We are nearing the end of this generation. We maybe have one more full year of steady sales before all three consoles start rolling down the hill. Even if the PS3 is on the market a year longer, it won't be selling at the rate it is now. There's no evidence that the Xbox 360 will die earlier than the PS3 since it's holding strong too. Besides that, once the next generations starts nobody will care about the PS3, Xbox 360 and Wii anymore.

Ah OPer glad to see someone with some logics for once. Everyone knows PS3 will never take the lead. Too many fanboys are jsut to afraid to admit such a thing.  For every loss of install base that Sony does to Microsoft they always turn around and do it right back and with a 5 million  lead worldwide that lead will not go anywhere anytime soon. Sony fans need to just be thankful that they are so close with Microsoft. It does make competition much more fun for those os us that are fans of either Microsoft or Sony. So just sit back, enjoy the ride and just play games on the system of your choice while sipping on some nice Brandy. Cheers! :D

Thats a little of a harsh comment, regardless do you really think Gran Turismo 5 is going to put PS3 above 360 sales during the same timeframe when Kinect and Call of duy come out? It's possible to see a temporary jump due to a Gran Turismo 5 bundle, and in 2011 it's anyones guess, but this fall Microsoft will have peak sales. Sony only outsold the 360 last fall due to the popularity of the PS3 Slim, and now thats over.

Even if the PS3 somehow against all odds outsells the 360, even by just a million units, thats still an epic fail for a Playstation brand console, and you know because of that Sony is going to make a really awesome PS4, with a really awesome software line-up. Same with MS, and this competition will make gaming that much better.

I agree with the last statement, and to a degree the first, but absolutly not the second. Just like kain said, there is no evidence to support the fact that the 360 is going to phase out before the PS3. It depends on how you look at the evidence. PS3's peak sales were in 2009 (with the PS3 Slim release it sold 12.59 mil), but the 360 on the other hand is very likely to have it's peak sales this year (with the 360 Slim, the past record was 11.01 mil in 2008). So if 360 sales followed the traditional bell curve, with a tail, it's peak sales would be later then PS3's and since it came out before the PS3, that would imply that it has two more years on the market over the PS3. However, what is likely happening is that the 360's natural peak was in 2008, but it gets a second peak in 2010 due to the Slim. So where PS3 launched the Slim during peak PS3 popularity (and thus closing the gap to 5 million), Microsoft is releasing the Slim later into it's life, thus giving the console a wider range of high sales.

Anyway, if I get too technical, people will ignore my comment due to a lack of comprehension, so I will leave it at this; the PS3 could outsell the 360, but it would need some sort of an unnatural boast, something more then just a big game can do, something like the crazy 10 psp game with a PSP Go bundle, but if they do that so will Microsoft, and well thus Sony will not sell more PS3's then 360's. No matter what Sony does, Microsoft generates more profit off the 360 per console, and has deeper pockets, so Microsoft will counter everything Sony does, even the Slim!

Also, it's an interesting coment to make about the PS2 still selling well, however, it's the Wii, and not the PS3 that has a sale curve that is most similar to the PS2 sale curve. So expect Wii's to keep selling well even in 2015. PS3, and 360 are more likely to immitate Gamecube and X-Box 1 sales, which died off very quickly.

Actually, PS3 sales follow PSP sales extremely closely, so just look at the PSP, and that should be what PS3 sales will be like in 2 years. Honestly look at the sales graph with aligned launches, they are selling almost exactly as well.

The 360 is just selling unusually because since 2007 it's experienced a steady volume of sales, no bell curve pattern, which is unusual, and hard to directly compare with any other console.

My opinion, as a gamer, just like everyone here (I doubt anyone here is a professional analyst), is MW2 will be the only game to break 10 million, but it won't happen until sometime next year.

