I think a lot deoends on it's reception to be honest. If UC2 did not get the reviews it got then the sales would be more in line with the first one. If UC3 get's just as good reviews then it will do on par with uc2 at least.
So i'd say 5.5m lt and 1m first week.
Now onto this Battlefield thing.....
How on earth can you say Battlefield is not a big seller??
Bad Company 2 sold about 5.5m on PS3&360 and it has only been out a year....
As another poster mentioned they are not even full releases. Battlefield 2 sold about 2.2m in it's first year on sale. And that was on PC. This time around the game will get released on consoles for the first time. Obviously combined sales will be much higher then UC3.
But i will go so far as to bet that Battlefield 3 on PS3 will have a bigger first week then UC3 and will sell more lifetime then UC3 does.
Why do i think that?
Because Battlefield 3 has been getting bigtime exposure in the media due to the EA advertising campaign. The game is miles away but already has tv adverts. It had them on the champions league final!
Add to that it is winning awards all over the place from E3
•IGN.com – Best of E3 2011
•Game Informer – Best of E3 2011
•X-Play – Best of E3 ‘11
•GamePro – Best FPS
•GameSpot.com – Most Anticipated Game of E3 2011
•GamesRadar – Official Selection, E3 2011 Most Valuable Game
•Official Xbox Magazine - Official Selection, E3 2011 Most Valuable Game
•PC Gamer - Official Selection, E3 2011 Most Valuable Game
•Multiplayer.it – Best of E3 2011 Nominee
•GameBlog.fr – B3st of Show Nominee
The hype for the game will be huge. I think it will do at bare minimum CODmw1 numbers on PS3.
