Neither HD console is likely to end up a distant third.  For starters neither has enough dominance geographically and even with Kinect/Move there's no getting around the fact each - particularly the 360 - has been in the market a while and there are signs we are moving past the software peak for the consoles.

360 dominance is skewed to US/UK while PS3 is stronger EMEA as a whole and Japan.  Neither Kinect nor Move I believe will be successful enough to overturn the current status that much worldwide.  Kinect will be a success and push 360 particularly in US, Move will likely be a success and help PS3 in EMEA.  Move will sell decent enough in US even allowing for Kinect, same with Kinect in EMEA.

Outside of this both have strong third party developer support now plus each has decent exclusives still coming down the pipe.

In short, I think anyone expecting Kinect or Move would tip the scales massively one way or the other will probably be disappointed.  You'd need to see an absolutely unhead of response - and each has enough challenges to prevent this, Move being more of a Wii too and positioned solidly as a peripheral whereas Kinect currently is more expensive and needs more space as well as being incomplete from an interface perspective.

The HD consoles have really been close all along, and any percieved advantage has simply been a short lived period of exceptional sales that is then matched by the other console at a different time.

Fans of both need to realize that apples for apples each HD console is going to end up close worldwide and while there will be a nominal 'winner' it's not going to be any kind of definitive, miles ahead victory on either side.

Based on the strong demand, the 5miln shipping figure and the greenberg's comments, I have the feeling that it will put the x360 in the first place for this holiday season and the start of 2011. After that it will depend on software support.

it will and it will finally cement 360 over ps3 for good

I appreciate your perspective, but I really think it is wrong. The Kinect effect is going to be big based on what I have experienced and seen so far. You cannot discount the fact that Microsoft marketed the Kinect (and to a lesser extent the redesigned Xbox 360) as a new console. The view of a lot of people will not be that the console has been around for 5 years but rather refreshed and new.

It's much like the Wii did. They simply upgraded the hardware very slightly from the Gamecube. The difference here is that Microsoft is using the same console, which is smart. They have their hardcore base and now a new casual base coming in. They've done what I always felt would be in the best interest of any console and that is making everything compatible for years to come. Releasing a new console starts your install base at zero. Their method keeps them relevent and supported.

This holiday season. Look, Kinect sold 500k in america in 3 days. I don't believe move has even reached those numbers in america. If move can boost the ps3 the way it has been, kinect should smash those numbers don't you think? With black ops bundle, timed black ops exclusive content etc. The 360 should be at top this holiday don't you think?

ps I dont think gt5 will give the ps3 more than 100k boost because most gt lovers got ps3 for gt5p no? I could be wrong there we'll see i guess.

I think you should wait 2 week before start speaking of current trends, let's not forget that xbox outsold ps3 for almost 4 months before move released. And I suspect that the kinect effect will be VASTLY superior to the move one in terms of sales.

That aside it's a fact that at the end of this generation you'll either have the hd twins close in second place or, if kinect hits hard, you may have a PS3 distant third. Whatever happens, it will be a success for the xbox brand and a modest result for the playstation brand (taking into account initial expetations and previous generation results).

Tell me, if 360 comes in 3rd, how is it a success for the xbox brand?  Nintendo almost invented the practical home console and though it came in 3rd with gamecube it made a profit.  SONY came in as the new kid with the PS1 and DOMINATED the competition, then PS2 DOMINATED the competition.  PS3 will be remembered as a little disapointing sales wise, but still the #1 HD console.  XBOX managed to lose MS millions of dollars with its crappy sales, and 360 is bound to come in 3rd place a second time in a row while being remembered as the console that breaks!  Yeah I can see the crowds of people gathering for the XBOX3 while they are remembering just how unreliable xbox's are when they come out. 

I appreciate your perspective, but I really think it is wrong. The Kinect effect is going to be big based on what I have experienced and seen so far. You cannot discount the fact that Microsoft marketed the Kinect (and to a lesser extent the redesigned Xbox 360) as a new console. The view of a lot of people will not be that the console has been around for 5 years but rather refreshed and new.

It's much like the Wii did. They simply upgraded the hardware very slightly from the Gamecube. The difference here is that Microsoft is using the same console, which is smart. They have their hardcore base and now a new casual base coming in. They've done what I always felt would be in the best interest of any console and that is making everything compatible for years to come. Releasing a new console starts your install base at zero. Their method keeps them relevent and supported.

Now be good don't try to flamebait me :) You understod very well what I meant. It is not being 1st, 2nd or 3rd that matters. What's important it's how far apart they'll end up to. X360 has a chance to put the ps3 in 3rd place definitively (that means with a margin > 15mln). Microsoft's console it's already in 2nd position by 4mln and with an huge kinect success that can realistically happen. The best PS3 can do, if kinect fails, is to catch up with the 360 by 2012 and maybe have a 2mln vantage by the time a new xbox came out. Whatever happens xbox performed better then most people thought back in 2005-2006 and PS3 performed far worse than most people (including sony) predicted. Xbox wasn't a successful brand last generation, they managed to turn around the gaming division, sold a lot and became also profitable. Can you say the same for the playstation ragarding this past 4 years comparing to the previous 4?