Wii below 60% market share in Japan, where will it finish?

[trestres]

jarrod said:

trestres said:

I never said that Nintendo games are million sellers or bomba? The definition was always the same for me this gen. Bigger than 100k is big IMO. It helps move HW and expand the active userbases. Problem is that even with a big 3m seller like DQX, Wii won't be going anywhere since that's about the only thing it's getting that can help move HW in big quantities in 2012 and like we saw previously with FFXIII, the HW boost dies off pretty quickly.

As long as PS3 gets support I cannot see it dying. Wii is not getting games anymore and has just too few announced for the future. That's where I'm aiming at. We don't know yet if NGP is going to kill PS3 or not. We don't know about the official existence of any NGP games coming from third parties yet, so we can't say which series will leave the PS3 (or most probably go multiplat) with NGP. It's far too early for that.

Yes, your PS3 maybes aren't also granted for 500k, but not taking into account that the PS3's library still has many relevant games is disingenuous. Games that sell more than 100k have proven to boost or even stabilize the HW sales, and PS3 has a lot coming up. Take a look at TLS, although it had a new bundle, it boosted sales. Last time we had this arguement, you were listing TLS as a big game for the Wii as well and now according to you this isn't big anymore. Your arguments were pretty similar for TLS than those you are using in favor of JD2 and Inazuma eleven Strikers. There's no way those games will sell 500k. Not even a big JRPG project by pedigree developers that got its own conference and a lot of advertisement was able to get over 200k. I don't know how you can excpect IES to sell well when it is simply a spin.off, not even a main game. And soccer games have been selling worse and worse on the Wii as time passed by. Yes, the anime will help, but that's the only thing that will help the game sell. That's why I can't see it go over 150k. Just Dance 2 won't sell either, dance genre has died in Japan years ago. It won't come back now all of a sudden only because Nintendo is the publisher. Japan is a totally different market than the West when it comes to casual games, I think you are not understanding what casuals want there.

Finally, I never said PS3 was going to live forever. I said that the future is far brighter for it than for the Wii. I even accepted a decline for the PS3 this year.

I didn't say you said it, I just said general sentiment.  Shiren 3 on Wii sold over 100k, yet you'd get laughed at if you tried to say that was a "big" game.  Same for Chocobo's Dungeon, Tatsunoko Vs. Capcom, Family Ski, Deca Sports 2 or any number of other titles.  Hell, even something like Monster Hunter G, which sold 250k on Wii, wouldn't really be considered "big" in the scheme of things. The only real reason I can see people making this sudden exception on PS3 is because upper tier PS3 software sales are so pitiful comparatively; only one million seller and it also represents the lowest series sales in almost 20 years.  So because of that, we all lower standards, and the basement drops too.

360 also gets great support (including "big" PS3 titles like FFXIII-2, MGS Rising, etc), how "alive" would you say that platform is today?  Multiplatform support means little if you're the less desirable system.  And userbase doesn't matter either, as Wii multiplatform sales often show.  NGP is dangerous to PS3 precisely because it makes the platform redundant, if DW8 or WE2012 is also on NGP, why bother with the PS3 version?  This is exactly what PS3's done to Wii and 360 (for different reasons), and it's definitely not immune itself to the phenomenon.

And I wouldn't disagree that a solid lineup of middle tier games is important to a platform's general health.  In fact, I'd go so far as to say this is why Wii's decline has been so hard and so fast, it's never had a strong middle ground of releases to prop it up between the smash hits... but then the middle tier isn't "big" which is exactly my point.  Dragon Quest and Final Fantasy are in vastly different leagues from stuff like Dynasty Warriors or DMC, they're not the same thing and they're not even approaching comparability.  Me saying 500k for "big" was probably already too much concession, really we should probably be looking at million sellers exclusively for the title.

As for Strikers, it's less a "soccer game" than it is a mascot sports title.  Really, despite being based on soccer, it has more in common with something like Mario Sports Mix or even Smash Bros (which Hino said the game was modeled after) than it does Winning Eleven or FIFA.  It's local multiplayer focused and casual family oriented, which usually lends a recipe for success on Wii, even for games not starring Mario (Taiko, Momotaro, etc).  And it uses a million seller brand, which doesn't exactly hurt it's chances.  Like I said, I can see a road to 500k for these reasons... which is pretty unlike something like The Last Story.  

Just Dance 2 meanwhile is pretty different from the dance games that declined in Japan years back (ie: DDR).  All I'm saying is don't discount it out of hand... the series has served more crow than probably any other this generation, and it's done that for a reason.  Maybe Nintendo can replicate that phenom success in Japan, maybe they can't, but all the same there's a chance.  And again, this situation is pretty much nothing like TLS... you throwing that in here makes zero sense?

Nice that on Wii and Ps3 we seem to generally agree on the bigger picture though, even if we disagree on the smaller merits.  Wii's essentially done now, and PS3 will be too in another year imo.

I was basing myself on Mario Strikers Charged as well which sold less than 250k. That's a soccer game with mascots there and Mario is a giant next to the inazuma brand. I honestly can't see the mass appeal you are speaking of.

We will have to wait and see in regards to JD2, which I repeat I can't see reigniting the dance genre in Japan. Recent fitness games in Japan included dancing and none was able to take off.

As for TLS, I'm just saying that you considered it a big upcoming game once. I admit I did too, but only because of the hype going on in these forums. So it would be wiser not to expect such big things from unproven IPs like JD2 or Inazuma Sports game in Japan. If it happens, then good, but I wouldn't even list them as maybes since chances are they won't be big hits. Another example would be DQM:VRB which if I remember correctly you were expecting very big things from, and it ended up dying at less than 300k. And that game comes from a franchise bigger than IE and comparable to Mario, yet sales didn't live up to expectations. Also remember your expectations for Ni No KUNI DS, you said 2 million was possible considering teh genre, who the publisher was and the dev team it had.

360 is basically a PS3 with less features and it's an aAmerican product and with less brand recognition than Playstation. Both get about the same games, but it's obvious which console the majority of Japanese gamers are buying. That's why 360 is never taking off, and its best selling games are exclusives.

I agree that PS3's final big year will be this one, but I also think that it won't be dead by next year. Just like Wii isn't totally dead now, I expect PS3 to be in the same situation or perhaps a bit better than where Wii is right now. Wii will be dead by next year.