The hardware sales on a weekly basis and a monthly basis are getting closer, but its not like this is unprecedented. If you look back at 2004 data in the USA for instance Xbox and GC both sold about on par with PS2 over Christmas...and they combined to outsell PS2 in a fair number of months in 2003-2004. The problem is when you have two companies maintaining one "market", the HD software market, and one company maintaning the other half of the market the likelihood is that the 50% shared by the smaller players will dry up first as neither company is making as much as the big guy and has to move quickly when their share begins shrinking.

Microsoft and Sony have also had two "real" price cuts each for their systems (in 2007 and 2008 for Microsoft, and in 2007 and 2009 for Sony) while Nintendo has had one (in 2009). Effectively speaking, the current hardware situation is based on four price drops vs one price drop. Whereas X360 and PS3 cost as much as $1000 together, they now cost $500 together. Wii simply went from $250 to $200.

There is no way PS3 or X360 will top Wii in Nov-Dec 2010. PS3 and Wii should be down in Japan - no Slim, no NSMB, no FFXIII, and probably no price cuts. I'm not sure how big Gran Turismo 5 will be worldwide frankly - the realistic racing market has been kind of horrible lately, some of EA's older Need for Speed games outsold Gran Turismo on PSP I believe. Moreover, I don't really see a killer app in 2010 for Move or Kinect. These devices are effectively launching with products like Just Dance and Wii Sports four years after the Wii at a higher price and with fewer games. You'll be able to spend $300 over Christmas and buy a Wii and four games (Wii Sports, Wii Sports Resort, and two others), or you can buy a PS3 Slim without any games, or you can buy X360 with Kinect and a game. People are going to see that as favoring the Wii. Leo J claims in the opening post that the Wii pricing advantage is gone - it is on the "people looking for a new console" front, but it is definitely still in place on the "people looking for a motion control console" front. Even current X360 and PS3 owners can buy a Wii with its two games for$200 and get more content than buying Move stuff $100-$180 with one game or Kinect $150 with one game.

For existing PS3 / X360 owners consider Motion Devices Its effectively: motion control interface new console two games for $200 or motion control interface 1 game for $150 or motion control interface (if i've already spent $200-$400 at some point for the box) or 1 game Camera Controller Wand for $180 (if I've already spent $300-$600 on the box). Its not like motion games are really enhanced by graphics on PS3 / X360 when you look at whats releasing in 2010 - so I think you have to recognize that its only a very small segment of prospective Wii owners who will choose PS3 / X360 over Wii.

Once the X360 settles back down, we'll have X360 and PS3 at 55-75% of Wii sales per week until Christmas lifts begin / Nintendo / third party big-guns arrive. You should all watch Donkey Kong Country - that sucker did 4m on SNES in 1994 just in the USA if you go by newspaper articles from that era, with a base roughly half the size of Wii. Odds are Wii could be almost matched by X360 & PS3 combined over Christmas at current rates - so I'm expecting a small price drop for Wii to kick up sales 20-40% - but its not like Nintendo has much to worry about Wii is historically expensive for a system with a base of its size. By the fifth PS2 Christmas (Dec 2004) in the USA, Sony had already introduced the PS2 Slim and cut the price by 50%. Nintendo hasn't done either - but the thing is already a year ahead of PS2 in the USA and so price drops should allow Wii to keep fending off X360 and PS3 individually through at least 2011 in the USA. In Japan - Microsoft is essentially irrelevant and won't have much support from consumers for Kinect and the Wii motion control market for software has proven quite small which doesn't bode real well for Move. Can't see either lighting the world on fire over there particularly with the 3DS likely to suck out the air of the market.  In Europe, the Eye Toy was pretty successful - over 20m - but I can't imagine the PS2 users with it would understand the hype behind Kinect. The Move probably will help in some of the stronger Sony countries - like Spain - but the small base and more expensive tech will hurt it in 2010. PS3 is only 20-30% off the PS2 pace in Europe anyway - Move should help maintain that but its not a big deal until 2011 at least.

Come 2011, we'll probably start hearing about next gen hardware (as stuff about 3DS / PSP2 started leaking in late 2009) and so my guess is if Move begins sticking in Europe and Kinect begins sticking in America (say 5m for each in those regions ltd by Dec 2011), Nintendo will be ready to with some new console info (either a release or announcement) to become the new generation motion-king, probably with some kind of new interaction between player and game. Sony and Microsoft will then have to announce their machines too, as they won't want the 100m Wii owners of 2011/2012 to mostly move to Wii 2.

could happen, i think wii's sales will be down, but who knows what games nintendo will release next year. the 360 and the ps3 sales it seems will do just fine next year and that makes me very happy.

after thinking it deeply: 360, maybe

ps3, not a chance

So is my prediction so bad now! har har!

You could certainly point at this week and make that statement, but i'm entirely uncertain as to what drove PS3 sales to match DS in Japan this week. 360's still riding on new model strength (though i'll grant it lasted longer than i thought it would).

And now we know that NBA Jam can only possibly be a system seller on Wii, if it's going to be a system seller anywhere. The stunt EA's pulling with it on PS3/360 isn't going to help move consoles. Hell, it isn't even going to help move copies of Elite '11

BS3 and the White PS3 model.

It took PS3 a white edition in Japan to do this.

Something it won't have every week.

So this doesn't mean your prediction is a set deal.

Though if PS3 was $199 it would be.

Well this week had nothing to do with my prediction, but if a simple white colored ps3 can do this.. what do you think the PS move will do?

Not that much.

I mean I don't know, it depends on SONY's marketing

I bump this thread because I expect my prediction to come true..

THe ps move has launched to an estimated 140K in 4 days world wide according to VGC (2 days in the U.S), I suspect the hardware should stay above 50k a week for a while until next year..

so I expect the move games to have legs.. as not many games are expected to release till the end of the year, maybe 10-15.

Other than that.. Wii hardware continues to drop, the PS3 hardware should remain the same or rise a bit come next week's numbers, as the ps3 move effect would have been established for an entire week's worth of a boost.

Wii could drop down to around 125K-130K

While ps3 could stay around 135-145K

Allowing it to ousell the Wii once more world wide.. I suspect japan is going to be sony's main target with move, and based on what I've seen in terms of advertising/launch, it's more than likely. I expect the ps3 to take japan with move and GT5 releasing..

FF 14 could push more consoles than I expect as well, and I think that releases in december for ps3?

We'll see.. all I know is japan is ps3's potential market to truely take on the wii, while it does alright elsewhere..