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Forums - Sales Discussion - I think it's safe to say that kinect will push the 360 above ps3..

Lord N on 12 November 2010
dreamcast210 said:
Reasonable said:
askel50 said:
greenmedic88 said:


I don't believe it will happen in 2011 but if it does, I will propably say something like "oh".

Current sales trends are tracking in a way that have the lead being cut to zero if not by the end of 2011, then sometime early in 2012.

I think you should wait 2 week before start speaking of current trends, let's not forget that xbox outsold ps3 for almost 4 months before move released. And I suspect that the kinect effect will be VASTLY superior to the move one in terms of sales.

 

That aside it's a fact that at the end of this generation you'll either have the hd twins close in second place or, if kinect hits hard, you may have a PS3 distant third. Whatever happens, it will be a success for the xbox brand and a modest result for the playstation brand (taking into account initial expetations and previous generation results).


Neither HD console is likely to end up a distant third.  For starters neither has enough dominance geographically and even with Kinect/Move there's no getting around the fact each - particularly the 360 - has been in the market a while and there are signs we are moving past the software peak for the consoles.

360 dominance is skewed to US/UK while PS3 is stronger EMEA as a whole and Japan.  Neither Kinect nor Move I believe will be successful enough to overturn the current status that much worldwide.  Kinect will be a success and push 360 particularly in US, Move will likely be a success and help PS3 in EMEA.  Move will sell decent enough in US even allowing for Kinect, same with Kinect in EMEA.

Outside of this both have strong third party developer support now plus each has decent exclusives still coming down the pipe.

In short, I think anyone expecting Kinect or Move would tip the scales massively one way or the other will probably be disappointed.  You'd need to see an absolutely unhead of response - and each has enough challenges to prevent this, Move being more of a Wii too and positioned solidly as a peripheral whereas Kinect currently is more expensive and needs more space as well as being incomplete from an interface perspective.

The HD consoles have really been close all along, and any percieved advantage has simply been a short lived period of exceptional sales that is then matched by the other console at a different time.

Fans of both need to realize that apples for apples each HD console is going to end up close worldwide and while there will be a nominal 'winner' it's not going to be any kind of definitive, miles ahead victory on either side.


I appreciate your perspective, but I really think it is wrong. The Kinect effect is going to be big based on what I have experienced and seen so far. You cannot discount the fact that Microsoft marketed the Kinect (and to a lesser extent the redesigned Xbox 360) as a new console. The view of a lot of people will not be that the console has been around for 5 years but rather refreshed and new.

It's much like the Wii did. They simply upgraded the hardware very slightly from the Gamecube. The difference here is that Microsoft is using the same console, which is smart. They have their hardcore base and now a new casual base coming in. They've done what I always felt would be in the best interest of any console and that is making everything compatible for years to come. Releasing a new console starts your install base at zero. Their method keeps them relevent and supported.

It's not a new console, and there's no reason that anyone would perceive it as such.

People making Move and Kinect to be more than what they really are, which are controller add-ons released in the middle of console generation. Never has such a product(Powerglove, Superscope 6, Sega CD, Sega 32x,) ever had any lasting impact much less played any decisive role. The sales of Move and Kinect may look impressive right now, but 1) they were just released, and 2) this is the holiday season when sales of everything go through the roof regardless.

I think we'll find out after the holdiay season that neither Kinect or Move are going to do anything serious. Neither one will ever have a 100% attach rate or the software that allowed the Wiimote to be such a big hit.

 

 



 

Consoles owned: Saturn, Dreamcast, PS1, PS2, PSP, DS, PS3

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Legend11 on 12 November 2010
Eddie_Raja said:

This is all speculation, but no one can say XBOX was a huge success since it has bairly profited MS, while Playstation has always profited sony (Again remember Blue Ray)!

Huh?  The 360 made more money last quarter than the entire Playstation family combined.  Aksi if Blu-Ray is so profitable why didn't Sony make billions in profit the last few years?



NeoRatt on 12 November 2010

The PS3 has no way to beat 360 for the rest of this year starting this week (because of american Kinect launch) or next (Add European Kinect launch).

Kinect hype is epic, and nothing will stop it the rest of the way for this year.  The bigger question's are:

1) Will the hype continue into next year?

2) How big the gap will be for the rest of this year?

GT5 will help the PS3, but because of prologue, and the hype that GT5 was coming out last year, I think most people who were buying the PS3 solely for GT5 have already done so (Remember E3 2009, Sony said GT5 would be a 2009 title). 



hudsoniscool on 12 November 2010
Eddie_Raja said:
askel50 said:
Eddie_Raja said:
askel50 said:
greenmedic88 said:


I don't believe it will happen in 2011 but if it does, I will propably say something like "oh".

