I think it's safe to say that kinect will push the 360 above ps3..

[NeoRatt]

The PS3 has no way to beat 360 for the rest of this year starting this week (because of american Kinect launch) or next (Add European Kinect launch).

Kinect hype is epic, and nothing will stop it the rest of the way for this year.  The bigger question's are:

1) Will the hype continue into next year?

2) How big the gap will be for the rest of this year?

GT5 will help the PS3, but because of prologue, and the hype that GT5 was coming out last year, I think most people who were buying the PS3 solely for GT5 have already done so (Remember E3 2009, Sony said GT5 would be a 2009 title).