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Forums - Gaming Discussion - I feel a MASSIVE change in the gaming industry

fkusumot on 29 December 2007
Legend11 said:
 

Interesting analogy, I think the situation is still different in key ways but I guess we'll have to wait for a "couple of years" before we see how things shake out. The PS1 had several 3+ million third party sellers in it's first year. It had several 5+ million third party sellers in it's second. It was also obvious by the start of it's second year that it was getting a lot of third party support with many of the best teams, games, and budgets. The announcement for Final Fantasy 7 was made 4 months after the system's North American launch for example. I guess we'll see though if the Wii is the PS1 when it comes to third parties instead of the PS2 (or whatever people want to compare it to). 


 That's interesting. What titles sold more than 3 million copies in the first year of the PS1?



I Blame Wii Fit!

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shams on 29 December 2007

The PS3 & 360 will remain viable business platforms - they will NOT vanish and become irrelevant.

Remember that the model differs for different sections of the industry - Sony & MS (in theory) should make a lot of money from software on their platforms (pity about the hardware losses though).

...

I have no doubt though, that the Wii *will* dominate - and has a real chance of becoming the most popular console ever. Even though the PS3/360 will suffer in terms of market share - just like the PSP - the actual sales figures will be respectable, and in the long term - the Wii will actually *help* them out by expanding the overall market.

Next year is when you'll see 3rd-party titles on the Wii come into their own. The early adopters of the Wii are primarily "Ninty fans" - who are more brand loyal to Ninty software. Now that sales are spreading into the "general public", as long as perceived quality is there - 3rd party sales should start to skyrocket.

Be real interesting to see how Madden (+ other games) sell this year on the Wii + other platforms.



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Legend11 on 29 December 2007
fkusumot said:
Legend11 said:
 

Interesting analogy, I think the situation is still different in key ways but I guess we'll have to wait for a "couple of years" before we see how things shake out. The PS1 had several 3+ million third party sellers in it's first year. It had several 5+ million third party sellers in it's second. It was also obvious by the start of it's second year that it was getting a lot of third party support with many of the best teams, games, and budgets. The announcement for Final Fantasy 7 was made 4 months after the system's North American launch for example. I guess we'll see though if the Wii is the PS1 when it comes to third parties instead of the PS2 (or whatever people want to compare it to). 


 That's interesting. What titles sold more than 3 million copies in the first year of the PS1?


They are LTD sales so I probably should have worded that differently (the games are Tekken and Rayman).  There were also two 5 million+ third party games released in the PS1's first year in North America (Tekken 2 and Resident Evil, LTD sales).  There were also some 1.5+ million plus third party games (LTD sales) as well in it's first full year in North America.  In it's second it had FF7 which has LTD sales of 9.72 million.

I'm not going to bother arguing anymore and will just wait and see, it's hard to debate predictions which is what most of the discussion is. 



fkusumot on 29 December 2007
Legend11 said:
fkusumot said:
 

That's interesting. What titles sold more than 3 million copies in the first year of the PS1?

They are LTD sales so I probably should have worded that differently (the games are Tekken and Rayman). There were also two 5 million+ third party games released in the PS1's first year in North America (Tekken 2 and Resident Evil, LTD sales). There were also some 1.5+ million plus third party games (LTD sales) as well in it's first full year in North America. In it's second it had FF7 which has LTD sales of 9.72 million.

I'm not going to bother arguing anymore and will just wait and see, it's hard to debate predictions which is what most of the discussion is.


 Ah, okay. I didn't remember the time period that well (12-13 years ago) but I didn't recall any 3rd party titles that sold 3 million in the first year. I thought you might have access to some old charts. Anyways, from what I said earlier, I really think it will only take two years total, so one more year left, to see if third parties are going to put AAA development on the Wii. If there's no significant shift by TGS next year then it's not going to happen like some people are predicting. If most devs/publishers can survive off of PS3/360 being their primary focus then they can, if not, not.



I Blame Wii Fit!