Current sales trends are tracking in a way that have the lead being cut to zero if not by the end of 2011, then sometime early in 2012.

think you should wait 2 week before start speaking of current trends, let's not forget that xbox outsold ps3 for almost 4 months before move released. And I suspect that the kinect effect will be VASTLY superior to the move one in terms of sales.

 

That aside it's a fact that at the end of this generation you'll either have the hd twins close in second place or, if kinect hits hard, you may have a PS3 distant third. Whatever happens, it will be a success for the xbox brand and a modest result for the playstation brand (taking into account initial expetations and previous generation results).

Tell me, if 360 comes in 3rd, how is it a success for the xbox brand?  Nintendo almost invented the practical home console and though it came in 3rd with gamecube it made a profit.  SONY came in as the new kid with the PS1 and DOMINATED the competition, then PS2 DOMINATED the competition.  PS3 will be remembered as a little disapointing sales wise, but still the #1 HD console.  XBOX managed to lose MS millions of dollars with its crappy sales, and 360 is bound to come in 3rd place a second time in a row while being remembered as the console that breaks!  Yeah I can see the crowds of people gathering for the XBOX3 while they are remembering just how unreliable xbox's are when they come out. 


Now be good don't try to flamebait me :) You understod very well what I meant. It is not being 1st, 2nd or 3rd that matters. What's important it's how far apart they'll end up to. X360 has a chance to put the ps3 in 3rd place definitively (that means with a margin > 15mln). Microsoft's console it's already in 2nd position by 4mln and with an huge kinect success that can realistically happen. The best PS3 can do, if kinect fails, is to catch up with the 360 by 2012 and maybe have a 2mln vantage by the time a new xbox came out. Whatever happens xbox performed better then most people thought back in 2005-2006 and PS3 performed far worse than most people (including sony) predicted. Xbox wasn't a successful brand last generation, they managed to turn around the gaming division, sold a lot and became also profitable. Can you say the same for the playstation ragarding this past 4 years comparing to the previous 4?

While the PS3 did not perform as well as expected.  I can say it was EASILY a success.  Sony is going to make a boatload off of Blue Ray and if the PS3 passes 360 in 2011 due to Kinect failing, MS will be forced to make a new console soon.  Since PS3 is easily the most powerful console and is capable of full 3D, the nextbox will be up against PS3 for a good 2 years with games that are probably near equal in graphics. 

 

This is all speculation, but no one can say XBOX was a huge success since it has bairly profited MS, while Playstation has always profited sony (Again remember Blue Ray)!


i can say it was easly a failure. i dont call 5 billion in loses a sucess do you. the 360 has been profitable for 3 years and will continue to be for 5 years(estimated time ms stops making 360's).  the ps3 might be profitable but the finacial records continue to show the playstion brand brand loosing money.



Halo MCC will sell 5+ million copies(including digital)

halo 5 will sell 10 million copies(including digital)

x1 will pass ps4 in USA, and UK.

Eddie_Raja on 12 November 2010
hudsoniscool said:
Eddie_Raja said:
askel50 said:
Eddie_Raja said:
askel50 said:
greenmedic88 said:


I don't believe it will happen in 2011 but if it does, I will propably say something like "oh".

Current sales trends are tracking in a way that have the lead being cut to zero if not by the end of 2011, then sometime early in 2012.

think you should wait 2 week before start speaking of current trends, let's not forget that xbox outsold ps3 for almost 4 months before move released. And I suspect that the kinect effect will be VASTLY superior to the move one in terms of sales.

 

That aside it's a fact that at the end of this generation you'll either have the hd twins close in second place or, if kinect hits hard, you may have a PS3 distant third. Whatever happens, it will be a success for the xbox brand and a modest result for the playstation brand (taking into account initial expetations and previous generation results).

Tell me, if 360 comes in 3rd, how is it a success for the xbox brand?  Nintendo almost invented the practical home console and though it came in 3rd with gamecube it made a profit.  SONY came in as the new kid with the PS1 and DOMINATED the competition, then PS2 DOMINATED the competition.  PS3 will be remembered as a little disapointing sales wise, but still the #1 HD console.  XBOX managed to lose MS millions of dollars with its crappy sales, and 360 is bound to come in 3rd place a second time in a row while being remembered as the console that breaks!  Yeah I can see the crowds of people gathering for the XBOX3 while they are remembering just how unreliable xbox's are when they come out. 


