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Forums - Sales - *Prediction__Wii to sell 105 Million End Of 2011!*

bazmeistergen on 12 January 2011
thx1139 said:
Immortal said:
thx1139 said:

Why after the Wii has had 2 straight years of sales declines you predict the Wii to increase in sales. I believe the Wii will be down 20% YoY.  If you want Wii Vitality Sensor pick up EA SPorts Active and you get your Heart Rate Monitor.

Only one of those years had a price cut, neither of them had a massively successful peripheral (doesn't matter what you say about it, Nintendo's made a ridiculous peripheral successful before, :P) and neither of them had great software support year round.

He expects Wii to get all three things this year and if it does, his prediction is completely reasonable.

Also, why the heck do you expect Wii to be down 20% YOY? It was down 11% and 12% respectively over the past two years and, with a price cut early in the year, it could easily wane that decline somewhat.

In 2010 Nintendo added a 2nd game to the standard packaging. Still month after month the Wii was down YoY compared to 2009.  It took special deals every week (besides 1) for the Wii to only end up like 10% down YoY in NA for the Holidays.  In NA I think it is safe to say that the average price paid for a Wii during the holiday weeks in NA was less than $180.

So in 2011 why down 20%. Well first off why the OP thinks that Wii will do better in the 1st qtr this year compared to last is beyond me.  January 2010 Wii did over 1.6M, October 2009 Wii did 1.5M. The reason I mention that is January usually performs similiar to the previous October.  October 2010 Wii did 721K.  There is no NSMBWii to help boost hardware sales in January 2011.  The price cut wont come 1st qtr.

Then add in competition is more intense then ever for the Wii. No longer is Wii the only Motion based system on the market.  Any price cut Nintendo does will also correspond with price cuts by Microsoft and Sony.  The press and public are talking about Kinect, and the press has written articles about how the Wii is now passe.  All of this points to the Wii selling less and the 360 and PS3 selling more.

Finally with 85 million consoles sold no longer will a software title make any measureable difference to the hardware sales.  Not to mention Vitality Sensor is probably something that has simply been put aside and what it does can be done with Kinect.  How do I mean? Well Kinect can sense how fast you are moving about and can estimate how much effort you would be putting in.  Already titles on Kinect estimate your physical exertion without a device clipped to my finger.


Physical exertion is also metioned by the balance board and software... soooo... the vitality sensor will probably be something else...



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DavidValbu on 12 January 2011

Nintendo must wake up if they want to achieve that mark by the end of the year. They do not bring Fatal Frame 4 to the west, neither Xenoblade.....and now The Last Story again (according to what has recently said Nintendo UK). No news about Zelda Skyward Sword... They are going to be focused on the 3DS....

Definately Nintendo will have to do something if they want to mantain good Wii sales along the year.



thx1139 on 12 January 2011
bazmeistergen said:
thx1139 said:

In 2010 Nintendo added a 2nd game to the standard packaging. Still month after month the Wii was down YoY compared to 2009.  It took special deals every week (besides 1) for the Wii to only end up like 10% down YoY in NA for the Holidays.  In NA I think it is safe to say that the average price paid for a Wii during the holiday weeks in NA was less than $180.

So in 2011 why down 20%. Well first off why the OP thinks that Wii will do better in the 1st qtr this year compared to last is beyond me.  January 2010 Wii did over 1.6M, October 2009 Wii did 1.5M. The reason I mention that is January usually performs similiar to the previous October.  October 2010 Wii did 721K.  There is no NSMBWii to help boost hardware sales in January 2011.  The price cut wont come 1st qtr.

Then add in competition is more intense then ever for the Wii. No longer is Wii the only Motion based system on the market.  Any price cut Nintendo does will also correspond with price cuts by Microsoft and Sony.  The press and public are talking about Kinect, and the press has written articles about how the Wii is now passe.  All of this points to the Wii selling less and the 360 and PS3 selling more.

Finally with 85 million consoles sold no longer will a software title make any measureable difference to the hardware sales.  Not to mention Vitality Sensor is probably something that has simply been put aside and what it does can be done with Kinect.  How do I mean? Well Kinect can sense how fast you are moving about and can estimate how much effort you would be putting in.  Already titles on Kinect estimate your physical exertion without a device clipped to my finger.


Physical exertion is also metioned by the balance board and software... soooo... the vitality sensor will probably be something else...

Correct me if I am wrong.  Vitality Sensor was shown at E3 in 2009 and hasnt been seen since. Why do people even think it is still being worked on? Is there an article somewhere where Nintendo talks about it?



Its libraries that sell systems not a single game.

Kyuubi Ricky SSJ2 on 12 January 2011

It probably will get to the 100 million mark by the end of the year so you could be right plus with the help of Zelda it might just happen.



SnesTea on 12 January 2011
*Sound Of Rain said:
Chibi.V.29 said:
Immortal said:

You do realize that 21.8m would put it at like 106.5m, :P?

Your prediction could be easily blown, though, :P - Nintendo may do even less for software than this year, Vitality Sensor may be 2012 and Wii may not cut price, :P.

If all three of your conditions do take place (which I doubt, xD), then I'd say you're lowballing it.


What exactly is the point in the Vitality Sensor? from what i can see its the most ridicules idea ever xD. What do you race your friend heart beat or something xD

LOL

You will see when the time is right and Nintendo decides to officially show it to the world. Vitality Sensor will be bigger than Kinect!

