say :

1.2 mil FW

5.5-5.8 mil LTD

 



snakefisher on 12 June 2011

Snake in uncharted would be like like master chief in gears of war its just not going to happen.But i do agree with jay on the fact that uncharted is going up against a hell of a lot of quality opposition this year



Jay520 on 12 June 2011

@arcane_chaos

Yeah, the legs are pretty good, but I think it's because of the improved controls. I could be wrong though, we have no way of knowing for sure why the legs are so good

Yeah, I did make a thread... In fact, I think 9037 posted in it... Hmmm..

@9037

So you make a duplicate thread so that mine will be forever forgotten, huh? When you knew I made one. Don't play stupid, I know you knew. And you didn't even ask me? And you made it look so legit; you even convinced me to post in it and forget the one that I created.... Bravo, bravo

of course you realize .... This means war



JustThatGamer on 12 June 2011

FW: 1.1 million
LT: 5.6 million



https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/173867/ps1-vs-ps2-vs-ps3-vs-ps4-90-exclusives/1/

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forevercloud3000 on 12 June 2011

I am thinking...
FW: 1.5-2million
LT:6million if Sony doesn't market it properly/or as you said it gets overshadowed by MW3 and BF3. 7million if marketed full force as it should be. There was pretty big spike in fanbase last time around. Now PS3 would have gained more buyers and the name Uncharted will have become more of a household name.



      

      

      

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SOLIDSNAKE08 on 13 June 2011

uncharted gamers are hardcore. they'll buy U3 along with all the other top games, cause thats what hardcore gamers do. i'll buy them all happily. U3 defo comes first though! i think it'll sell 6.5 million when all is said and done.



Yakuzaice on 13 June 2011
ethomaz said:

What? These numbers come from...

Lastest official numbers from DICE:

 There no way BF1942 sold 3 million at March 2004.

Battlefield Deluxe, Anthology, and Complete Collection include 1942.



Kantor on 13 June 2011

Uncharted 2:
FW: 850k
Ten Weeks: 2.35M
LTD: 4.65M
Probable LT: 5.5M or so

Uncharted 3 Prediction:
FW: 1.2-1.4M
Ten Weeks: 3-3.5M
LT: 6-6.5M



(Former) Lead Moderator and (Eternal) VGC Detective

Jay520 on 13 June 2011

@CGI

Well that's just not fair, you made the thread the moment it was announced! But yeah, you've beaten us both.

Also, regarding your prediction, you seem to think that a PS4 release would hurt U3's legs. I disagree; if ND puts UC4 on the PS3/PS4 (they've already said that UC3 may not be the last in the series), then I could see UC4 helping UC3, much like how GOW3 helped GOW2/GOW1.