Price cut? Nope, price cut just won't cut it (No pun intended) Only software counts and to be honest, it looks pretty bleak. Only Zelda: Skyward Sword, Mario Sports Mix and whatever software might be accompanying the Vitality Sensor (if it is released this year) might sell millions with an emphasis on "might". Oh, and Dragon Quest X, assuming that it is also released this year. This could become more possible however if Nintendo decides to unveil some new surprises on E3 2011. I mean hey, New Super Mario Bros Wii and Donkey Kong Country Returns were both first unveiled on E3 2009 and 2010 respectively and we all know how this went.

1- You forget that during these year the Wii was always in low supplies after the holidays, leading to big downfall in sales, which could mean it could do better during Januar those weeks.

2- Motion control wasn't the reason for the Wii's sucess, games were. If Kinect doesn't has something big for this year it might just die.

3- Galaxy may be high profile, but that doesn't means it moved hardaware (and it really didn't). Wii was down in Japan because in 2009 it had the massive release of NSMB Wii (you migh negate as much as you want it didn't move hardware outside, but it moved huge numbers in Japan), this year it will problably have DQX, which will have a similar effect (although it problably won't conpensate for the lackluster sales through the year.

1. I see ignore the past trends, because you want the future trends to be different.  In the past Wii picked up in November as well.  This BF weekend and all holiday season long thier were great deals on Wii consoles of all colors that is what helped the Wii not fall as bad as the previous several months.  We dont have to wait long to find this out lets just watch January and February sales to get an idea.

2. How so?  Give us an idea of what a Heart Rate Monitor could do? I wear one everyday by the way. Use it to track estimated calories when I do something more physical than norm. Has helped me lose 80lbs.  Yet have no need for any sort of game to track how low my heart can get.  Which is the only idea people have mentioned sometimes calling the game Wii Relax. Not to mention something as simple as a Heart Rate Monitor attachement could easily be done by Sony and MS anyway and I am sure they explored it after Nintendo showed the Velocity Sensor. As for uDraw you expect anyone to support a 3rd party peripheral.

3. Boosts in Japan I will believe it when I see it.

Oh and by the Wii after the 1st week (according to OP) Wii is already down YoY 170,000

1) Look, Wii's sales in every past October have been great for some reason or another, this time, they weren't. That's what I meant. Also, the promotional deals were relatively few (were there any big ones, really?) for Wii
in EMEAA and it still started doing respectable numbers in November and December.

Also, I don't know why we're arguing on this one, actually. I do think that Wii will be down YOY this year, especially in January. I just expect it to be more along 10% for the entire year than 20% as you expect. It'll prolly be down a horrific amount in January, but I expect it to recover somewhat in later months.

2) We barely know anything about the VS yet. If Nintendo has made the concept, surely they have some idea regarding what they can do with it. And I doubt Sony and MS explored the concept since they didn't bother doing so with Wii Fit. Also, Nintendo has helped design uDraw and, if they decide to support with a Mario game, I could easily see it holding off Kinect and Move to an extent.

3) Okay. Wait for DQX to release then, :P.

Price cut with games will do it, as long as more games are announced at E3

That would be awesome, but it requires lots of 'ifs'.

Frankly, I expect a decrease between 8%~16%, thus I think sales this year will be around 16~17ish. Probably enough to top 100, but quite short on 105.

But who knows, maybe all you named and DQX do the trick.

Yeah I know a lot of "ifs" have to happen but I think it can.

I think the VS as we knew it (ie: a Wii accessory that fits over your finger and is used with casual relaxation or wellness software) is probably dead, but I'm pretty sure we'll see the concept behind it (biofeedback) integrated into Nintendo's products sooner or later.  Maybe even as that "differentiating" gimmick for Wii 2, since things like improved motion controls, visuals and online alone obviously won't be enough...

By the way I changed my prediction from 21.8 Million to 22.1 Million for 2011...

I now think Wii will sell 106 Million by end of 2011!

105m, maybe they can,but, maybe they can't.