I don't think this gen is comparable to anything, this is the first time there has been 3 consoles that are surviving just fine, this is the first time they have taken such vastly different approaches to the market, this is the first time 3rd parties bet on the wrong horse from the get go, this is the first time there has been such a large technology gap between the market leader and their competitors, this is the first time things have been in the position that they are now.

We can all look to the past and draw our parallel lines like we're palm reading and looking to the past as an oracle, but this is uncharted water. Odds are assumptions made based on the past generations will have only limited use in this new climate. All the arguments presented by legend and GGE ect, are great, but are largely inapplicable to what's going on now. The differences are too great compared to previous gens. We can take stabs in the dark (even if we think we can see) but I bet there will be alot of surprises along the way, and things will probably turn out alot different than we all expect.

"this is the first time there has been 3 consoles that are surviving just fine"....

So what you're saying is that the PS3 is doing much better compared to the GC from last gen. Sorry, but no.


The third party support arguement is getting tired. Nintendo is kicking the crap out of almost all of them. They took the publishing throne from EA this year and they ain't going to be giving it back anytime soon.

"this is the first time there has been 3 consoles that are surviving just fine"....

So what you're saying is that the PS3 is doing much better compared to the GC from last gen. Sorry, but no.


The third party support arguement is getting tired. Nintendo is kicking the crap out of almost all of them. They took the publishing throne from EA this year and they ain't going to be giving it back anytime soon.

To me it seems the one of the best analogy for the consoles race is a car's transmission. Manual versus automatic. Manual is more responsive, better control, better gas mileage and for those that really like them, a ton of more fun. (Which often negates the prior two benefits by the way the car is driven!)

So, who wants an automatic transmission? Those that don't want to think about shifting gears. You just get in and go, without the car dying as you stall out when the stoplight turns green. Females and older adults like that, and even some tired young adult males coming home from work. So much so, that we have 3 cars in the family, and all automatics because if you need to trade about, all of us have to be able to drive the other cars, and two never learned (nor want to learn) how to drive a stick.

I see the consoles being the same way. You have the PS3 and X360 focused in on that group that wants to get deep into the game and play it hard. The Wii is more the automatic. Anyone can pick it up and play.

Now sorry to those manual transmission fanatics, the automatic is here to stay, and will always sell more than the manuals, no matter how much you figure that automatic transmissions ruin the car industry. But the good news... Manuals were not doomed, they just sold to a more limited audience. I think the same is true for the consoles as well.

Nintendo fan boys... Why? Why?

Yes, the Wii will probably become the greatest selling console of all time, but the Xbox 360, and Playstation 3, will sell well too, and they are not, going no where. The market is not going to change. It is going to be like this. The Wii will be at the top of the list, but the competition will always remain strong. Yes, the Wii is a major success, but the Xbox 360, and Playstation 3, are strong, and respected, competitors, and I like all of them.

I didn't read it on another message board, I know all those games are in production.  The SMG thread I made before was tongue in cheek and was made to prove a point that was lost on most people. 

As for proof that those games are in production, the information is out there and should be very easy to find.  For example Deus Ex 3 has an official website at http://www.eidosmontreal.com/en/games.html.

http://www.totalvideogames.com/news/Just_Cause_2_Confirmed_10829_6279_0.htm

The biggest difference between the Wii and the PS1 or PS2, hell the biggest difference between this gen and other gens is that 3rd party were sure the Wii would fail and had little support at first whereas 3rd party corectly bet that the Ps2 would repeat the success of the PS1 and during the PS1 era they bet on it because they were pissed of with Nintendo's strongarm tactics (with good cause too) and sega's confusing hardware strategy.

This is the main reason why the Wii had such poor hardcore support in its first year (as they take longer to make than casual games) and why PS360 have a good chance to do better than GC/Xbox did last gen.

As the harcore games coming out on the Wii in 08 will have had more time to mature they should have a better quality and thus better sales (Nintendo doesn't sell more games because their is Nintendo marked on it, they sell more games because their average quality is much better with relatively few duds).

And once hardcore games have proven that they can sell on the Wii if the quality is there you will start to see more PS3/X360/Wii cross-platform games and eventually they will be developed with the Wii in mind first and then ported to the PS360 just like last gen games were mostly made with the PS2 in mind first (Splinter Cell is at least one exception to that though).

If you think that the Wii's lower power will prevent developers from targeting it first let me remind you of all the early 360 games that saw PS2 releases despite the even bigger power difference between PS2 and 360 because developers and publisher just couldn't ignore the PS2 behemoth. The Wii is not there yet, and you could argue it will never be but it is on the path to be there and we will have to wait until it is not sold out in all 3 major regions to know if it will fall of that path (depending on where the sales stabilise once it is not sold out anymore).

Producing a game is like building a house.

Once you start going, you lay the foundation, get all the tools, the labor, get the frame and structure going up, it's hard to switch gears and start a new house.... you could just abandon what you're doing, but that costs a lot of money and time.

Logically it will take months to even a year for a gear-change, or a philosophy change from producers to occur. Some are already phasing to a new idea that Wii should see more games based on user base. I don't think we'll see 'great', amazing games that people remember for years until at least next summer or winter, by 3rd parties... we're talking, the epic blockbusters that take a year to a few years to produce/perfect.

I see where Legend is coming from, but in the grand scheme of things, as the Wii's userbase continues to skyrocket, it won't matter if games sell to only 2% of the Wii userbase, it'll still sell as much as the PS360 version would and, with the drastically lower costs of development, it'll be a better investment.

I realize that the games are portable between the two (three if you count the PC), but you have to realize that most of these games aren't going to make their money back without breaking the million mark, and unless these are hyped games, the odds are that they won't make those numbers.

Take the Orange Box, for example: it's a game that's as "hardcore" as they come, and yet it has only sold 423,966 on the 360 and another 62,000 on the PS3 (with its shoddy, rushjob port).

It'll still do fine because the game's primary market is on the PC where it has no doubt sold the most copies, but it didn't even break a million between the two consoles and had it been developed with consoles in mind and wasn't a known franchise already (like many still are), it could have not made its money back.

Namco has gone on record saying that, in order for a PS360 game to break even, the game needs to sell at LEAST a million copies. That sucks. Most games never achieve those kinds of lifetime sales, making the risk of creating a game for the PS360 very high, even if you DO port the hell out of it, the porting still costs money to do.

As the Wii userbase continues to climb, the risk of developing a Wii game will drop. The Wii has the same potential to sell hardcore games, it's just that the majority of 3rd party Wii offerings have ranged from decent to total crap, hence why the games tend to sell poorly (and in some cases, still sell well, like Sonic Secret Rings which has 750k sold).

The situation you're talking about isn't a permanent one. The lower development costs coupled with a higher install base will push more games toward the Wii (it already is). The money will do the talking here and the Wii will never become any LESS lucrative as time passes.