On hardware? Probably 10 million units sold at 149.99 factoring in manufacturers cost. This is a pure guesstimate...

On software? Considering titles are 49.99 and are probably not very expensive to develop, I'd say the thing breaks even for MS in 6 months.

God I hope this thing flops like crazy a billion dollars on marketing combined with the crazy RD costs. At this rate Kinect better sell 10 million units at a hefty profit to make that cheddar back. 

I don't think Kinect will outsell Move this year but its user base should be higher since a person could buy 4 move controllers to just 1 Kinect. Plus it is already 2 million units behind but I guess if that much money can't sell the system nothing can.

Well considering Sony did not make a dime on the PS3 until 4 years in to production, I think MS is in a much better position with Kinect than Sony was with the PS3.

They have made a low cost, pretty nifty and interesting tech device which can capture casual users and their imagination very easily.  Kinect is a much smaller risk and Microsoft will be laughing to the bank within 6 months.

Now I probably won't use it much until they release some good games for it...but its easy to spot a hit product. I didn't like the last Britney Spears record, but I could tell it will be a hit with the masses.

wow

Microsoft is just like the Soviet Union or Mordor would be in a war. No matter how much you hurt them, they always have more, and they will attack with wave after wave until the enemy breaks.

This just goes to show that Microsoft is still willing to throw a lot of money at the Xbox 360.  It's still a shocking amount considering Microsoft could have used that money to fund at least 20 AAA titles.

Thats not how business works.  It's not like if they didn't spend this marketing money on Kinect that it would get funneled into the game budgets, it would get moved to marketing a different product. 

Sony and Nintendo should actually be thanking Microsoft, the entire industry is down right now.  All this money is bringing focus to the entire video game industry in the grand scheme.  By targetting non-traditional gamers they are exposing a lot more people to the genre, even more than were already enticed by the Wii.  Some of those people will spill over into looking at the competing products.

Wow.

Really? So how many units to sell to break even now?

Here I thought MS was starting to finally care about profits. Everything has been profitable for MS over the last few years with the 360, and now this?

With rumors that Kinect costs as much as 2 billion to develop add in another half billion to market and that it supposedly costs 150 to manufacture. That means every Kinect will sell at a slight loss when you consider the development costs for Kinect Adventures. Therefore, they will need to sell a lot of games to make up that kind of expense. I just don't see that happening in 6 months. This was built to be included on the next XBOX console, which is where it will finally make its money back. 

I find that funny.