The question is, did Kinect really change the face of the gaming industry that much?



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bazmeistergen on 13 January 2011
thx1139 said:
bazmeistergen said:
thx1139 said:
 

In 2010 Nintendo added a 2nd game to the standard packaging. Still month after month the Wii was down YoY compared to 2009.  It took special deals every week (besides 1) for the Wii to only end up like 10% down YoY in NA for the Holidays.  In NA I think it is safe to say that the average price paid for a Wii during the holiday weeks in NA was less than $180.

So in 2011 why down 20%. Well first off why the OP thinks that Wii will do better in the 1st qtr this year compared to last is beyond me.  January 2010 Wii did over 1.6M, October 2009 Wii did 1.5M. The reason I mention that is January usually performs similiar to the previous October.  October 2010 Wii did 721K.  There is no NSMBWii to help boost hardware sales in January 2011.  The price cut wont come 1st qtr.

Then add in competition is more intense then ever for the Wii. No longer is Wii the only Motion based system on the market.  Any price cut Nintendo does will also correspond with price cuts by Microsoft and Sony.  The press and public are talking about Kinect, and the press has written articles about how the Wii is now passe.  All of this points to the Wii selling less and the 360 and PS3 selling more.

Finally with 85 million consoles sold no longer will a software title make any measureable difference to the hardware sales.  Not to mention Vitality Sensor is probably something that has simply been put aside and what it does can be done with Kinect.  How do I mean? Well Kinect can sense how fast you are moving about and can estimate how much effort you would be putting in.  Already titles on Kinect estimate your physical exertion without a device clipped to my finger.


Physical exertion is also metioned by the balance board and software... soooo... the vitality sensor will probably be something else...

Correct me if I am wrong.  Vitality Sensor was shown at E3 in 2009 and hasnt been seen since. Why do people even think it is still being worked on? Is there an article somewhere where Nintendo talks about it?


They said E3 wasn't the right place to talk about it last E3. Since then nothing really.



Yes.

www.spacemag.org - contribute your stuff... satire, comics, ideas, debate, stupidy stupid etc.

thx1139 on 13 January 2011
bazmeistergen said:
thx1139 said:
bazmeistergen said:


Physical exertion is also metioned by the balance board and software... soooo... the vitality sensor will probably be something else...

Correct me if I am wrong.  Vitality Sensor was shown at E3 in 2009 and hasnt been seen since. Why do people even think it is still being worked on? Is there an article somewhere where Nintendo talks about it?


They said E3 wasn't the right place to talk about it last E3. Since then nothing really.

So as I suspected. So as of right now Vitality Sensor is something in Nintendo fans dreams that will be the next huge innovation although the only thing ever shown was an 10-15 year old style heart rate monitor.



Its libraries that sell systems not a single game.

*Sound Of Rain on 13 January 2011
thx1139 said:
bazmeistergen said:
thx1139 said:
bazmeistergen said:
 


Physical exertion is also metioned by the balance board and software... soooo... the vitality sensor will probably be something else...

Correct me if I am wrong.  Vitality Sensor was shown at E3 in 2009 and hasnt been seen since. Why do people even think it is still being worked on? Is there an article somewhere where Nintendo talks about it?


They said E3 wasn't the right place to talk about it last E3. Since then nothing really.

So as I suspected. So as of right now Vitality Sensor is something in Nintendo fans dreams that will be the next huge innovation although the only thing ever shown was an 10-15 year old style heart rate monitor.

Actually no, most Nintendo fans hate the V.S LOL...I am one of its only fans.

Also, I have many reasons to believe that the V.S is still coming...you don't seem to know much about the V.S. Click on the link to my thread in my sig.



thx1139 on 13 January 2011
*Sound Of Rain said:
thx1139 said:
bazmeistergen said:


They said E3 wasn't the right place to talk about it last E3. Since then nothing really.

So as I suspected. So as of right now Vitality Sensor is something in Nintendo fans dreams that will be the next huge innovation although the only thing ever shown was an 10-15 year old style heart rate monitor.

Actually no, most Nintendo fans hate the V.S LOL...I am one of its only fans.

Also, I have many reasons to believe that the V.S is still coming...you don't seem to know much about the V.S. Click on the link to my thread in my sig.

That link was a lot to read to basically say that the V.S. is a Heart Rate Monitor.



Its libraries that sell systems not a single game.

bazmeistergen on 13 January 2011
thx1139 said:
bazmeistergen said:
thx1139 said:
bazmeistergen said:
 


Physical exertion is also metioned by the balance board and software... soooo... the vitality sensor will probably be something else...

Correct me if I am wrong.  Vitality Sensor was shown at E3 in 2009 and hasnt been seen since. Why do people even think it is still being worked on? Is there an article somewhere where Nintendo talks about it?


They said E3 wasn't the right place to talk about it last E3. Since then nothing really.

So as I suspected. So as of right now Vitality Sensor is something in Nintendo fans dreams that will be the next huge innovation although the only thing ever shown was an 10-15 year old style heart rate monitor.

We have no idea. The spoke like it still existed. There's clearly another Wii series game coming as it was shown in the Japanese 2011 reel shown at one of Nintendo's conferences towards the end of 2010. People presume it will be Wii Relax or whatever the VS game will be called.



Yes.

www.spacemag.org - contribute your stuff... satire, comics, ideas, debate, stupidy stupid etc.