I'm just saying scale matters.  A game that sells 100-200k isn't "big", by any real definition of the term.  The only reason we have anyone considering those sales as such is because home console game sales are (generally) in the toilet today.  No one would apply that bar to PS2, DS or PSP games.  Hell, they don't even really apply that to Wii games, it's either Nintendo million sellers or total bomba.  Why suddenly makes an exception for PS3? 500k already seems like a "middle ground" compared to previous generations, iIt all depends on where you want to draw that line.  And when you do draw a low line, I think it's worth differentiating for larger scale anyway... simply listing Dragon Quest X and Dynasty Warriors 7 alongside each other with no distinction, as if they were equals, is incredibly disingenuous.  PS3 actually doesn't have a game as "big" as DQX, the platform can't seem to even support games of that scale sales wise (while Wii has multiple titles that have sold over 3m, more than PS2 or PS1 do even in fact).

The "maybe" games I listed were just that though, possibilities.  Strikers is probably the longest shot out of what I listed, but the IP (IE) is strong, the genre/direction (multiplayer focused casual sports) is strong on Wii, and if L5 hits all the right notes I think it might manage that milestone.  It'd be better as a holiday release though, spring's definitely tougher sales wise.  Just Dance 2 I think you're really underselling though (which really, is what people have always done with JD)... it definitely has the right ingredients to really take off if handled right.  Hopefully Nintendo doesn't fuck it up.

I'd say my PS3 maybes are just as iffy though.  No Tales game this entire generation has managed 500k, and even on PS3 Graces stalled out below 350k.  I still think Xillia has a shot, being the first "ground up" entry on PS3, but it's still a pretty high bar. Ninokuni hasn't passed 500k yet on DS either, me listing that game has a lot to do with faith in L5 managing to correct the marketing mistakes they made last time.  In all four cases "maybe" is just that though... there's a way to 500k, but it might or might not happen.  Unlike the other titles listed, which are all pretty much sure things.

And I'm not sure what you're arguing with me about Wii's awful sales.  I don't disagree, at all.  I'm just saying PS3's not going to go on as is indefinitely either, it's biggest games are all behind it and NGP is going to eat it's lunch.  This is probably it's last "big" year (Wii's was probably last year).

I never said that Nintendo games are million sellers or bomba? The definition was always the same for me this gen. Bigger than 100k is big IMO. It helps move HW and expand the active userbases. Problem is that even with a big 3m seller like DQX, Wii won't be going anywhere since that's about the only thing it's getting that can help move HW in big quantities in 2012 and like we saw previously with FFXIII, the HW boost dies off pretty quickly.

As long as PS3 gets support I cannot see it dying. Wii is not getting games anymore and has just too few announced for the future. That's where I'm aiming at. We don't know yet if NGP is going to kill PS3 or not. We don't know about the official existence of any NGP games coming from third parties yet, so we can't say which series will leave the PS3 (or most probably go multiplat) with NGP. It's far too early for that.

Yes, your PS3 maybes aren't also granted for 500k, but not taking into account that the PS3's library still has many relevant games is disingenuous. Games that sell more than 100k have proven to boost or even stabilize the HW sales, and PS3 has a lot coming up. Take a look at TLS, although it had a new bundle, it boosted sales. Last time we had this arguement, you were listing TLS as a big game for the Wii as well and now according to you this isn't big anymore. Your arguments were pretty similar for TLS than those you are using in favor of JD2 and Inazuma eleven Strikers. There's no way those games will sell 500k. Not even a big JRPG project by pedigree developers that got its own conference and a lot of advertisement was able to get over 200k. I don't know how you can excpect IES to sell well when it is simply a spin.off, not even a main game. And soccer games have been selling worse and worse on the Wii as time passed by. Yes, the anime will help, but that's the only thing that will help the game sell. That's why I can't see it go over 150k. Just Dance 2 won't sell either, dance genre has died in Japan years ago. It won't come back now all of a sudden only because Nintendo is the publisher. Japan is a totally different market than the West when it comes to casual games, I think you are not understanding what casuals want there.

Finally, I never said PS3 was going to live forever. I said that the future is far brighter for it than for the Wii. I even accepted a decline for the PS3 this year.

