dreamcast210 said:
Reasonable said:
askel50 said:
greenmedic88 said:
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I don't believe it will happen in 2011 but if it does, I will propably say something like "oh".
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Current sales trends are tracking in a way that have the lead being cut to zero if not by the end of 2011, then sometime early in 2012.
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I think you should wait 2 week before start speaking of current trends, let's not forget that xbox outsold ps3 for almost 4 months before move released. And I suspect that the kinect effect will be VASTLY superior to the move one in terms of sales.
That aside it's a fact that at the end of this generation you'll either have the hd twins close in second place or, if kinect hits hard, you may have a PS3 distant third. Whatever happens, it will be a success for the xbox brand and a modest result for the playstation brand (taking into account initial expetations and previous generation results).
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Neither HD console is likely to end up a distant third. For starters neither has enough dominance geographically and even with Kinect/Move there's no getting around the fact each - particularly the 360 - has been in the market a while and there are signs we are moving past the software peak for the consoles.
360 dominance is skewed to US/UK while PS3 is stronger EMEA as a whole and Japan. Neither Kinect nor Move I believe will be successful enough to overturn the current status that much worldwide. Kinect will be a success and push 360 particularly in US, Move will likely be a success and help PS3 in EMEA. Move will sell decent enough in US even allowing for Kinect, same with Kinect in EMEA.
Outside of this both have strong third party developer support now plus each has decent exclusives still coming down the pipe.
In short, I think anyone expecting Kinect or Move would tip the scales massively one way or the other will probably be disappointed. You'd need to see an absolutely unhead of response - and each has enough challenges to prevent this, Move being more of a Wii too and positioned solidly as a peripheral whereas Kinect currently is more expensive and needs more space as well as being incomplete from an interface perspective.
The HD consoles have really been close all along, and any percieved advantage has simply been a short lived period of exceptional sales that is then matched by the other console at a different time.
Fans of both need to realize that apples for apples each HD console is going to end up close worldwide and while there will be a nominal 'winner' it's not going to be any kind of definitive, miles ahead victory on either side.
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I appreciate your perspective, but I really think it is wrong. The Kinect effect is going to be big based on what I have experienced and seen so far. You cannot discount the fact that Microsoft marketed the Kinect (and to a lesser extent the redesigned Xbox 360) as a new console. The view of a lot of people will not be that the console has been around for 5 years but rather refreshed and new.
It's much like the Wii did. They simply upgraded the hardware very slightly from the Gamecube. The difference here is that Microsoft is using the same console, which is smart. They have their hardcore base and now a new casual base coming in. They've done what I always felt would be in the best interest of any console and that is making everything compatible for years to come. Releasing a new console starts your install base at zero. Their method keeps them relevent and supported.
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It's not a new console, and there's no reason that anyone would perceive it as such.
People making Move and Kinect to be more than what they really are, which are controller add-ons released in the middle of console generation. Never has such a product(Powerglove, Superscope 6, Sega CD, Sega 32x,) ever had any lasting impact much less played any decisive role. The sales of Move and Kinect may look impressive right now, but 1) they were just released, and 2) this is the holiday season when sales of everything go through the roof regardless.
I think we'll find out after the holdiay season that neither Kinect or Move are going to do anything serious. Neither one will ever have a 100% attach rate or the software that allowed the Wiimote to be such a big hit.
Consoles owned: Saturn, Dreamcast, PS1, PS2, PSP, DS, PS3