Gran Turismo 5 is the next most likely contender, however because a typical Gran Turismo game sells a touch over 10 million, I think GT5 will fall short. The game largly appeals to casual gamers, and if say even only 50% of game sales are to more casual gamers, since hte PS3 is only half as popular, that should max GT5 out at 7.5 million. The Market is also over-saturated, Forza 3 is a significant;y better racing title then Forza 2, and yet it's selling worse. Not much worse, but worse. Also the PS3 is not really a console for racing entusiasts, the 360 is. Sony has a couple racing exclusive titles, but nothing with a rating above 7/10 (Thinking about Ferrari Challenge and F1 right now), where the 360 has Forza, Project Gotham, and early 360 HD exclusives (games that appeared on the PS2). There are also a lot of multiplatform titles, but my point is that Sony no longer holds dominance over hardcore racers, and a lot of prior Sony owners (who switched to Microsoft), don't have a PS3 anymore, or simply prefer Forza. This is the same reason why GTA IV on the PS3 sold only 60% as well as GTA III, the worst selling PS2 GTA. I know GTA is multiconsole, where Gran Turismo is not, and I know Gran Turismo will sell well, I'm just saying it will sell less then a typical Gran Turismo title, and thus fall short of 10 million. Maybe not by much, but there is more reason to beleive it won't cross 10 million then it will.

As for Sports Champions, I just don't see the Move taking off. Yes it's included in every Move bundle, but you can still get the Move controller, and PS Eye without sports champions for $10 cheaper, and if the game gets a low rating such at 7/10, Sony may stop bundling the Move with that game, and switch to something else (like Eye Pet). The console bundle is $400, and no matter what you say that is a lot more money then the compeditors. Yes it's a stand-alone console that does what the Wii and 360 do, but it's motion control library is not as innovative, or expansive as the Wii library, and I feel anyone with $400 to spend, who knows something about gaming already owns a console.

I talk to people, Wii owners, 360 owners, PS3 owners, multiconsole owners. A lot of people feel both the Kinect/Move are a gimmick, some people are nuts about Kinect, and I do know a guy who wants to buy Move solely to play Killzone 3 with Motion. However the only person I know interested in a Move already owns a PS3 and a Wii, and he spends at least $500 a year on games, plus any new consoles/peripherals.

So in conclusion about Move, I beleive that it's only going to appeal to hardcore gamers, and sell a total of less then 10 million units in PS3 lifetime to begin with. It may otsell 10 million units, but I think a large fraction of PS3/360 owners bought the console without any care about motion gaming, and mainly because the Wii is $200, I just don't see Move taking off. Kinect I see taking off because it's getting more hype from analysts, more pre-orders, and is not an exact copy of a Wii controller with giant lightbulbs on top.

Thats may opinion, and blast me for using the word opinion, but your no industry analyst yourself. You don't have to agree with me, but at least respond with something more then "your wrong because I say so." If you don't agree with me fine, just say so and leave it at that. If you want to explain why you disagree, fine go right ahead. PostOfficeBuddy did and I had a very rational conversation with him. Just don't make silly comments saying "How can PS3 NOT outsell the 360 this fall?!?! It's sooo much better of a console," and not say why.

P.S. Gamewise, PS3 and 360 get a large portion of their great games from multiplatform titles. There are more multiplatform 9/10 or higher games then their are exclusives. Gamewise, there is no significant difference between the two, thats why I said that when we were talking about a $400 PS3 MOVE bundle versus a Wii and 360, that there is no reason to beleive PS3 is any better or worse then a 360.

It's just a matter of preference. This generation I find myself a big Gears, Halo, Mass Effect, and Forza Fan, thats why I like the 360. Fable, Left 4 Dead, PGR, are also great games. I also bought the 360 earlier, and multiplatform titles are cheaper on the 360 (used and a little old, I typically don't buy a game until it starts to sell for under $40). So thats why I own so many more 360 titles then I do PS3. However I still love Heavy Rain, and I can easily see people prefering the PS3 over the 360 if they prefer games like God of War, Gran Turismo, Uncharted, LBP, Resistance, Killzone, etc.