"The biggest pusher of the PS3 is probably the Slim and that came out over a year ago."

I like to think of that event as the rebirth of the PS3. A Slimmer version came a long with a price and from that came the switch in Wii and PS3 sales. There are still several more price cuts left into the PS3 (the console is selling for $350 in Japan, there a lot more price cuts to go till it's under $200 which would be a sales explosion), and obviously there are going to be more MGS, FF, RE, Yakuza, DMC games coming this gen more big spikes, and like I said another Slimmer PS3 would kill in Japan, which IS coming.

Most of that 6.3 million sales was from it's high price, as it get's cheaper sales will continue to rise. I didn't specifically say the PS3 will do 15 million, but close, within 1 - 2 million away easy, the Wii will probably barely manage 15 million. Also whos to say in the future the PS3 won't be doing over 40K a week and the Wii under 10K? The way this gen is going that's easily possible.

I didn't say you said it, I just said general sentiment.  Shiren 3 on Wii sold over 100k, yet you'd get laughed at if you tried to say that was a "big" game.  Same for Chocobo's Dungeon, Tatsunoko Vs. Capcom, Family Ski, Deca Sports 2 or any number of other titles.  Hell, even something like Monster Hunter G, which sold 250k on Wii, wouldn't really be considered "big" in the scheme of things. The only real reason I can see people making this sudden exception on PS3 is because upper tier PS3 software sales are so pitiful comparatively; only one million seller and it also represents the lowest series sales in almost 20 years.  So because of that, we all lower standards, and the basement drops too.

360 also gets great support (including "big" PS3 titles like FFXIII-2, MGS Rising, etc), how "alive" would you say that platform is today?  Multiplatform support means little if you're the less desirable system.  And userbase doesn't matter either, as Wii multiplatform sales often show.  NGP is dangerous to PS3 precisely because it makes the platform redundant, if DW8 or WE2012 is also on NGP, why bother with the PS3 version?  This is exactly what PS3's done to Wii and 360 (for different reasons), and it's definitely not immune itself to the phenomenon.

And I wouldn't disagree that a solid lineup of middle tier games is important to a platform's general health.  In fact, I'd go so far as to say this is why Wii's decline has been so hard and so fast, it's never had a strong middle ground of releases to prop it up between the smash hits... but then the middle tier isn't "big" which is exactly my point.  Dragon Quest and Final Fantasy are in vastly different leagues from stuff like Dynasty Warriors or DMC, they're not the same thing and they're not even approaching comparability.  Me saying 500k for "big" was probably already too much concession, really we should probably be looking at million sellers exclusively for the title.

As for Strikers, it's less a "soccer game" than it is a mascot sports title.  Really, despite being based on soccer, it has more in common with something like Mario Sports Mix or even Smash Bros (which Hino said the game was modeled after) than it does Winning Eleven or FIFA.  It's local multiplayer focused and casual family oriented, which usually lends a recipe for success on Wii, even for games not starring Mario (Taiko, Momotaro, etc).  And it uses a million seller brand, which doesn't exactly hurt it's chances.  Like I said, I can see a road to 500k for these reasons... which is pretty unlike something like The Last Story.  

Just Dance 2 meanwhile is pretty different from the dance games that declined in Japan years back (ie: DDR).  All I'm saying is don't discount it out of hand... the series has served more crow than probably any other this generation, and it's done that for a reason.  Maybe Nintendo can replicate that phenom success in Japan, maybe they can't, but all the same there's a chance.  And again, this situation is pretty much nothing like TLS... you throwing that in here makes zero sense?

Nice that on Wii and Ps3 we seem to generally agree on the bigger picture though, even if we disagree on the smaller merits.  Wii's essentially done now, and PS3 will be too in another year imo.

I was basing myself on Mario Strikers Charged as well which sold less than 250k. That's a soccer game with mascots there and Mario is a giant next to the inazuma brand. I honestly can't see the mass appeal you are speaking of.

We will have to wait and see in regards to JD2, which I repeat I can't see reigniting the dance genre in Japan. Recent fitness games in Japan included dancing and none was able to take off.