Girl Gamer Elite on 29 December 2007

So Legend, if you're so sure of these claims (from the oh so credible game informer) then why do you feel the need to challenge them by presenting them to us? Sounds like you're trying to create a consensus of belief to help yourself believe the games you love will always remain on your precious 360. ;)



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Girl Gamer Elite on 29 December 2007

Oh Soriku, I'm sure legend heard someone say it on another message board or forum somewhere, just like we were to believe that Super Mario Galaxy was only five hours long because of someone's second hand account. Legend11's "facts" are at best cherry picked statistics and at thier worst, little more than word of mouth.

He'll basically believe anything so long as it tells him what he wants to believe.



Avinash_Tyagi on 29 December 2007
Mummelmann said:
Wow, fantastic reasoning. How is prediting the doom of PS3 and 360 sales different from "daring" to believe that Wii sales might slow down at one point? There are plenty of people who want one of the two other consoles, like here in Scandinavia where the Wii really isn't doing that well at all. The entire world does not love the Wii, but big parts of it does. I think those parts will do as casuals often do; tire.
Go ahead, tell me I'm ignorant, I don't care. Happy new year!

 Just like they did for the DS...Oh wait that never happened



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

leo-j on 29 December 2007

look at my signature



 

mM
facher83 on 29 December 2007
TurdFergusonMcGee said:
I'd rather play PSone than Wii. On wii all i have is mario. On PSone i'd have Crash Bandicoot, Final Fantasy, Driver 1 and 2, Grand theft auto 1 and 2, Gran Turismo 1 and 2, etc. More games and the graphics are almost equal.

 PSOne, huh?

I'd rather play SNES... oh wait! I can do that on Wii

I'd rather play NES... oh wait!  I can do that on Wii

I'd rather play my old (though small) Game Cube library...  oh wait!  I can do that on Wii

I'd like some better graphics than PS2...  oh wait!  I can do that on Wii

I'd rather play N64... oh wait!  I can do that on Wii  



Numbers: Checker Players > Halo Players

Checkers Age and replayability > Halo Age and replayability

Therefore, Checkers > Halo

So, Checkers is a better game than Halo.

facher83 on 29 December 2007
Legend11 said:
fkusumot said:
Legend11 said:
 

Interesting analogy, I think the situation is still different in key ways but I guess we'll have to wait for a "couple of years" before we see how things shake out. The PS1 had several 3+ million third party sellers in it's first year. It had several 5+ million third party sellers in it's second. It was also obvious by the start of it's second year that it was getting a lot of third party support with many of the best teams, games, and budgets. The announcement for Final Fantasy 7 was made 4 months after the system's North American launch for example. I guess we'll see though if the Wii is the PS1 when it comes to third parties instead of the PS2 (or whatever people want to compare it to).


That's interesting. What titles sold more than 3 million copies in the first year of the PS1?


They are LTD sales so I probably should have worded that differently (the games are Tekken and Rayman). There were also two 5 million+ third party games released in the PS1's first year in North America (Tekken 2 and Resident Evil, LTD sales). There were also some 1.5+ million plus third party games (LTD sales) as well in it's first full year in North America. In it's second it had FF7 which has LTD sales of 9.72 million.

I'm not going to bother arguing anymore and will just wait and see, it's hard to debate predictions which is what most of the discussion is.


 Your post makes more sense now....  the whole "I don't really have any facts or sources on this information, just trust me" doesn't usually fly for most people.

 As I said somewhere else, Wii has managed fifteen million+ sellers in the first year, which is not exactly bad... not great, but I imagine it's close to the 360 in that regard - 360 has a little over double that number, but has been around twice as long, so it makes sense.

 LTD compared to first year.... I just couldn't grasp the concept here.  There's not way to compare a 6-8 year life to a 1 year life so 'easily' as it seemed you had... 



Numbers: Checker Players > Halo Players

Checkers Age and replayability > Halo Age and replayability

Therefore, Checkers > Halo

So, Checkers is a better game than Halo.