Donkey Kong, Wii Party, and NBA Jam are all being underestimated here. All three of those have the potential to be huge in North America, especially as hardware movers (given that we haven't seen the likes of anything similar to the kind of appeal of DK or Jam, and Wii Party looks very good for what its trying to be) while Wii Party hasn't been doing much in Japan so far, but we'll see about it's appeal elsewhere

Last Story should be of significant help in Japan, at least to fend off the PS3 in the short term, though they'll probably continue their square dance of top-spot tradeoffs.

Move and Kinect are being severely severely overestimated. People who think that they've stolen the spotlight are thinking technologically, which has proven to be the false line of thinking countless times this generation.

PS3 and 360 have a chance, although a small one.

If games like The Last Story push Japan sales and DKCR for Western sales, the Wii will be far ahead.

Leo, either accept or reject my bet offer, man, don't just leave me hanging

The PS3 and 360 have no chance of outselling the Wii for the holidays as I see it but they may very well outsell it for most of 2011 if things keep on going this way, it depends on a multitude of factors though and its still not very likely in my opinion.

After reading your prediction and not reading any comments, few things come into my mind.

You will get flamed a lot.

Someone rambles about incumbetents.

And last but not least, I agree with your prediction.

Considering the Wii had quite a software drought in 2010 so far and a lot of hardware moving games will be released in the second half of 2010 I doubt Wii sales will keep decreasing. Especially Donkey Kong and Wii Party should move a lot of Wii consoles.

The PS3 continues to be up year over year but that's mainly because of the great numbers it put out early in the year. I doubt the PS3 can beat its last holiday sales without a price cut and I don't expect Sony to drop the price any further considering they are making money with the hardware now.

I don't want to make any Xbox360 predictions but obviously the sales will keep decreasing slowly as the effect of the new model starts to fade off, that's just normal in any business.

So yeah the HD consoles will swap places, the PS3 should be down and the Xbxo360 should be up compared to the last holiday season. Kinect and Move shouldn't really affect their core customers in the holiday season.

And yeah I still don't get why people think customers will go crazy for Kinect or Move. Basically they make each system 100$ more expensive, are targeted at people who would much rather buy a Wii because the Wii has the games already and that's what you buy a console - the games. Who cares if Move and Knect are "more precise" if there aren't any games worth playing? Somehow people seem to think the "lol casual gamers" are so stupid they'll buy anything that has motion controls but at the same time they expect them to buy the system that is "technically more advanced"? Really?

Compared to last year Wii and PS3 will be down during the holidays and the Xbox360 will be up but I don't see either HD console outselling the Wii at this point.

Not this year, not at those prices. Drop the prices (of both consoles) and it's a different story. As long as Wii doesn't drop to $150; which I bet it could and still make a [small] profit per console.

People in general for all consoles are overestimating the impact games will have in moving consoles out the store. We are over 4 years in this console cicle by now back catalogue is much more important than new games for new buyers.

Wii party, DK, GT5 AND Halo will move some consoles but not enough to make an impact that lasts over a week, price cuts is way more important at this stage especially for the HD twins,  has i dont see a Wii price cut having that big of an impact at this stage, because price was never a factor against buying a Wii, as opposed to the 360 and especially the ps3

Yea and the last time i was banned before my last one it was for no reason at all.. I wonder who banned me..

On topic:

NBA JAM may release on PSN and XBL AS ENHANCED EXPERIENCES. As for wii party, that should sell quite a bit, it's iteraly mariy party with miis from what I've seen. Also PS MOVE is very much a superior to device than anything the wii motion plus can put out.. and if most of the wii's "exclusive" 3rd party games decide to jump ship and become HD/ENHANCED, what's the point of getting a wii then? Move has the oppurtunity to take a huge amount of sales off the wii. Kinect is another one that hasn't even been added into the situation.

As for the "LAST STORY WILL PUSH THE WII WELL AHEAD" that's ridicoulous, if MONSTER HUNTER TRI couldn't do it, that new ip most certainly wont do anything.

I did for spamming  

BTW I know this might be just another attention thread but taking it serious for a moment, everyone is taking Move, Kinect, and some Wii games as bigger "system sellers" than they actually are... that's it from me on that subject