Here we go with the outrageous Wii drops again!

People never learn, I swear.  It's not even logical anymore, it's just what they hope will happen.

In 2010 Nintendo added a 2nd game to the standard packaging. Still month after month the Wii was down YoY compared to 2009.  It took special deals every week (besides 1) for the Wii to only end up like 10% down YoY in NA for the Holidays.  In NA I think it is safe to say that the average price paid for a Wii during the holiday weeks in NA was less than $180.

So in 2011 why down 20%. Well first off why the OP thinks that Wii will do better in the 1st qtr this year compared to last is beyond me.  January 2010 Wii did over 1.6M, October 2009 Wii did 1.5M. The reason I mention that is January usually performs similiar to the previous October.  October 2010 Wii did 721K.  There is no NSMBWii to help boost hardware sales in January 2011.  The price cut wont come 1st qtr.

Then add in competition is more intense then ever for the Wii. No longer is Wii the only Motion based system on the market.  Any price cut Nintendo does will also correspond with price cuts by Microsoft and Sony.  The press and public are talking about Kinect, and the press has written articles about how the Wii is now passe.  All of this points to the Wii selling less and the 360 and PS3 selling more.

Finally with 85 million consoles sold no longer will a software title make any measureable difference to the hardware sales.  Not to mention Vitality Sensor is probably something that has simply been put aside and what it does can be done with Kinect.  How do I mean? Well Kinect can sense how fast you are moving about and can estimate how much effort you would be putting in.  Already titles on Kinect estimate your physical exertion without a device clipped to my finger.

O: i cant believe i forgot to say this "THIS WII IS DOOOOOOMZED"!!!!! :D

1 - That's more or less a coincidence, I would say. I doubt you can find much of a reason for January replicating October. I don't see how demand would be similar. On top of that, October was a month which was the first to be entirely affected by the price cut so its sales were inflated. Therefore, January would have been significantly larger than October otherwise. Also, even though the deals are all over now, Wii is still only slightly down YOY (except for Japan, which won't contribute much later on).

2 - Being the only motion system did not make much of a difference during the holidays and most likely won't in 2011. Also, if Wii does end up in the dire situation that you expect, keep in mind that Nintendo has the ability to cut down far more than Sony and Microsoft. A $99 Wii (easily possible whilst remaining profitable) could easily triumph over a $119 360 and $179 PS3 (breaking even on 360, losing heavily on PS3). Also, the press, video game journalists and general press journalists alike, have spoken critically of Wii since its release. That is no new factor and will not affect Wii sales.

3 - Individual software won't make a difference (save for titles in Japan like DQX, and, actually, popular genres such as JRPGs which aren't represented well on Wii could still bring in new audiences), but what put the Wii on its path of destruction in the past two years was the lack of software support throughout the year. Just having a couple of titles released here and there will give people a reason to buy a Wii during the summer which hasn't been present. Also, VS's specific uses are still unknown so we can't say much on that (I doubt Kinect can sense your pulse when you're standing still, though, and, if it can, I'm impressed).

1.

Oct 2008 - Wii sold 1.603M
Jan 2009 - Wii sold 1.594M

Oct 2007 - Wii sold 1.05M
Jan 2008 - Wii sold 1.18M

2.

And many casuals just werent aware of Kinect and Move yet.   The more time, the more time they try at friends house (remember the majority of Kinects and Moves bought were not used until December 25th). The more time that goes by the more others will be exposed to Kinect and Move.  Not to mention that all the deals the Wii received were during the holiday buying season.  Those special deals drove a lot of extra sales.  The press I am talking about is not gaming press I am talking about the mainstream press and the mainstream press was good to Nintendo. Now they are saying Kinect out Wii's the Wii.

3. Last summer Wii had Super Mario Galaxy 2 and dont give me crap that wasnt high profile software.  JRPGs arent going to move much Wii hardware. In Japan maybe a little, but Japan is where Wii is tailing off the most. Was down like 50% in Japan in December YoY.

As for pricing Nintendo is going to go for profit before selling a couple of million more and they arent going to sell the Wii for $99 with 2 pieces of software free.

A Price Cut for the Wii is going to help sales more than you think...the PS2 sold 48% of its sales when its price was $150 or less...people always say that $200 is the magic price but in my opinion $150 is when systems really start to sell.

Yes, Move and Kinect will give customers more Motion control options but in the end the Wii is the cheapest, most casual, and most well known console out there still. I don't know if Move and Kinect can change that...

As for the Vitality Sensor...I don't think you could be more wrong.

100M is given I think, not sure whether a price cut will boost it to such high levels though! I reckon about 103, so around ~18-19m. Not a bad prediction though, depending what Nintendo unveils at E3.

Well 360 will quite possibly hit $150 as well.  Yes Wii is most well known and thus my time argument about 2010.  Kinect just introduced and has only scratched the surface in exposure to possible consumers. By the time the big holiday selling period comes next year Kinect and Move will be far more exposed.  They wll impact Wii sales a great deal more next year then they did this year. 

As for the Vitality Sensor as I said last year. It is dead.

Yes, the 360 without Kinect will most likely hit $150 in 2011 as well. The 360 has been Wii's price for a while now including currently but without Kinect.

Also, as to why I think the Wii will be up Y.O.Y in the 1st half and Summer is because of the following...(already posted earlier in the thread but you missed it)

In 2009 the Wii had no big System Selling games from January-July(W.S.R) and again from July-October(W.F.P)

In 2010 the Wii had no big games from January-May(S.M.G.2) and again from May-October(W.P and K.E.Y)

In 2011 the Wii has a better start with The Last Story in January for Japan, Mario Sports Mix in February for America, and Mario Sports Mix, Kirby's Epic Yarn, and uDraw in Q1 for Others. I expect Mario Sports Mix to be a big hit in America and Others with the potential of selling 10 Million lifetime worldwide. I also expect Zelda Skyward Sword by May 2011.

The Vitality Sensor is not dead and will be the biggest surprise hit of this Gen!

UGH! I clicked outside the box and it ruined my entire argument...

Okay, so really short -

1 - This year's different - other Octobers have been great, but this time Wii picked up in November.

2 - VS could easily counter Kinect/Move and then some if it releases. And, I was just reminded of uDraw -- that, too, could produce a similar effect. Also, exposure may not necessarily be able to make up for the massive hype and advertisement that Kinect won't have most of this year.

3 - One title doesn't do much unless it's along the lines of Halo 3, NSMBW or GT5. It needs a bunch of titles, which it seems to have this time. Also, Wii was down in Japan 'cause of NSMBW's HW boost. It'll have one significantly larger with DQX and it'll have TLS's boost, for whatever it'll be worth.