*Prediction__Wii to sell 105 Million End Of 2011!*

[thx1139]

Immortal said:

thx1139 said:

Why after the Wii has had 2 straight years of sales declines you predict the Wii to increase in sales. I believe the Wii will be down 20% YoY.  If you want Wii Vitality Sensor pick up EA SPorts Active and you get your Heart Rate Monitor.

Only one of those years had a price cut, neither of them had a massively successful peripheral (doesn't matter what you say about it, Nintendo's made a ridiculous peripheral successful before, :P) and neither of them had great software support year round.

He expects Wii to get all three things this year and if it does, his prediction is completely reasonable.

Also, why the heck do you expect Wii to be down 20% YOY? It was down 11% and 12% respectively over the past two years and, with a price cut early in the year, it could easily wane that decline somewhat.

In 2010 Nintendo added a 2nd game to the standard packaging. Still month after month the Wii was down YoY compared to 2009.  It took special deals every week (besides 1) for the Wii to only end up like 10% down YoY in NA for the Holidays.  In NA I think it is safe to say that the average price paid for a Wii during the holiday weeks in NA was less than $180.

So in 2011 why down 20%. Well first off why the OP thinks that Wii will do better in the 1st qtr this year compared to last is beyond me.  January 2010 Wii did over 1.6M, October 2009 Wii did 1.5M. The reason I mention that is January usually performs similiar to the previous October.  October 2010 Wii did 721K.  There is no NSMBWii to help boost hardware sales in January 2011.  The price cut wont come 1st qtr.

Then add in competition is more intense then ever for the Wii. No longer is Wii the only Motion based system on the market.  Any price cut Nintendo does will also correspond with price cuts by Microsoft and Sony.  The press and public are talking about Kinect, and the press has written articles about how the Wii is now passe.  All of this points to the Wii selling less and the 360 and PS3 selling more.

Finally with 85 million consoles sold no longer will a software title make any measureable difference to the hardware sales.  Not to mention Vitality Sensor is probably something that has simply been put aside and what it does can be done with Kinect.  How do I mean? Well Kinect can sense how fast you are moving about and can estimate how much effort you would be putting in.  Already titles on Kinect estimate your physical exertion without a device clipped to my finger.