Now be good don't try to flamebait me :) You understod very well what I meant. It is not being 1st, 2nd or 3rd that matters. What's important it's how far apart they'll end up to. X360 has a chance to put the ps3 in 3rd place definitively (that means with a margin > 15mln). Microsoft's console it's already in 2nd position by 4mln and with an huge kinect success that can realistically happen. The best PS3 can do, if kinect fails, is to catch up with the 360 by 2012 and maybe have a 2mln vantage by the time a new xbox came out. Whatever happens xbox performed better then most people thought back in 2005-2006 and PS3 performed far worse than most people (including sony) predicted. Xbox wasn't a successful brand last generation, they managed to turn around the gaming division, sold a lot and became also profitable. Can you say the same for the playstation ragarding this past 4 years comparing to the previous 4?

While the PS3 did not perform as well as expected.  I can say it was EASILY a success.  Sony is going to make a boatload off of Blue Ray and if the PS3 passes 360 in 2011 due to Kinect failing, MS will be forced to make a new console soon.  Since PS3 is easily the most powerful console and is capable of full 3D, the nextbox will be up against PS3 for a good 2 years with games that are probably near equal in graphics. 

 

This is all speculation, but no one can say XBOX was a huge success since it has bairly profited MS, while Playstation has always profited sony (Again remember Blue Ray)!


i can say it was easly a failure. i dont call 5 billion in loses a sucess do you. the 360 has been profitable for 3 years and will continue to be for 5 years(estimated time ms stops making 360's).  the ps3 might be profitable but the finacial records continue to show the playstion brand brand loosing money.


For the millionth time, the money SONY is, and will be making in Blue Ray more than make up for it.



Prediction for console Lifetime sales:

Wii:100-120 million, PS3:80-110 million, 360:70-100 million

[Prediction Made 11/5/2009]

3DS: 65m, PSV: 22m, Wii U: 18-22m, PS4: 80-120m, X1: 35-55m

I gauruntee the PS5 comes out after only 5-6 years after the launch of the PS4.

[Prediction Made 6/18/2014]

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hudsoniscool on 12 November 2010
Eddie_Raja said:
hudsoniscool said:
Eddie_Raja said:
askel50 said:
Eddie_Raja said:
askel50 said:
greenmedic88 said:


I don't believe it will happen in 2011 but if it does, I will propably say something like "oh".

Current sales trends are tracking in a way that have the lead being cut to zero if not by the end of 2011, then sometime early in 2012.

think you should wait 2 week before start speaking of current trends, let's not forget that xbox outsold ps3 for almost 4 months before move released. And I suspect that the kinect effect will be VASTLY superior to the move one in terms of sales.

 

That aside it's a fact that at the end of this generation you'll either have the hd twins close in second place or, if kinect hits hard, you may have a PS3 distant third. Whatever happens, it will be a success for the xbox brand and a modest result for the playstation brand (taking into account initial expetations and previous generation results).

Tell me, if 360 comes in 3rd, how is it a success for the xbox brand?  Nintendo almost invented the practical home console and though it came in 3rd with gamecube it made a profit.  SONY came in as the new kid with the PS1 and DOMINATED the competition, then PS2 DOMINATED the competition.  PS3 will be remembered as a little disapointing sales wise, but still the #1 HD console.  XBOX managed to lose MS millions of dollars with its crappy sales, and 360 is bound to come in 3rd place a second time in a row while being remembered as the console that breaks!  Yeah I can see the crowds of people gathering for the XBOX3 while they are remembering just how unreliable xbox's are when they come out. 


Now be good don't try to flamebait me :) You understod very well what I meant. It is not being 1st, 2nd or 3rd that matters. What's important it's how far apart they'll end up to. X360 has a chance to put the ps3 in 3rd place definitively (that means with a margin > 15mln). Microsoft's console it's already in 2nd position by 4mln and with an huge kinect success that can realistically happen. The best PS3 can do, if kinect fails, is to catch up with the 360 by 2012 and maybe have a 2mln vantage by the time a new xbox came out. Whatever happens xbox performed better then most people thought back in 2005-2006 and PS3 performed far worse than most people (including sony) predicted. Xbox wasn't a successful brand last generation, they managed to turn around the gaming division, sold a lot and became also profitable. Can you say the same for the playstation ragarding this past 4 years comparing to the previous 4?

While the PS3 did not perform as well as expected.  I can say it was EASILY a success.  Sony is going to make a boatload off of Blue Ray and if the PS3 passes 360 in 2011 due to Kinect failing, MS will be forced to make a new console soon.  Since PS3 is easily the most powerful console and is capable of full 3D, the nextbox will be up against PS3 for a good 2 years with games that are probably near equal in graphics. 

