maxer said:
Thanks for taking the time to seriously reply to some arguments.
I think #6 is majorly important: who else is going to tell the casual user about Kinect? This is THE way to get into loads of networks where Move cannot go. Casuals don't start a conversation on 'whow.. move was soo cool'... because the problems is: it's not so different from Wii: People know that stuff.
However, your point on price is taken. $300 sounds like a lot: and Microsoft should work on getting that down ASAP. But the number of pre-orders still stand: 100,000 on this thing: holy cr*p. I think pricing is right, but needs to go down a bit more for casuals. First movers/gadget phreaks will buy it anyways, despite its price. [btw: iPhone costs way more, so its just a matter of making decisions, money may not even be the problem... convincing may]
On #3: well, is that true? Is Kinect not really different from all the Wii/Move stuff? Is this not Holodeck v0.2, more so than wii/move? (I'm not sure, that's my gutt feeling. Lookig forward to some arguments though - see you know people that don't think so.. but if you think about it... )
|
I agree with you that casual gamers won't go nuts about the Move, but your #6 message was about facebook photos with Kinect essentially helping it's sales. I agree with it, but I feel any casual gamer who loves their kinect so much that they will use the facebook upload photo feature, will simply tell their friends about the console. Facebook will help because people get to see the fun a person is having, but I'm still skeptical. I don't think facebook will make a huge difference in Kinect sales, but it will help.
As for price, Iphones sell for $200 with a three year contract. Kinect will still sell, I estimate over 10 million units, but it won't replace the Wii and migrate casual gamers. If they somehow sold a Kinect-360 for $250, and Nintendo doesn' make a price cut and keeps their console at $200, then maybe Wii owners will move to Kinect, but if Microsoft makes that price cut, Nintendo will make a price cut too.
Nintendo can also do many things to cut Kinect sales, they can easily make more Wii-ware games, and I bet you a Wii successor is already ready, Nintendo is just waiting for wii sales to drop before they introduce it, and during the next couple years they are finding ways to make it cheaper to produce, and improve in quality. I mean the DS was in development since the Virtual Boy failed, thats like 10 years.
As for #3, I am saying you can't generalize Hardcore gamers as finding the Wii as a Gimmick. Many hardcore gamers find Wii a gimmick, and Kinect as something really innovative and creative. Everyone has a different opinion on things.
From my closer group of friends, everyone likes the Wii. Most people wouldn't buy one because they own a PS3 or a 360, and the people who own a Wii, own a PS3 or a 360 as well, but still love it. I myself own a PS3 and a 360, but not a Wii. I still love the console, I borrow it from a friend with Mario Kart, and I do own Metroid Prime 3 and Smash Bros Brawl.
Back to your #3 point, I only mean to say that you can't generalize the Wii as a gimmick to hardcore gamers, but separate Kinect. What you can say is that to many gamers the Kinect looks more amazing then a Wii, and that would be true. Many can be verified by it's 100k pre-order buzz, and comparing that to Move's 25k Americas Pre-orders only 3 weeks before launch, you can argue that the Kinect appears more popular.
