Considering the Wii had quite a software drought in 2010 so far and a lot of hardware moving games will be released in the second half of 2010 I doubt Wii sales will keep decreasing. Especially Donkey Kong and Wii Party should move a lot of Wii consoles.
The PS3 continues to be up year over year but that's mainly because of the great numbers it put out early in the year. I doubt the PS3 can beat its last holiday sales without a price cut and I don't expect Sony to drop the price any further considering they are making money with the hardware now.
I don't want to make any Xbox360 predictions but obviously the sales will keep decreasing slowly as the effect of the new model starts to fade off, that's just normal in any business.
So yeah the HD consoles will swap places, the PS3 should be down and the Xbxo360 should be up compared to the last holiday season. Kinect and Move shouldn't really affect their core customers in the holiday season.
And yeah I still don't get why people think customers will go crazy for Kinect or Move. Basically they make each system 100$ more expensive, are targeted at people who would much rather buy a Wii because the Wii has the games already and that's what you buy a console - the games. Who cares if Move and Knect are "more precise" if there aren't any games worth playing? Somehow people seem to think the "lol casual gamers" are so stupid they'll buy anything that has motion controls but at the same time they expect them to buy the system that is "technically more advanced"? Really? 
Compared to last year Wii and PS3 will be down during the holidays and the Xbox360 will be up but I don't see either HD console outselling the Wii at this point.
