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Forums - Sales - *Prediction__Wii to sell 105 Million End Of 2011!*

thx1139 said:
pachoo5 said:
Immortal said:
pachoo5 said:

I think you are wrong. I don't think Wii even passes 100 million by the end of 2011, selling only about 14.5M units in the year.

My new prediction for total Wii sales worldwide over its lifetime is 118M. I think Wii sales will continue to plummett from here.

Why after a near record holiday season and with $125 (possibly more) of price cuts left would it do that?

I think Wii sales will continue to decline as casuals start buying an almost equally priced Kinect instead of the Wii and current Wii owners upgrade to 360s or PS3s (and former potential Wii owners skip Wii altogether to go 360/PS3).

The Wii has dropped in sales twice in a row:

 

2008 - 23,998,032

2009 - 21,802,884

2010 - 19,137,679

The trend should continue as I believe the casual market continues to get saturated with Wii units. There aren't many potential buyers left IMO. And, the Wii technology is getting pretty long in the tooth (more and more households are going HD and the Wii just doesn't cut it as a true HD experience).

My 2011 prediction for Wii is that the downward trend in sales accelerates and only 14.5M units are sold worldwide.

Dont try to be logical it does no use.

I could come with a good and well though logic that flying unicorns actually exist in Mars too. Just using logic doesn't mean you're smart or that it corresponds to reality.



Above: still the best game of the year.

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Immortal said:
MARCUSDJACKSON said:

im looking at 95m(margine of error 3m up only)

Are you serious?

I don't mean to be rude, but even without a price cut and no software in the year besides what's already announced, Wii will still probably make it past 14m. I don't see why on Earth you'd expect Wii to be in the 10m-13m range. That's all but impossible.

Of course he isn't serious, and there was no reason for you to actually answer it.



Above: still the best game of the year.

thx1139 said:
pachoo5 said:
Immortal said:
pachoo5 said:

I think you are wrong. I don't think Wii even passes 100 million by the end of 2011, selling only about 14.5M units in the year.

My new prediction for total Wii sales worldwide over its lifetime is 118M. I think Wii sales will continue to plummett from here.

Why after a near record holiday season and with $125 (possibly more) of price cuts left would it do that?

I think Wii sales will continue to decline as casuals start buying an almost equally priced Kinect instead of the Wii and current Wii owners upgrade to 360s or PS3s (and former potential Wii owners skip Wii altogether to go 360/PS3).

The Wii has dropped in sales twice in a row:

 

2008 - 23,998,032

2009 - 21,802,884

2010 - 19,137,679

The trend should continue as I believe the casual market continues to get saturated with Wii units. There aren't many potential buyers left IMO. And, the Wii technology is getting pretty long in the tooth (more and more households are going HD and the Wii just doesn't cut it as a true HD experience).

My 2011 prediction for Wii is that the downward trend in sales accelerates and only 14.5M units are sold worldwide.

Dont try to be logical it does no use.

What would you say if your logic is proven wrong next year this time? That Wii sale can not be explained by logic? Just wondering...



MikeB predicts that the PS3 will sell about 140 million units by the end of 2016 and triple the amount of 360s in the long run.

I will post again in this thread after the weekly results come out.  I expect I will be asking now that the Wii is down XXX YoY when is the Wii YoY results going to start going up rather than down.  XXX by the way based on the date the OP said he based his prediction on is already 170,000.



Its libraries that sell systems not a single game.

thx1139 said:

I will post again in this thread after the weekly results come out.  I expect I will be asking now that the Wii is down XXX YoY when is the Wii YoY results going to start going up rather than down.  XXX by the way based on the date the OP said he based his prediction on is already 170,000.

170K...down so far I know but I still expect Wii to sell about 22.1 Million in 2011!



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With the upcoming price cut at E3,  the Wii will hit at least 100 Million worldwide in 2011.



Immortal said:
MARCUSDJACKSON said:

im looking at 95m(margine of error 3m up only)

Are you serious?

I don't mean to be rude, but even without a price cut and no software in the year besides what's already announced, Wii will still probably make it past 14m. I don't see why on Earth you'd expect Wii to be in the 10m-13m range. That's all but impossible.