Also so many of my favorite games are multiplatform now, Fallout, Batman, Call of Duty, Oblivion, Grand Theift Auto, Assassin's Creed, Resident Evil 5, Final Fantasy (but Lost Odyssey is better), The Orange Box, Bioshock, Battlefield, etc. It's just a matter of preference between consoles, so please stop being so errogant, and come to the realization that on a game level PS3 and 360 are similar, but different. Thats why they are compeditors.

Exactly the same reason OP thinks move wont have a massive effect on PS3 hardware :P (ie hope)

Anyway, I feel dirty saying this, but I do have to agree with the statement that the PS3 will not catch up to the 360, but I'm not going to make a big deal over it. The two are clearly going to be extremely close in total install base for the entire generation. They will be so close infact, that saying one is outselling the other is pretty insignificant.

In the PS3 vs XBOX360 war, I think motion controls are going to make or break the win. Here are a couple of my thoughts.

I think Kinect will steal the show (doh, I'm biassed probably), but let me tell you why:

1) Pre-order count (this is still VGchartz :P)

2) On our report of an interview with a Dutch Microsoft Executive on Kinect (who has also worked for Sony for over 5 years), he shows the difference of commitment between Sony and Microsoft. Microsoft is going full-out in promoting Kinect, booths everywhere, flyers everywhere (check your local store). Move is nowhere, only on big game conferences (or am I wrong?).

3) Hardcore gamers have been dissing the Wii for ages: Kinect is more techie/trekkie interesting thing that you can get away with in nerd-coolness

4) Casual gamers really love Kinect, all these girls that just love Dance Dance Central, Kinectimals et cetera: people that are currently never ever going to buy an xbox360 will do now. Viva pinata wasn't cutting it, but Kinect will (in my view). Seeing Mom-websites report on Kinect: very positive (huge impact?). Twitter-bieber-ish-girls: very positive

5) casuals will never buy a ps3 if the wii offer similar features (in their view) for $200 less

6) People that had a Kinect experience are going to share it with their friends (becuase Microsoft is posting their video on http://www.kinect.me/ ): viral social marketing to the max. Where is Sony? And don't forget, all the launchgames have an option to post your pics to facebook: this may account for viral effects post-launch if people are talking about: what are you doing on that picture?! - and the ones posting thier images on facebook are generally positive, otherwise there's no reason to post it. You trust your friends in purchasing decisions (marketing 101)... so Win for Microsoft!?

To sum up: hardcore gamers have an excuse to buy Kinect [futuristic tech savvy awesomeness (to some extent)], doubting casuals may now come to the xbox (and not the ps3), viral effects are huge (Microsoft is committed, and really on the sharing part of things). I really do think they figured the right strategy out.

What is your view on these arguments?

forgone Conclusion.

Basically your saying that the Kinect will outsell the Move because it's new, different, interesting, and because Microsoft is really pushing this peripheral by advertizing, and that VGChartz is tracking significantly More Pre-Orders for the Kinect Sports bundled Kinect then the Sports Package Move with Sports champions. I agree with everything, except #3, you can't generalize that. I know a lot of people who think the Kinect AND Move are a gimmick, where Wii is legitimate.

As for the Kinect on girls and Moms (#4), they will love Dance Central, but the Kinect 360 package is still $300. So I don't see the Kinect taking off for this reason too much. Just Dance was only a game on the Wii, and it managed to sell 4 million units, but at $300, I think Kinect won't push as well to girls and moms. I think whats going to happen is girlfriends and moms of guys with a Kinect 360 will learn about Dance Central and other sports games, and then tell their friends about it, but at least for the first year, Kinect will only have modest sales.

So I agree, and I think people should really look at your #1, 2, and 5 points in particular. #6 is also true, but not that big of a deal.