As for TLS, I'm just saying that you considered it a big upcoming game once. I admit I did too, but only because of the hype going on in these forums. So it would be wiser not to expect such big things from unproven IPs like JD2 or Inazuma Sports game in Japan. If it happens, then good, but I wouldn't even list them as maybes since chances are they won't be big hits. Another example would be DQM:VRB which if I remember correctly you were expecting very big things from, and it ended up dying at less than 300k. And that game comes from a franchise bigger than IE and comparable to Mario, yet sales didn't live up to expectations. Also remember your expectations for Ni No KUNI DS, you said 2 million was possible considering teh genre, who the publisher was and the dev team it had.

360 is basically a PS3 with less features and it's an aAmerican product and with less brand recognition than Playstation. Both get about the same games, but it's obvious which console the majority of Japanese gamers are buying. That's why 360 is never taking off, and its best selling games are exclusives.

I agree that PS3's final big year will be this one, but I also think that it won't be dead by next year. Just like Wii isn't totally dead now, I expect PS3 to be in the same situation or perhaps a bit better than where Wii is right now. Wii will be dead by next year.

Mario Strikers Charged came out 3 years ago, when the Wii market was still formative.  It also released against a flurry of bigger Mario titles overshadowing it (Mario Party 8, Super Paper Mario, Mario Galaxy), and didn't get near the sort of promotional push IE Strikers is likely to get.  And it still sold over 200k.  I wouldn't be surprised in the least if IE Strikers sold similarly, but then I also don't think Strikers Charged is the ceiling for it.

Fitness games in general haven't taken off, besides Wii Fit none on any system are over 500k.  So what makes Wii Fit different?  What might make Just Dance different?

As for my TLS comments, I think you're misremembering... I said I thought it'd sell over 200k (around 250k was what I pegged), but I never that was "big".  That's very much a mid-tier title, which is what I'd consider central to our debate here.  IE Strikers and JD2 might end up just being mid-tier too (as might Xillia and Ninokuni), but in those cases I can see the possibility of something bigger.  I don't think that was really the case for TLS.

I did think that was the case for DQMBRV though, yes.  And I still don't entirely understand why it didn't sell better, even though it is still the best selling card battler this generation (better than even anything on DS or PSP).  Looking back though, the DQMI&II remake on PS1 sold even worse (and that was an actual full RPG), so it may also be a case of the subseries just not being as strong on consoles.  I also think Horii should've done better on maintaining the fanbase on Wii... the 3 year gap between Swords and BRV was really stupid imo, and it still boggles my mind that we haven't seen more DQ spinoffs and maybe even a remake on Wii yet.  Something like Itadaki Street Wii, Torneko 4 or DQVIIr would pretty easy to do, and probably make a decent to huge return for the company.

Ninokuni DS I don't understand though, that really says nothing about sales potential on Wii for anything.  Unless you want to try and discredit my Ninokuni PS3 projection?  If you really want to go down the "well, you got this wrong before" road for the sake of it though, I don't think we'll have anyone left in the thread qualified to make any more predictions. ;)

Agreed on Wii/PS3 though.  I think Wii this year is very much what PS3 can look forward to next.

lool @ some posts

People are WAY WAY WAY under-estimating DQX and how powerful it can potentially be.

Okay referring to your first paragraph, $300 it NOT the "big point for consumers" the mass market price is $199, PS3 is one or two price cuts away from that. The Wii is already at mass market price, any other price cut after will not have the same impact as a PS3 price cut would. $350 is still alot of money for people, $200 not so bad.

Now your second paragraph seemed to ignore my last post, yes those games coming out again is not going to make as big of an impact like the orignal but that's not to say there won't be an impact. And like I said I still wouldn't call the PS3 price "good" it's still more expensive then the PS2 and Wii's launch price. That's not good? 

Now your last paragraph...let's go back to the X360, this is it's 6th year out and it's the market leader in America, should that make sense? no, but it is, it's selling better then it ever did. That's why I'm saying the PS3 could easily start doing PSP numbers in Japan. The Wii doesn't have much hope it's losing sales in every market, lack of games, and the HD consoles are taking over, the 3DS and PSP2 aer really going to kill the Wii sales in Japan.

... If it releases on the Wii, and not the 3DS.

It's not going to release on 3DS. DQ titles release on established platforms with high userbases. DQXI may release on 3DS if it takes off as it's expected too.