7th person. i told nintendogamer this would happen. thanks for the tone.

i didn't know the gap was 10m on Nintendo sells and you maybe right. Wii is still a hot item and will be for atlease the next 3 yrs IMO.

and as for the margine i'd be crazy to say 3m down right. its still early in the yr; and there will be time for me to change it, but i don't see a reason to now. this is only month 1 give me 3 and we should see a change, but you must understand and im sure you can agree that theres nothing to gage yet so im stuck with wht i have?

really the gap isn't something i think about when i make predictions.



Beuli2 said:
Immortal said:
MARCUSDJACKSON said:

im looking at 95m(margine of error 3m up only)

Are you serious?

I don't mean to be rude, but even without a price cut and no software in the year besides what's already announced, Wii will still probably make it past 14m. I don't see why on Earth you'd expect Wii to be in the 10m-13m range. That's all but impossible.

Of course he isn't serious, and there was no reason for you to actually answer it.


srry but i am serious for now. i may not have a prediction when all is said and done.



MARCUSDJACKSON said:
Immortal said:
MARCUSDJACKSON said:

im looking at 95m(margine of error 3m up only)

Are you serious?

I don't mean to be rude, but even without a price cut and no software in the year besides what's already announced, Wii will still probably make it past 14m. I don't see why on Earth you'd expect Wii to be in the 10m-13m range. That's all but impossible.

7th person. i told nintendogamer this would happen. thanks for the tone.

i didn't know the gap was 10m on Nintendo sells and you maybe right. Wii is still a hot item and will be for atlease the next 3 yrs IMO.

and as for the margine i'd be crazy to say 3m down right. its still early in the yr; and there will be time for me to change it, but i don't see a reason to now. this is only month 1 give me 3 and we should see a change, but you must understand and im sure you can agree that theres nothing to gage yet so im stuck with wht i have?

really the gap isn't something i think about when i make predictions.

You kinda need to if you wanna make a good prediction, :P.

I wasn't meaning to be hateful, by the way. Was just pointing it out. I agree that it's still too early to say anything for sure and that you might as well wait a few months before changing. Who knows, you could strike a gold mine and Wii could collapse this year. I'd hate that, but you'd have seven people to serve crow to!



 

“These are my principles; if you don’t like them, I have others.” – Groucho Marx

Immortal said:
MARCUSDJACKSON said:
Immortal said:
MARCUSDJACKSON said:

im looking at 95m(margine of error 3m up only)

Are you serious?

I don't mean to be rude, but even without a price cut and no software in the year besides what's already announced, Wii will still probably make it past 14m. I don't see why on Earth you'd expect Wii to be in the 10m-13m range. That's all but impossible.

7th person. i told nintendogamer this would happen. thanks for the tone.

i didn't know the gap was 10m on Nintendo sells and you maybe right. Wii is still a hot item and will be for atlease the next 3 yrs IMO.

and as for the margine i'd be crazy to say 3m down right. its still early in the yr; and there will be time for me to change it, but i don't see a reason to now. this is only month 1 give me 3 and we should see a change, but you must understand and im sure you can agree that theres nothing to gage yet so im stuck with wht i have?

really the gap isn't something i think about when i make predictions.

You kinda need to if you wanna make a good prediction, :P.

I wasn't meaning to be hateful, by the way. Was just pointing it out. I agree that it's still too early to say anything for sure and that you might as well wait a few months before changing. Who knows, you could strike a gold mine and Wii could collapse this year. I'd hate that, but you'd have seven people to serve crow to!

i know you were coming from a cool and calm place and serving crow sounds good but there would be no point cause im sure it would happen again lol. thanks for pointing it out as ur the second person for the Nintendo side of things. so far i've had comments  on all 3. no bother it helps. hey it improved my 2010 predictions and they were mostly spot on up or down margines included. its alway 3m up.(margines with 3m Wii 85m PS3 48m 360 rounded 2m up or down) and nobody new that till now.PS3 is the only console that had 3m down, but that was for the margine for error.

as an old school Nintendo fan i fill the same way. i've played both the xbox and 360 but i've owned every Nintendo and Sony console(sega aswell)

(long live N64)