 

This is all speculation, but no one can say XBOX was a huge success since it has bairly profited MS, while Playstation has always profited sony (Again remember Blue Ray)!


i can say it was easly a failure. i dont call 5 billion in loses a sucess do you. the 360 has been profitable for 3 years and will continue to be for 5 years(estimated time ms stops making 360's).  the ps3 might be profitable but the finacial records continue to show the playstion brand brand loosing money.


For the millionth time, the money SONY is, and will be making in Blue Ray more than make up for it.

your right but u cant say that if ps3 didnt have blue ray that blue ray would have failed. blue-ray is awsome it would have succeded without ps3 so the money blue-ray makes doesnt matter in relation to ps3's massive losses.



Halo MCC will sell 5+ million copies(including digital)

halo 5 will sell 10 million copies(including digital)

x1 will pass ps4 in USA, and UK.

greenmedic88 on 12 November 2010
Reasonable said:


Neither HD console is likely to end up a distant third.  For starters neither has enough dominance geographically and even with Kinect/Move there's no getting around the fact each - particularly the 360 - has been in the market a while and there are signs we are moving past the software peak for the consoles.

360 dominance is skewed to US/UK while PS3 is stronger EMEA as a whole and Japan.  Neither Kinect nor Move I believe will be successful enough to overturn the current status that much worldwide.  Kinect will be a success and push 360 particularly in US, Move will likely be a success and help PS3 in EMEA.  Move will sell decent enough in US even allowing for Kinect, same with Kinect in EMEA.

Outside of this both have strong third party developer support now plus each has decent exclusives still coming down the pipe.

In short, I think anyone expecting Kinect or Move would tip the scales massively one way or the other will probably be disappointed.  You'd need to see an absolutely unhead of response - and each has enough challenges to prevent this, Move being more of a Wii too and positioned solidly as a peripheral whereas Kinect currently is more expensive and needs more space as well as being incomplete from an interface perspective.

The HD consoles have really been close all along, and any percieved advantage has simply been a short lived period of exceptional sales that is then matched by the other console at a different time.

Fans of both need to realize that apples for apples each HD console is going to end up close worldwide and while there will be a nominal 'winner' it's not going to be any kind of definitive, miles ahead victory on either side.

Platform fans just like throwing out that "distant third" label as an intended slight.

In all likelihood, there will be about an even split between the 360 and PS3 unless one goes out of production significantly earlier than the other.

While I'm not trying to throw out any Nostradamus style bomb predictions here, I more or less see the generation ending with something like 40% Wii and about 30% each for the PS3 and 360, give or take a couple percentage points.



Reasonable on 12 November 2010
greenmedic88 said:
Reasonable said:
 


Neither HD console is likely to end up a distant third.  For starters neither has enough dominance geographically and even with Kinect/Move there's no getting around the fact each - particularly the 360 - has been in the market a while and there are signs we are moving past the software peak for the consoles.

360 dominance is skewed to US/UK while PS3 is stronger EMEA as a whole and Japan.  Neither Kinect nor Move I believe will be successful enough to overturn the current status that much worldwide.  Kinect will be a success and push 360 particularly in US, Move will likely be a success and help PS3 in EMEA.  Move will sell decent enough in US even allowing for Kinect, same with Kinect in EMEA.

Outside of this both have strong third party developer support now plus each has decent exclusives still coming down the pipe.

In short, I think anyone expecting Kinect or Move would tip the scales massively one way or the other will probably be disappointed.  You'd need to see an absolutely unhead of response - and each has enough challenges to prevent this, Move being more of a Wii too and positioned solidly as a peripheral whereas Kinect currently is more expensive and needs more space as well as being incomplete from an interface perspective.

The HD consoles have really been close all along, and any percieved advantage has simply been a short lived period of exceptional sales that is then matched by the other console at a different time.

Fans of both need to realize that apples for apples each HD console is going to end up close worldwide and while there will be a nominal 'winner' it's not going to be any kind of definitive, miles ahead victory on either side.

Platform fans just like throwing out that "distant third" label as an intended slight.

In all likelihood, there will be about an even split between the 360 and PS3 unless one goes out of production significantly earlier than the other.

While I'm not trying to throw out any Nostradamus style bomb predictions here, I more or less see the generation ending with something like 40% Wii and about 30% each for the PS3 and 360, give or take a couple percentage points.

That sounds very plausible.  I also think PS3/360 are going to finish very close in the end, with one only slightly ahead of the other.



Try to be reasonable... its easier than you think...

mr_capello on 14 November 2010

just wanted to say that I don't have the impression , that kinect does the same to germany as it does to the us



Yuyyder on 14 November 2010

I would actually say its safe that the GT5 launch will push Xbox to last place in this race.. sadly but true.. wait, more like yippie!!