Reasonable said:
Neither HD console is likely to end up a distant third. For starters neither has enough dominance geographically and even with Kinect/Move there's no getting around the fact each - particularly the 360 - has been in the market a while and there are signs we are moving past the software peak for the consoles.
360 dominance is skewed to US/UK while PS3 is stronger EMEA as a whole and Japan. Neither Kinect nor Move I believe will be successful enough to overturn the current status that much worldwide. Kinect will be a success and push 360 particularly in US, Move will likely be a success and help PS3 in EMEA. Move will sell decent enough in US even allowing for Kinect, same with Kinect in EMEA.
Outside of this both have strong third party developer support now plus each has decent exclusives still coming down the pipe.
In short, I think anyone expecting Kinect or Move would tip the scales massively one way or the other will probably be disappointed. You'd need to see an absolutely unhead of response - and each has enough challenges to prevent this, Move being more of a Wii too and positioned solidly as a peripheral whereas Kinect currently is more expensive and needs more space as well as being incomplete from an interface perspective.
The HD consoles have really been close all along, and any percieved advantage has simply been a short lived period of exceptional sales that is then matched by the other console at a different time.
Fans of both need to realize that apples for apples each HD console is going to end up close worldwide and while there will be a nominal 'winner' it's not going to be any kind of definitive, miles ahead victory on either side.
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